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28-09-2017, 09:41 AM
#12361
As mentioned yesterday, yield and fuel prices are inextricably linked. Let me unpack that a bit for those that don't know. Lots of foreign carriers don't hedge at all. For example, many Chinese owned airlines are forbidden to hedge, lets face it the cost of hedging is quite high. As fuel moves higher the intensity of competitive airfares slackens off and net yield increases.
I have maintained for quite some time that AIR is more competitive with its modern fuel efficient fleet when Oil is $70 than when it is dramatically cheaper than that as some long established airlines like Qantas for example are still flying a lot of older fuel hungry but less capital intensive planes around. QAN will get hurt from this far more than AIR who will shortly have 11, (count em) really fuel efficient Dreamliner aircraft flying. If oil stay's where it is I expect yield to go up about 2-3% over time which on over $4 billion of passenger sales recovers the extra fuel costs and the hedging gains will be cream on top of that !
Last edited by Beagle; 28-09-2017 at 09:42 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-09-2017, 10:57 AM
#12362
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
As mentioned yesterday, yield and fuel prices are inextricably linked. Let me unpack that a bit for those that don't know. Lots of foreign carriers don't hedge at all. For example, many Chinese owned airlines are forbidden to hedge, lets face it the cost of hedging is quite high. As fuel moves higher the intensity of competitive airfares slackens off and net yield increases.
I have maintained for quite some time that AIR is more competitive with its modern fuel efficient fleet when Oil is $70 than when it is dramatically cheaper than that as some long established airlines like Qantas for example are still flying a lot of older fuel hungry but less capital intensive planes around. QAN will get hurt from this far more than AIR who will shortly have 11, (count em) really fuel efficient Dreamliner aircraft flying. If oil stay's where it is I expect yield to go up about 2-3% over time which on over $4 billion of passenger sales recovers the extra fuel costs and the hedging gains will be cream on top of that !
Don't forget the A320/321 neo (new engine option) aircraft that will start arriving next year with a 15% fuel burn reduction on the current A320 ceo (current engine option). These neo aircraft will eventually replace all 14 A320 ceo's that Air NZ are using to fly the trans-tasman and Island routes.
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28-09-2017, 11:02 AM
#12363
Originally Posted by Robomo
Don't forget the A320/321 neo (new engine option) aircraft that will start arriving next year with a 15% fuel burn reduction on the current A320 ceo (current engine option). These neo aircraft will eventually replace all 14 A320 ceo's that Air NZ are using to fly the trans-tasman and Island routes.
Good point. A good question for today's annual meeting would be to ask if AIR are happy that these new engines have had their reliability problems sorted out.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-09-2017, 02:47 PM
#12364
My guess is it went well judging by the sp
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28-09-2017, 03:14 PM
#12365
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
Good point. A good question for today's annual meeting would be to ask if AIR are happy that these new engines have had their reliability problems sorted out.
Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.
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28-09-2017, 05:12 PM
#12366
Originally Posted by Robomo
Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.
Yes the hound followed through on that question and I am happy with the reply and yes there was a very good confident tone at the meeting. I spoke with Chris Luxon after the meeting and am more than happy with answers to other questions we discussed. I thanked him for his hard work and for having the balls to get rid of Virgin. He seemed to really appreciate that. Onward and upward. He seems happy at AIR and relishing the challenge of driving further solid growth. Company is happy with first quarters trading performance as you would have heard online. Happy holder but less than impressed with the afternoon tea.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-09-2017, 05:18 PM
#12367
Originally Posted by Robomo
Comprehensive reply by Chris Luxon to this question - deferring delivery by a year to allow various reliability problems to be sorted out. I listened online, was that a Beagle I heard asking that question? Generally, the outlook for Air NZ looks good, no wonder the sp went up today.
Yes, that was Beagle asking about the outboard motors and it all sounds good. Also noticed Beagle had Chris Luxon cornered at the after meeting Cup o tea time chin wagging and shaking hands all round. Good meeting over all, but could do with a bit more food and parking. Ellerslie racecourse would be a good venue next time. Forest, we lost you at the tea party, where did you go?
Last edited by see weed; 28-09-2017 at 05:30 PM.
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28-09-2017, 05:54 PM
#12368
Good to see you there mate. Its no secret that I think Chris Luxon is a very clever guy and we are very fortunate to have a man of his caliber at the helm
Airpoints update to members.
Hello Mr Beagle,
Now that Refining New Zealand’s fuel supply pipeline to Auckland has been restored, fuel has begun to flow once again to Auckland Airport and jet fuel allocations for airlines have been raised to 80 percent of their usual volumes.
I’m pleased to advise that this means our schedule is now operating largely as normal as we head into the busy school holiday period.
While we don’t anticipate the need for further flight cancellations, until we’re able to uplift 100 percent of our usual fuel volume we cannot rule out the possibility of occasional refuelling stops. We’ll continue to monitor the need for this on a daily basis and should your flight be required to undertake a refuelling stop we will be in touch with you directly to let you know.
On behalf of the airline, I’d like to say thank you to everyone who has shown patience and flexibility over the past fortnight. It is greatly appreciated.
Thank you once again and we hope to see you onboard soon.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-09-2017, 08:46 PM
#12369
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01-10-2017, 02:32 PM
#12370
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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