AIR - Air NZ.

[noodles]

Susceptable to long term changes in fuel prices too. Perhaps that market expects there to be on going trouble in Iraq. More than normal that is.

Yes, probably more relevant than my thoughts.

[modandm]

Hi all,

Yes I think a bit of profit taking, and a very late reaction to the Iraq issues. US airlines had been down much earlier and I was surprised AIR had held up in the high 220's so easily.

The operating statistics came out this week and I was very pleased with them. At the start of the year I was forecasting 2% pax revenue growth, and a few brokers were forecasting 0%. About 3 months ago it looked like only 1.5% would be achieved, but since then there has been stronger RPK and yield growth which I think gets us to 2.1% for the full year. This is good momentum to take into FY15, where I am assuming 6% growth. I think this is conservative given the CFO told me they expect 8% RPK growth. I think it will be less in the first half and pick up to 8% in the second. I am assuming pretty flat yields, but it possible 1-2% growth here too.

On a base case I think around 29-31cps is realistic, with 35c a bull case.

I will do more analysis on how the accounting for VAH is likely to impact in the next few months, but I feel the market will probably continue to ignore VAH and its P&L impact. Honestly hard to understand why the market is valuing AIR so lowly given growth and VAH stake - I don't believe there is any value of VAH currently implied in the AIR share price. It's almost like the market just values AIR on its dividend yield! (thankfully dividend growth has been 50% this year and is likely to be 50% again next year! 12c-18c based on 60% payout. I continue to call for higher dividends or a special dividend, who know we could get a 7.87c special dividend at FY? that would be good!

[Beagle]

^ Like you I've been keeping a close eye on the monthly operating stat's and am pleased with load factors and RPK growth.
Air is very well positioned from a strtegic perspective with a very strong financial position and a good forward order book of new aircraft. The Dreamliner appears to be over its intial teething problems and as these stretched versions are first in the world and I assume state of the art in terms of fuel cost and were ordered during the GFC I'd expect that AIR would have obtained a sizeable discount and can look forward to meaningful operating efficiencies. Further these deliveries are occurring when our currency is very strong lowering their cost in N.Z. dollars. The stock is very cheap in my opinion. There will always be risks with any business and i think the corrction in light of the tick up in oil price, (a significant percentage of which has now corrected back towards a more normalised range) is over-done.

The usual scaremongers and investment houses with their own agenda's are out there claiming were going back to $150 a barrell oil again...I'll believe it when I see it. There's vast quantities of shale oil now in production in North America and plenty more coming into development, shale oil is ideal for processing into heavy fuel such as diesel and jet fuel.

My thinking is that once the American's send the necessary military drones into Iraq we'll see a stabilisation in the influence of the new extremists who've caused this disruption.

I see really good value in AIR at the current price with the prospect of excellent profit and fully imputed dividend growth in the years ahead. Forbar's ability to pick stocks has never impressed me, (I was a client of theirs for many years). Yes AIR has had a good run but I think there's plenty more to come

[biker]

I sold the last of mine last week in the 2.20's . Have had a great run from 87c and happy to take profits. Good luck to holders. Should be more up side yet.
Now looking for Virgin to perform, with the added help of 3 new and experienced directors on the board.
This will help drive the AIR sp but the risk/reward ratio with VAH appeals to me more, at the point where it's share price is still pretty beaten up but with plenty of upside if they get it right.

[Zaphod]

I sold the last of mine last week in the 2.20's . Have had a great run from 87c and happy to take profits. Good luck to holders. Should be more up side yet.
Now looking for Virgin to perform, with the added help of 3 new and experienced directors on the board.
This will help drive the AIR sp but the risk/reward ratio with VAH appeals to me more, at the point where it's share price is still pretty beaten up but with plenty of upside if they get it right.

I completely agree. VAH now also have significant capital available to them via the consortium of airline investors, and an exceptional opportunity before them to grow the Australian market while Qantas is down for the count and bleeding. Keep a close eye on their Op Stats.

[Beagle]

I sold the last of mine last week in the 2.20's . Have had a great run from 87c and happy to take profits. Good luck to holders. Should be more up side yet.
Now looking for Virgin to perform, with the added help of 3 new and experienced directors on the board.
This will help drive the AIR sp but the risk/reward ratio with VAH appeals to me more, at the point where it's share price is still pretty beaten up but with plenty of upside if they get it right.

Asset backing in the late 20 cents per share range, (trading at 45 cents) with significant losses and no dividends ? I struggle too see the attraction but good luck too you and as you suggest if they do perform that'll help AIR along.
From Air's perspective i do see the attraction as they're able to offer a seamless and extensive product offer into Australia, e.g. Airpoints members we're offerred flights on the all new Dreamliner into Perth from 15 October for $429 each way and part of the marketing was a range of additonal destinations in Western Australia available as add-on's for modest additional cost.

I'm hoping for a final divvy of 7 cps, (up from 5 cps last year) for a total of 11.5 cps this year, (fully imputed), and this places AIR on a gross dividend yield of 7.5% for the 2014 year with excellent prospects for future dividend growth with strong cash flows and the balance sheet in excellent shape with record low gearing. I think dividends will be very strong in the years ahead as the Govt loves cash even more than shareholders do to help makes its books look strong

[Beagle]

I completely agree. VAH now also have significant capital available to them via the consortium of airline investors, and an exceptional opportunity before them to grow the Australian market while Qantas is down for the count and bleeding. Keep a close eye on their Op Stats.

I can't see the heavily wounded Kangaroo rolling over and playing dead like an old Labrador.

[biker]

I can't see the heavily wounded Kangaroo rolling over and playing dead like an old Labrador.

No, likewise, but stats out today don't indicate a Kangaroo acting like a young huntaway either.

Summary of Traffic and Capacity Statistics
Month of May 2014
Qantas Group passenger numbers for May 2014 were in line with the previous year. Group capacity
(Available Seat Kilometres) increased by 3.0 per cent and Group demand (Revenue Passenger Kilometres)
increased by 1.5 per cent, resulting in a revenue seat factor of 73.4 per cent which was 1.1 percentage
points lower than the previous year.
Demand at Qantas Domestic in the month was negatively impacted by weak consumer confidence and
business sentiment. On 21 May 2014, Qantas announced that in response to changing conditions in the
domestic market, total domestic capacity growth (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink and Jetstar
Domestic) will be zero in each of the first three months of financial year 2015 compared to the prior
corresponding period.
Financial Year 2014
Qantas Group passenger numbers for the financial year to date (31 May 2014) increased by 1.1 per cent
from the previous year. Group capacity increased by 1.1 per cent and demand decreased by 1.2 per cent,
resulting in a revenue seat factor of 77.4 per cent which was 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous
year.
For the financial year to date, Qantas Group yields were lower than the prior corresponding period. Total
Domestic (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink and Jetstar Domestic) yields were lower than the prior
corresponding period as a result of market capacity growth and weak demand. Total International yields
were lower than the prior corresponding period due to persistently high levels of competitor capacity growth
into Australia

[Beagle]

No, likewise, but stats out today don't indicate a Kangaroo acting like a young huntaway either.

Agreed but I can't see the over-capacity issue in Australia being solved through economic growth anytime soon so I suspect turning Virgin around will be easier siad than done notwithstanding board and shareholder changes. Time will tell, we both want the same thing mate

[RTM]

What puts me off AIR Anything is that one pilot error, heaven forbid, could have a major effect on the share price.