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Thread: AIR - Air NZ.

  1. #12811
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Seems cheap enough at about 8.5 times this years earnings but the market is a forward looking beast and once their forward cover on oil runs out mid year what are they going to be paying for fuel in FY19 and will they be able to recover any of that (extra $200m ?) with yield improvements ? Long term their average PE is about 11 so maybe the current price is about right considering worries about fuel price next financial year ? That said they're not anywhere near out of the woods with their engineering issues with those dodgy engines yet... I'm still expecting a very cautious tone to their half year results presentation next month. Far more likely to see $2.50 in the near term than $3.50 in my opinion. Disc: Interested at $2.50 not at $3.00.

    I'm with you on this one, I'll get into this one at closer to $2.50 with the current market environment. I'm a bit worried now in the interim that the dodgy engine issues and the fuel prices will eat into yields. The company is already so highly geared, it needs a few more good years at the current financial level to get that gearing to where I would like it to be. If not it could be a rocky time for one or two FY's.

    I'm sure we'll get more commentary at the HY announcement.

  2. #12812
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    I had always thought higher fuel prices would be somewhat helpful in a way as competition will decrease. They still have the domestic market stitched up but I agree there would be a cautious tone to the outlook which they generally take even when tailwinds are in play.

    No market updates since last guidance so my guess is they are doing ok. Suspect negotiations in play with regard to compensation over engines and impact on flights but other than the planned work on the fox being brought forward I don’t see significant impact going forward. Keen to jump back in on the rollover coaster when price comes back down

  3. #12813
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Singapore canned WLG - Canberra flights and going to do WLG-MEL instead (with council subsidies believe it our not)

    AIR and QAN struggle on this route so will no doubt cut a flight or two a week out.

    Singapore got an offer out WLG-MEL $312 RETURN.Apparently $185 of that is taxes / charges etc leaving $65 on each leg for Singapore

    It’s all stupid eh ...but might go for Melbourne for a few days to catch up with a few mates.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #12814
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Cheap as chips mate. Go for it.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #12815
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Singapore canned WLG - Canberra flights and going to do WLG-MEL instead (with council subsidies believe it our not)

    AIR and QAN struggle on this route so will no doubt cut a flight or two a week out.
    What makes you think AIR and QAN are struggling on WLGMEL?

  6. #12816
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mush View Post
    What makes you think AIR and QAN are struggling on WLGMEL?
    Probably struggling not the right word but not one of their busiest and at times not always full.

    Probably quite lucrative capacity wise if they ‘manage’ the number of flights between them.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #12817
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Whoops

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/100...ld-too-cheaply

    Thank goodness they been cancelled for shareholders sake
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #12818
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Whoops

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/100...ld-too-cheaply

    Thank goodness they been cancelled for shareholders sake
    Why not just honour it and put it down to marketing ....Is the bad press really worth it ?

  9. #12819
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Why not just honour it and put it down to marketing ....Is the bad press really worth it ?
    Shouldn’t happen these days with all these high powered computers

    If I was in charge i’d ask for the system to send out alarm bells if any price was below a certain percentage of normal ......just to check

    Most of those customers are unhappy but betcha that person who still has an internal US flight are more than unhappy
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #12820
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Why not just honour it and put it down to marketing ....Is the bad press really worth it ?
    classic....see a lot of negative press on this in the US current on social media...

    Winner are you aware the level of subsidy you are paying as a rate payer to Singapore airlines for ten years, the have a competitive advantage now on the new route :-)

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