AIR - Air NZ.

[777]

Ah you're to quick off the block. Good to know the grammer police are on the case.

It is too quick off the block.. and it's grammar.


Sorry , couldn't resist.

[dobby41]

Ah you're to quick off the block. Good to know the grammer police are on the case.

Sorry but language is important.
It didn't develop the way it has just to piss people off.
I was trying to imagine what sort of fair you could have on a aeroplane. Obviously not a cheap one

[Beagle]

Some very good specials on grabaseat to Honolulu today. $633 return from Auckland. I continue to expect consolidation around the current level until we see the viability on numbers at the annual result.
The caveat is any escalation is verbal or physical hostilities over North Korea which would obviously affect all airline stocks to some degree. Holding for long term dividend yield including expected big special dividends in FY20-FY23 during their capex holiday.

[biker]

0, none, nil, nothing and zilch. Their gearing is near the top of the self determined range so lets be clear, there is no point buying now if your sole reason is to get a special dividend this year. On the other hand if you are prepared to wait until 2020-2023 year this is a very very rich time when capex for the company is negligible and its tremendous free cash flow could throw up some extremely juicy specials, (yes plural). In the meantime expect normal annual dividends fully imputed of approx ~ 20 cents per annum split pretty evenly between the half and full year.

I think you may find Capex in 2020-2023 is quite high. They will be making a decision on the replacement for the 777-200s at the end of this year. Airline capex holidays can often be short lived

[bull....]

back under 3 soon i reckon

getting there but slowly , nth korea situation wont help

[Beagle]

I think you may find Capex in 2020-2023 is quite high. They will be making a decision on the replacement for the 777-200s at the end of this year. Airline capex holidays can often be short lived

Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing. Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

[couta1]

getting there but slowly , nth korea situation wont help

That aside, TA indicators entering oversold territory.

[777]

Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing thereof.
Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

In my opinion biker is correct in his assessment.

[Robomo]

Disagree. They are doing nothing more than an initial aircraft type scoping study this year. I think you'll find the decision and negotiations will be quite protracted and any meaningful initial deposits won't occur until well into next decade. Its clear to me they now have a very strong focus on discipline around carefully measured growth and I expect that to flow through into their capex decision making and timing thereof.
Don't forget they've only just completed a thorough refurbishment of the 777-200 fleet so I would expect a remaining useful life of approx. 10 years.

Agree with Beagle. The 777-200's are probably good until at least 2025 (20 years old by then for the oldest) so it's likely that's when they'll start a replacement program. Plenty of time to negotiate a good deal, particularly as orders for big new planes are slowing down and both Boeing and Airbus will be keen to get confirmed orders to keep the production lines going. 8+ years lead time is not unusual for new aircraft such as the Boeing 777X and Airbus equivalent so an order from a reputable established airline like AIR works well for the manufacturer. Lots of wheeling and dealing to be done yet, so it will be a year or two yet before an order is negotiated.

[Beagle]

That aside, TA indicators entering oversold territory.

Agree...selloff of 4% looks a little overdone relative to all other airlines I follow which are generally down 1%. Welcome back mate.