AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

I reckon $2.87 is about the real value ...taking everything into account

[Raz]

I reckon $2.87 is about the real value ...taking everything into account

I'm around $3 with a view downward as it moves with the whole international sector, I have a strong belief tourism world wide has an issue with accommodation availability and overall cost it contributes to trips for the great middle market, the problem is not the cost of flights. I note dips in attendance number in world wide tourism spots like NYC, Orlando & London etc. Brexit is coming to a head and oil..Northern sentiment could easily change to the downside.

[Beagle]

Just getting the last bit of barking off my chest as this does frustrate the hound because institutions read First's "professional" analyst reports.... I note they have been persistently the most negative analyst on AIR over a very sustained period of time. Before this update they were at $2.55 which I believe is a price they have had for many many months.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/consensus/
A cynic, (of which its clear I am one) would say they had to upgrade as they were at such a dramatic and professionally embarrasing variance to their peers with the average view of analysts at $3.20. A hardened cynic might observe that they have belatedly and apparently begrudgingly simply followed the market up in terms of their guidance, albeit dragging the chain both in terms of timing and value compared to other analysts. Now they have finally moved the revised average once adjusted into 4 traders figures will be $3.26 according to my calculations.

For the first time in a very long time, (and regular readers will know the hound has been barking vocally positive far in excess of average analyst views for quite some time with this puppy, unlike some who have held a very dim view for a VERY long time) I find myself in line with average analyst views taking all current known information into account. (I was more positive a couple of months ago but oil has gone up, the currency down and yield gains compared to last year have undershot my estimates by about 2%). I had hoped seeing as yield this time last year were dramatically affected by 10 new entrants to the market that yield gains this year would have been more pronounced.

I update my view on the company every time we get monthly operating stat's. Some analysts only update their viewpoint twice a year.

P.S. Interesting to note one professional analyst has a $3.90 value on this one.

[Snow Leopard]

What's with the AIR crash today?

Surely not over this Link: Air New Zealand's warning over summer peak flying ?

Nice plane picture:


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Good advice in that article but I would add that parking at Auckland Airport is now presenting as a major challenge at peak times. If you have a mid morning flight don't just assume you can turn up at the Auckland airport and find a park quickly and get to the terminal quickly. Often the only parks available, (if any), are right at the far end of the carpark. Allow an extra 15 minutes to find a carpark, (yes you can end up going around and around and around looking for one) and another 5 to walk to the terminal if you're parked at the furthest point, most likely, plus the usual time to get through security. The other issue is how long does it take to get to Auckland airport ? the answer can be how long is a piece of string and this is presenting as another real challenge for Auckland travelers in particular.

Rob McDonald selling some shares might have spooked the market a little. Readers will know I think this is an extremely well managed company so I am happy to put my paw up for a few more on sale today.

[Oliver Mander]

Given decline in THL and AIR, wondering if its speculation around tourism taxes...???

[winner69]

Today's drop in shareprice just the whims of the market on a Friday

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down

No worries ....be all right again next week

[Oliver Mander]

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down

Nooooo. ........really?????

[Beagle]

Today's drop in shareprice just the whims of the market on a Friday

Jeez - even Metro Glass is down

No worries ....be all right again next week

Yes late Friday afternoon is often a period of slight weakness of AIR shares which some shareholders like to take advantage of, myself included.
https://simplywall.st/news/2017/11/0...mited-nzseair/

[Oliver Mander]

Yes late Friday afternoon is often a period of slight weakness of AIR shares which some shareholders like to take advantage of, myself included.
https://simplywall.st/news/2017/11/0...mited-nzseair/

Well well - they are saying their value is $4.09....(as per my earlier post, mine is $4.07).
How interesting.
Heavily cashflow-based of course....no accounting for market 'traditional' sentiment towards airlines in general.

The beta comment is interesting...in the short run (3-6 months), AIR has been relatively close to market (beta of 1). But over 12 mths or more, the correlation has been more defensive; my own calcs show the 12 month beta is 0.57. Meaning in theory, its a good stock to hold as the market declines.