AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Yeap that is a cracker. Shows their strong focus on cost control is paying dividends....something AIR need to work harder at.

CASK improved

I reckon our man Chris must be getting bored now and not as enthusiastic as he was a few years ago. Been at AIR too long and maybe looking around for a new challenge / job. That retention amount probably keeping him but staying on for a few million isn’t always the most motivating.

What you think beagle

[value_investor]

I second Beagle's analysis.

Just a few points to make in airline stocks. A lot of the time, airlines can do things right and operate efficiently like AIR has done delivering better CASK numbers and still see adverse results because of factors outside their control. The fuel costs were $135m higher which is almost the same cost of paying an 11c dividend as per their FS ($130m).

Looking at the outlook, I'm not sure if an 11c dividend would be maintainable if jet fuel prices climbed again to higher levels especially at the lower end of that $425-525m range. The dividend itself at 11c twice a year is $260m and then you have to factor in further investment which is bound to happen. Then you have to factor in potential raise in interest rates in the next 1-2 years.

I still think that the yield justifies holding the stock in the short term. However, if you are going to be in this one for longer than that just be prepared to have some ups and downs, especially investing in this industry.

[couta1]

Happy with that result, forecast is just playing it safe IMO, great resilient business so buying today. PS-Happy to chase it down if anyone's keen to offer any up under $3.30.

[Beagle]

CASK improved

I reckon our man Chris must be getting bored now and not as enthusiastic as he was a few years ago. Been at AIR too long and maybe looking around for a new challenge / job. That retention amount probably keeping him but staying on for a few million isn’t always the most motivating.

What you think beagle

Sorry I didn't get time to listen in on the call today mate. Been looking after myself a bit today. Getting out and enjoying the odd bit of sunshine and eating well. Read an interesting long article on depression in a mens magazine. Will try and get time tomorrow to have a listen to the replay...must be a link somewhere and post some further thoughts including whether Chris seems enthusiastic. Its been a pretty tough year with one thing and another...good resilience but that RR issue looks sticky and that sort of thing must be grinding his gears a bit.

Might start a new thread on coping with the winter blues in the off market section soon...see what idea's others have.

[blackcap]

Might start a new thread on coping with the winter blues in the off market section soon...see what idea's others have.

That's easy if you can take the time off work and have a place that you can call home: Fly AIR to Europe from about mid July to mid August and lose 1 month of the worst of winter and get a month of the best of summer. Trying to do that every year from now on, have done the last 3 years and can recommend. If you book early enough can get a return ticket for about $2,000 incl taxes and we normally get a few days in either Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore to break the trip and see some other part of the world at the same time

[Raz]

That's easy if you can take the time off work and have a place that you can call home: Fly AIR to Europe from about mid July to mid August and lose 1 month of the worst of winter and get a month of the best of summer. Trying to do that every year from now on, have done the last 3 years and can recommend. If you book early enough can get a return ticket for about $2,000 incl taxes and we normally get a few days in either Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore to break the trip and see some other part of the world at the same time

Yeah why not just work six months of the year and make sure you use air as much as possible to get away, it does seem to help as well😂 the person and me as a shareholder 🤔

[Beagle]

That's easy if you can take the time off work and have a place that you can call home: Fly AIR to Europe from about mid July to mid August and lose 1 month of the worst of winter and get a month of the best of summer. Trying to do that every year from now on, have done the last 3 years and can recommend. If you book early enough can get a return ticket for about $2,000 incl taxes and we normally get a few days in either Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore to break the trip and see some other part of the world at the same time

Work pressure much too intense at this time of year. Happy for you though.
Price down 4% today much as I expected as stated in post #13712.
Looking forward to the analyst downgrades and recommendation to clients coming through tomorrow to reduce. They will take this as good research without realizing the SP has already adjusted and hopefully smack this down below fair value, maybe to $3.20 or hopefully even less. This hound is poised to pounce

[couta1]

Work pressure much too intense at this time of year. Happy for you though.
Price down 4% today much as I expected as stated in post #13712.
Looking forward to the analyst downgrades and recommendation to clients coming through tomorrow to reduce. They will take this as good research without realizing the SP has already adjusted and hopefully smack this down below fair value, maybe to $3.20 or hopefully even less. This hound is poised to pounce

My itchy fingers got the better of me and I loaded up today just in case some sanity prevails and it stabilises tomorrow. If people follow hollow analyst recommendations them I'm ready to add more of course.

[Snow Leopard]

Fuel this year was $927M
Current estimate for next year is $423M more or 45% high​er at $1,350M

[compare QAN: $3B23 to $3B92 21% higher ??]

With a 'normalised' mid-point forecast of $475 NPBT down only $65M on this FY18 then they are doing pretty well.

Assuming that US$85 per barrel and NZ$/US$ of 0.66 into FY2020 that would raise the fuel bill again.

Also I have heard sensible talk of future expanded margins on Jet over Crude due to the increased demands of aircraft, and the low sulphur regs for shipping in 2020, though of course some disagree.

But the price of a barrel rarely stays still for long, so who knows?


On another note I am confused as to just how many A32XNEOs AIR have on order, I hear 24 from reliable sources but I can not match that to the AIR docs.

[winner69]

Dreamliner to Shanghai turned back to AKL this morning