AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Guidance range for FY19 is wide, some punters don't like that, I remember last time they gave a wide range like that the price dropped then they upgraded along the way and nailed the top end.

[dobby41]

We missed our connecting flight ( Air Chathams ) and despite not being obliged to assist AIR put us up for the night in a hotel.I was immensely grateful as was travelling with 86 year old Mum - but shareholders might not be so happy.

I hate airlines as a sector but even with that strangely I do want to nibble at AIR. Stop your barking Beagle. You are probably right about it having a place in a portfolio though.

This shareholder would be quite happy that you were looked after - repeat business is very important. More important than short term profit.

[dobby41]

You can have faults that are not necessarily related to the engines.

Exactly!
Could been anything that would make the pilots uncomfortable for the next 10 hrs.
I'd rather they turn back than go 'oh bugger' later.

[Beagle]

https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/83kn7br9 The call.

[peat]

Could been anything that would make the pilots uncomfortable for the next 10 hrs.

Like a broken seat ?
(see my earlier post)

[couta1]

Good support on close at $3.235, with a nice fat divvy locked into that price and a Sept 6th Ex date I'm expecting divvy seekers to turn up next week.

[dreamcatcher]

Good support on close at $3.235, with a nice fat divvy locked into that price and a Sept 6th Ex date I'm expecting divvy seekers to turn up next week.

AIZ finished @ A$3.02 which equates to NZ$3.305 so be interesting on Monday

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...407/consensus/

As expected some pretty sizeable downgrades for FY19. Average broker 12 month ahead target price now just $3.15. In line with where I see it too. Worth a bit more trading cum an 11 cent divvy but ostensibly a yield story at this level.
On a theoretical ex divvy price of $3.125 and assuming they can pay 22 cps going forward (they could be stretched a bit to do this in FY19 with fairly sizeable capex and only 28 cps earnings but I still think it is likely the board will maintain it because capex eases off significantly in FY20 and then further again in FY21). Lots of references to sustainable dividends in their presentation this week so the board won't want egg on their face next year if they can help it will they !

(22 / 312.5) / 0.72 = 9.78% gross yield + possible special(s) early next decade. Pretty sound investment case from a yield perspective in my opinion although not without risk in terms of where the fuel price will go and how long the RR fiasco will continue to be a thorn in the companies side.

HOLD.

[couta1]

https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...407/consensus/

As expected some pretty sizeable downgrades for FY19. Average broker 12 month ahead target price now just $3.15. In line with where I see it too. Worth a bit more trading cum an 11 cent divvy but ostensibly a yield story at this level.
On a theoretical ex divvy price of $3.125 and assuming they can pay 22 cps going forward (they could be stretched a bit to do this in FY19 with fairly sizeable capex and only 28 cps earnings but I still think it is likely the board will maintain it because capex eases off significantly in FY20 and then further again in FY21). Lots of references to sustainable dividends in their presentation this week so the board won't want egg on their face next year if they can help it will they !

(22 / 312.5) / 0.72 = 9.78% gross yield + possible special(s) early next decade. Pretty sound investment case from a yield perspective in my opinion although not without risk in terms of where the fuel price will go and how long the RR fiasco will continue to be a thorn in the companies side.

HOLD.

Maybe $3.20 ex the divvy I'd say but could trade up to $3.40 depending on the big boys, retail fish have no influence on the SP for more than a short period, the Govt and insto's own 97% of the stock.

[BlackPeter]

Maybe $3.20 ex the divvy I'd say but could trade up to $3.40 depending on the big boys, retail fish have no influence on the SP for more than a short period, the Govt and insto's own 97% of the stock.

Not sure - price is set by trading, not by owning. Government might have impact on the stock price every time one of their populist ministers is making inappropriate noises, but otherwise: their ownership is quite irrelevant to the price finding. Same with instos - they only impact on the price if & when they are actively trading (but yes, they might).