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25-05-2018, 10:05 AM
#13471
Member
Originally Posted by Filthy
there is a mistake somewhere - they must mean SELL/REDUCE (the valuation they have is $2.60).
well, they finally figured it out an updated it to reduce lol
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25-05-2018, 10:29 AM
#13472
Originally Posted by Filthy
well, they finally figured it out an updated it to reduce lol
I think what happened is that one of the data providers had AIR at an SP of 0.0003 or something. Morningstar picked that up and at that price AIR clearly is a buy. Now fixed, it seems
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28-05-2018, 12:29 PM
#13473
Pretty solid numbers for April operating stat's and AIR have some good forward cover on oil for the balance of FY18 and the first half of FY19 which has a present value of ~ $49m and ~ $30m respectively but the cupboard is basically bare in terms of forward cover from 1 January 2019. They'd be hoping all their fuel efficient 787's are fixed by then, (but I doubt it).
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/279987.pdf
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-05-2018, 04:14 PM
#13474
GOLLY GOSH! COULD/MUST BE POSITIVE FOR AIR ??
ENERGY: Oil futures resumed tumbling after taking their worst losses in months on Friday, battered by reports that OPEC countries and Russia could start pumping more oil soon. Benchmark U.S. crude tumbled $1.99 a barrel to $65.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped $2.83 to settle at $67.88 on Friday. Trading in Brent crude, used to price international oils, was suspended for a holiday in Britain. Oil producing countries cut output at the start of 2017 following a big supply buildup and agreed last year to extend those cuts through the end of 2018, but according to reports last week, they might agree to start raising production in June.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12060182
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28-05-2018, 05:28 PM
#13475
Speaking of fuel costs its interesting that AIR are taking legal action over the ruptured pipeline.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12057826
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-05-2018, 05:44 PM
#13476
Originally Posted by Beagle
Interesting? Commercially prudent - there's a strong case here for AIR. Are you holding AIR, Roger?
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28-05-2018, 06:17 PM
#13477
Originally Posted by Hectorplains
Interesting? Commercially prudent - there's a strong case here for AIR. Are you holding AIR, Roger?
I find it commercially interesting in that I would have thought the parties would have already held detailed discussions and seeing as BP "strongly denies" and is defending the claim and Z is also defending the claim that the fuel companies would have the best handle on the specific fine detail of their fuel supply contract as that's all they do.
I find it difficult to imagine their isn't some "Force Majeure" or "Act of God" supply interruption clause in their agreement and find it difficult to imagine how AIR propose to sheet home some allegedly negligent digger operator's actions on a aging pipeline owned by N.Z. refining onto a legal claim against the fuel companies ?
What are we talking about here ?, perhaps $1m+ in costs hiring a top commercial QC and if they lose they'll potentially cop substantial costs from the other parties. Maybe its just a tactic to get the fuel companies to the negotiating table ?
I made an uncharacteristic mistake when selling recent in the high 330's and left myself with a very small parcel which I'm keeping just because I like aviation as an industry. I'll be back to holding a far more meaningful stake when the headwinds subside.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-05-2018, 06:48 PM
#13478
Originally Posted by Beagle
I made an uncharacteristic mistake when selling recent in the high 330's
Don't beat yourself up, selling higher than it is now is not a mistake, especially for predominantly an investor who hasn't missed a dividend and has avoided capital losses. Nimble traders might have re-entered for a modest capital upside from around $3 but even then, that was a gamble, and it's small beer gains and has gone sideways for 11-12 weeks and could go anywhere from here.
jmho
BAA
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28-05-2018, 10:17 PM
#13479
its a crazy situation re liability, and depends of course on all sorts of contracts we are not privvy to...
but it could go back to the insurers of the pipeline so perhaps AIR's broker should talk to NZR's broker, and each one of them can put good pressure on the assessor both directly and via an expensive claim preparer - who will of course be paid for by the insurer. Then of course there is thrashing out any ambiguities in the precise wording, and all costs and savings having to be identified and supported. Niggles and snags all to be worked through. The handler then may need to get confirmation of intention from the underwriter. Rinse and repeat a few times before settlement can be agreed. It takes time and a few more people clip the ticket.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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30-05-2018, 12:12 PM
#13480
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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