AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

AIR still over priced according to guru analysts at FNZC

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...tlook-fnzchtml

[Beagle]

AIR still over priced according to guru analysts at FNZC

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...tlook-fnzchtml

Yes real guru's...had it at fair value at $2.55 for many many months now and clients that followed their advice left as much as $1 on the table for others to enjoy. Thanks ! Now they upgrade their SP target as things get slightly tougher for AIR ??? Bizarre, go figure ? By upgrading their price target now that headwinds are starting to emerge do they tacitly admit they were ever fundamentally miles off the mark before ? Clients of theirs probably best not to be holding their breath waiting for an apology for getting it so wrong before are they ? Oh and seeing as they got it so wrong before why should we believe their analyst now ?

Do they bother to try and understand the absolute basics that yield and fuel costs are inextricably linked ? Do they bother to factor in special dividends in their investment time horizon ? They have been consistently negative on AIR for a number of years now and have got this one very badly wrong over the last year so I for one cannot think of any good reason to believe their latest version of the so called truth. I doubt their analyst doing this research has any talent.
My 3 cents worth on them.

[Justin]

If you think it’s great company, it always have to add some premium value + fair value

[cyclist]

Yes real guru's...had it at fair value at $2.55 for many many months now and clients that followed their advice left as much as $1 on the table for others to enjoy. Thanks ! Now they upgrade their SP target as things get slightly tougher for AIR ??? Bizarre, go figure ? By upgrading their price target now that headwinds are starting to emerge do they tacitly admit they were ever fundamentally miles off the mark before ? Clients of theirs probably best not to be holding their breath waiting for an apology for getting it so wrong before are they ? Oh and seeing as they got it so wrong before why should we believe their analyst now ?

Do they bother to try and understand the absolute basics that yield and fuel costs are inextricably linked ? Do they bother to factor in special dividends in their investment time horizon ? They have been consistently negative on AIR for a number of years now and have got this one very badly wrong over the last year so I for one cannot think of any good reason to believe their latest version of the so called truth. I doubt their analyst doing this research has any talent.
My 3 cents worth on them.

Beagle has got his growl on.

[Snow Leopard]

...My 3 cents worth on them.

You have an inflated opinion of the value of your opinion .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Beagle has got his growl on.

Once upon a time I realized I'd put too much food in my beagle's food bowl and in the interest of trying to keep excessive weight off her I tried to take some back while she was eating it. It doesn't matter how good the bond is between a man and his dog you only ever do that once in your pet Beagle's life... if you value your fingers. Clipping her claws was pretty risky business too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjhS7GaQIIA

[Beagle]

You have an inflated opinion of the value of your opinion .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Fact's speak for themselves and FNZ originally had a price target IIRC of just on $2 and raised it to $2.55 a very long time ago and now raise it again now that headwinds are starting to emerge which is clearly illogical...all they are doing by upping their price target now is trying to cover up their monumentally incorrect earlier assessments. Of course you might opine yet again how your valuation is now XYZ but I find it interesting how your's is almost always so close to the mean average of analysts. Too scared to put a paw out of line...meow

[Baa_Baa]

This is fun.

[Oliver Mander]

Beagle, this particular cat is prepared to put a claw or two on the line, to protect the integrity of the forum felines. $4.07 as underlying value (not including any dividends paid of course - that would reduce it).
An assumption or two in the model that drives that, but not so many as to make me worried.

be interested to see whether there are any of my relations around (such as tigers) who may hold a sharply differing opinion.

The biggest factor in this is probably the "return factor" used to assess fair value - and whether it sticks, or whether we're back to the bad old days I remember as a kitten, with oil-price induced airline cash volatility...
This cat has shares in an oilco as well as AIR, just in case...

Now baa-baa, are there any little lambs prepared to put their neck on the chopping block...? what do you think?

[Brain]

Highly competitive industry ,outlook not great for profit growth. Around $3.40 seems fair value if they can maintain their profit. I have halved my holding in this over recent weeks. Happy with the profit since my buy in was $2.10 average + Dividends.The chart may also indicate that the investing community is also beginning to be a bit wary of the share.