AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Enjoy, good stuff

Have you thought of presenting those passenger numbers and RPKs as a moving annual total .....would be only 2 lines on a chart and we could see how fast the line is going up

[Beagle]

	July	August	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Total
Passengers carried 2014/15	1,055	1,046	1,185	1,093	1,090	1,431	1,071	1,138	1,507	1,167	1,030	1,341	14,154
Passengers carried 2015/16	1,355	1,126	1,252	1,144	1,185	1,514	1,139	1,240	1,534	1,204	1,071	1,215	14,979	5.83%
Passengers carried 2016/17	1,356	1,175	1,500	1,226	1,232	1,595	1,182	1,268	1,613	1,285	1,165	1,357	15,954	6.51%
Passengers carried 2017/18	1,404	1,228	1,567	1,318	1,332	1,691	1,254	1,335	1,753	1,384	1,239	1,471	16,976	6.41%
Revenue passenger kilometres 2014/15	2,247	2,193	1,326	2,141	2,117	2,960	2,604	2,442	3,055	2,410	2,105	2,919	28,519
Revenue passenger kilometres 2015/16	3,001	2,428	1,409	2,401	2,381	3,497	2,858	2,694	3,294	2,568	2,257	2,688	31,476	10.37%
Revenue passenger kilometres 2016/17	3,069	2,589	3,371	2,614	2,570	3,583	2,954	2,749	3,321	2,711	2,401	2,922	34,854	10.73%
Revenue passenger kilometres 2017/18	3,058	2,660	3,408	2,781	2,667	3,678	3,026	2,923	3,682	2,933	2,608	3,220	36,644	5.14%

Passengers still steadily increasing, although revenue passenger kms have a slight dent in them. Graphs attached.
Attachment 9830

PS Has had a peek at the AIR's fuel hedging recently? 2017H2 saw -952k net compensation. 2018H2 on track for 48M net compensation. Not an accountant so unsure how that flows through to financials.

Excellent work and welcome to the forum.

[Snow Leopard]

...Passengers still steadily increasing, although revenue passenger kms have a slight dent in them. Graphs attached.
Attachment 9830

...

Absolutely fascinated by that September dip in RPK in 2014 & 2015.

So obviously wrong, you used the short haul total instead of the group total, did you not think to sanity check them?

[Enjay]

Absolutely fascinated by that September dip in RPK in 2014 & 2015.

So obviously wrong, you used the short haul total instead of the group total, did you not think to sanity check them?

Have a check yourself here: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/mont...ting-data-2016

The figures are the group, not short haul. Prepared late at night, as is the custom with hobby traders. Mistakes my own.

[Snow Leopard]

Have a check yourself here: https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/mont...ting-data-2016

The figures are the group, not short haul. Prepared late at night, as is the custom with hobby traders. Mistakes my own.

Yes I checked before I first posted which is why I can repeat, but in a reworded way, that for Sept-14 & Sept-15 you used the short haul numbers instead of the group numbers that you used elsewhere.

Otherwise, the explanation for the September dip would be that passengers decided to get off about half way through the flight.

[Enjay]

Yes I checked before I first posted which is why I can repeat, but in a reworded way, that for Sept-14 & Sept-15 you used the short haul numbers instead of the group numbers that you used elsewhere.

Otherwise, the explanation for the September dip would be that passengers decided to get off about half way through the flight.

Yes, you'll notice the two figures have been corrected.

Do you have any views on AIRs remarkable net compensation from fuel hedging? Be more interested to hear analysis on that than four year old passenger numbers etc.

[Beagle]

Yes, you'll notice the two figures have been corrected.

Do you have any views on AIRs remarkable net compensation from fuel hedging? Be more interested to hear analysis on that than four year old passenger numbers etc.

AIR's policy with fuel hedging is to hedge in such a way as to give them time to adjust their business model. Over the long run AIR pays a handsome price to achieve this objective as the cost of hedging is quite substantial and ongoing regardless of whether they end up in the money or out of it with their fuel collars. They seem to persist with it so clearly believe the ~ $15m cost per annum is worth it in terms of giving them time to adjust pricing and capacity as required. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...567/279987.pdf

They don't hedge everything so their net fuel cost will still be quite significantly higher this year than last, (notwithstanding significant net compensation from this year's hedging program) when fuel costs were significantly lower but that said they recently maintained they're on track to beat last years profit so everything looks satisfactory to hold this company for its 9% gross dividend yield. Oil price is a key risk in regard to FY19 earnings but perhaps worth noting that according to the last fuel hedge disclosure in May 2018 they had 74% of their fuel requirements covered for the first half of FY19 with a net compensation of ~ $29.5m.
They seem to be "on a roll" with their fuel hedging recently.

[dreamcatcher]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...as-replacement

[winner69]

This leased plane from EVA seems a pretty good one ......must be to tout EVA as an award winning airline (maybe better than AIR themselves)

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12097653

I am almost speechless. I would have thought plugging into the airports electricity and route / thrust setting / load optimization would have been something that should have been happening going back decades. Who knows, maybe Joe public is fooled by this latest public relations greenwashing.