AIR - Air NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

"Nothing sweeter than a repeater"..wouldn't mind betting a bob you're getting ready for another short.

The day after the 50EMA/200MA death cross (down), what happens? It bounces nicely. Go figure. That $2.89 horizontal support seems to have worked bouncing the price back up to the magical $3.00 where it stalled, unless it's a bull trap setup (note light volume), but even that scenario seems a bit conspiracy theory. Another daily up tomorrow (through and close above $3) and I reckon it'll have a go at the MA's crossover, albeit still that's below the descending resistance trend line.

[Zaphod]

Happy to be completely out now at 3.20.

Trump began the trade war with China today. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the markets over the coming months.

[Oliver Mander]

It might be interesting times indeed Zaphod...but on fundamentals Air NZ is now trading on a forward P/E of around 8.4.

Oil price rising or not (and it hasn't risen THAT much), that seems inordinately cheap to me. Operating stats are not supporting a massive slide in patronage...so Mr Market is assuming something about margin I guess. Yet there's been no negative views from the company on this front. Share price could rise 10% overnight and still be on a solid P/E.

[sb9]

It might be interesting times indeed Zaphod...but on fundamentals Air NZ is now trading on a forward P/E of around 8.4.

Oil price rising or not (and it hasn't risen THAT much), that seems inordinately cheap to me. Operating stats are not supporting a massive slide in patronage...so Mr Market is assuming something about margin I guess. Yet there's been no negative views from the company on this front. Share price could rise 10% overnight and still be on a solid P/E.

And strengthening NZD (currently @ .7359 USD) also eases the pressure of rising crude oil costs.

[cymonger]

It might be interesting times indeed Zaphod...but on fundamentals Air NZ is now trading on a forward P/E of around 8.4.

Oil price rising or not (and it hasn't risen THAT much), that seems inordinately cheap to me. Operating stats are not supporting a massive slide in patronage...so Mr Market is assuming something about margin I guess. Yet there's been no negative views from the company on this front. Share price could rise 10% overnight and still be on a solid P/E.

It actually is still a solid buy. It just falls out of favour with people so quickly from a "sentiment" perspective. That engine stuff gave some people pause, but in end it's gonna be another really good year. I think it's likely this stock will be both $2.50 and $3.50 at some point this year. I guess a savvy trader could make money in both directions.

[BlackPeter]

It might be interesting times indeed Zaphod...but on fundamentals Air NZ is now trading on a forward P/E of around 8.4.

Oil price rising or not (and it hasn't risen THAT much), that seems inordinately cheap to me. Operating stats are not supporting a massive slide in patronage...so Mr Market is assuming something about margin I guess. Yet there's been no negative views from the company on this front. Share price could rise 10% overnight and still be on a solid P/E.

Actually - long term (7 year) PE is just 13.9. The forward PE of 8.3 sort of highlights that the market expects this stock to drop from its cyclical highs ...

And yes, there are some risks - for some reason my Inbox seems to attract more and more offers for really cheap flights (too much competition? I do my best, but I can't really fly that much) - and than, there is still AIR's nightmare-liner issue ...

But sure - it always can go higher - but it can keep dropping as well, and given that the stock is in a confirmed down trend (XoD and all these things), am I not sure I would take the chances.

discl: don't;

[blackcap]

And yes, there are some risks - for some reason my Inbox seems to attract more and more offers for really cheap flights (too much competition? I do my best, but I can't really fly that much) - and than, there is still AIR's nightmare-liner issue ...


discl: don't;

Yeah, just looked at flights to Paris return in July/August and getting quoted $1680 return... crazy cheap and for that time of year too.....

[Oliver Mander]

Actually - long term (7 year) PE is just 13.9. The forward PE of 8.3 sort of highlights that the market expects this stock to drop from its cyclical highs ...

And yes, there are some risks - for some reason my Inbox seems to attract more and more offers for really cheap flights (too much competition? I do my best, but I can't really fly that much) - and than, there is still AIR's nightmare-liner issue ...

But sure - it always can go higher - but it can keep dropping as well, and given that the stock is in a confirmed down trend (XoD and all these things), am I not sure I would take the chances.

discl: don't;

Don't necessarily disagree on the competitiveness elements...am convinced that is indeed a 'drag'.
But where do you get your 7 year income figure from to get a P/E of 13.9? Net income is forecast to rise again from 2020 I thought...

Anyhoo, I tend to take airline forecasts with some salt, positive or negative...if anyone knows the oil price in 7 years time, can they please let me know? Would love an early retirement...:-)!
??

[BlackPeter]

...
But where do you get your 7 year income figure from to get a P/E of 13.9?
...

From my (typically well maintained) company database. If you want to check - just read the last 7 annual reports and do the numbers ;

[Beagle]

Seems cheap enough at about 8.5 times this years earnings but the market is a forward looking beast and once their forward cover on oil runs out mid year what are they going to be paying for fuel in FY19 and will they be able to recover any of that (extra $200m ?) with yield improvements ? Long term their average PE is about 11 so maybe the current price is about right considering worries about fuel price next financial year ? That said they're not anywhere near out of the woods with their engineering issues with those dodgy engines yet... I'm still expecting a very cautious tone to their half year results presentation next month. Far more likely to see $2.50 in the near term than $3.50 in my opinion. Disc: Interested at $2.50 not at $3.00.