AIR - Air NZ.

[gbogo]

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment is not a sound strategy, as can be seen on this thread, people just post according to their positions and agenda.

I find forum sentiment to be a useful contributory indicator. Sometimes, for contrary action; sometimes for uncovering sentiment not present in more public arenas. (and I recognise that I contribute to that sentiment sometimes..)

[BlackPeter]

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment is not a sound strategy, as can be seen on this thread, people just post according to their positions and agenda. If you have held for Ten years there will have been many days when oil rose or fell by several percent.

Selling on the strength of forum sentiment alone is certainly not a strategy likely to create consistently desirable results ... but I agree with gbogo, it is often a quite useful additional indicator. The share price is a combination out of fundamental value and market hype and forum sentiment is correlated with market hype. Ignore it at your peril.

If I look at AIR's situation overall, than I agree with beagle - if there is a good time to sell it, than it probably is now. Increasing oil price, tourism likely at a peak, increasing oil prices and the Damocles sword of further Rolls Royce engines disassembling themselves during flight (hopefully in a safe way) hanging over AIR and any other proud owner of the Nightmare-liner ... what good reason might there be to stay in AIR at current PE?

Obviously everybody's own assessment how they rate risk and what premium they demand, but it looks like the market made up its mind. SP currently close to the MA200. It might be a good idea for holders to closely watch this line ... typically not a good sign if the SP falls through that ;

Discl: Don't hold and no, I don't know either how the AIR SP is going to develop ...

[Raz]

Yeah, the negatives here currently feel like stepping in an alternative universe :-)

[peat]

testing support

[couta1]

testing support

First time it's breached the MA200 for nearly a year, thought I'd save Beagle from saying it. Cyclical reversal on the cards?

[gbogo]

break down through $31.2 suggests $2.60 next stop.

[Beagle]

air.jpg
200 day MA $3.144, closed at $3.10. Breakout to the downside of the slowly converging 100 - 200 day MA curve lines as predicted. Expect more trouble ahead.

[peat]

You guys are quoting 200 SMA as $3.14 (and I can see that is what findata quotes) but my chart has it quite a bit lower at $2.95. Even the EMA is set lower than 3.14 for me - at $3.02

But in any case my support line was not based on a MA but on the clear evidence that $3.12-14 has been an area where support has been found numerous times. Purple line. Note this was an area of resistance in 2016 as well (Resistance becomes support) Interestingly this is also the area where there was a gap back in June last year (marked). Gaps often get filled. So it is possible this dip is just that filling happening. But I dont really believe that hence my position.

MA's are relatively arbitrary imho (ANZ securities Supercharts doesnt even provide a 200 MA) so I take more from the historical price action itself than any particular MA.

Also worth noting is that the MACD histogram has now gone negative.

Attachment 9393
For a better quality pic see this https://i.imgur.com/PuX3YLm.png



(Disclaimer - short , evil I know!)

[winner69]

First time it's breached the MA200 for nearly a year, thought I'd save Beagle from saying it. Cyclical reversal on the cards?

A real cyclical reversal (long term cycle) would take share price sub $2

AIR share price behaving like that AIRplane I watched taking several attempts to land at WLG last night and appeared to land with the wind behind it

[Beagle]

You guys are quoting 200 SMA as $3.14 (and I can see that is what findata quotes) but my chart has it quite a bit lower at $2.95. Even the EMA is set lower than 3.14 for me - at $3.02

But in any case my support line was not based on a MA but on the clear evidence that $3.12-14 has been an area where support has been found numerous times. Purple line. Note this was an area of resistance in 2016 as well (Resistance becomes support) Interestingly this is also the area where there was a gap back in June last year (marked). Gaps often get filled. So it is possible this dip is just that filling happening. But I dont really believe that hence my position.

MA's are relatively arbitrary imho (ANZ securities Supercharts doesnt even provide a 200 MA) so I take more from the historical price action itself than any particular MA.

Also worth noting is that the MACD histogram has now gone negative.

Attachment 9393
For a better quality pic see this https://i.imgur.com/PuX3YLm.png



(Disclaimer - short , evil I know!)

Not evil, it always takes at least two to make a market...wish I was short...talk about an almost certain money making position !