AIR - Air NZ.

[Joshuatree]

Latest news

Lion Air crash: Investigators say plane was 'not airworthy' - BBC Newshttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46121127
"Pilots tried to correct this by pointing the nose higher, until the system pushed it down again. This happened more than 20 times.
It is unclear why the pilots did not employ procedures to disable the automated system."
Lion Air: Pilots fought automatic safety system before plane crashed ...https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/28/asia/lion-air-preliminary-report-intl/index.html

[winner69]

October op stats not as strong as recent months but still pretty good

Forex seems to be favourable insofar as revenues go.

[winner69]

Could make a start by stop making those stupid (or are they cringeworthy) expensive safety videos

Good to see them saving their way to prosperity ...shareholders should be happy

But oil is heading into the $40s so doubly rewarding for AIR

Oil still tumbling ......


........and the fares went up recently didn’t they ...good

[Beagle]

Oil still tumbling ......


........and the fares went up recently didn’t they ...good

Stat's were solid, happy with that.
Fuel hedge is out and will see AIR burning fuel at slightly higher prices than the prevailing spot price for much of the remainder of FY19. About 70% hedged so some benefit to accrue from current spot.
I see they getting into puts and calls on the jet - Brent crack spread now too at up to $18 barrel.
Just as well Chris is doing his greenie thing wherever he can eh and looking into hybrid planes...nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil to be consumed in Q3 alone.

All things considered, (including the ongoing engine fiasco) I think the shares are fair value at around $3.00 - $3.10. Gross yield at $3.05 (22 / 0.72) / 305 = 10%
Holding a modest stake (as part of a well diversified portfolio) for that very good yield appears to be a reasonable strategy.

P.S. I see Chris Luxon had a pretty big pay day today. Sold 1.5 million shares for ~ $4.5m. Must be building a pretty fancy deck.

PPS - Interesting article on the various aspects of the new route to Chicago https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12167726

[value_investor]

Been holding for a couple years now and agree that $3.00 is probably close to fair based on current crude prices. Its been a bumpy ride on that regard. I bought in at a decent price but for now I'm only just holding onto it for the awesome yield, but it will be interesting if it can sustain it going forward into such a volatile marketplace.

[Baa_Baa]

Been holding for a couple years now and agree that $3.00 is probably close to fair based on current crude prices. Its been a bumpy ride on that regard. I bought in at a decent price but for now I'm only just holding onto it for the awesome yield, but it will be interesting if it can sustain it going forward into such a volatile marketplace.

Your yield is related to your SP buy price and dividends (earnings) paid out, so after you've bought in, it isn't affected by the SP head price changes regardless of the market. As long as AIR keep paying out excess profits along similar lines to recent history and your buy-in price is/was low enough to generate a nice yield, SP becomes irrelevant. Unless you sell, then your overall yield is affected by the difference between your buy price and your sell price, plus earnings in between. Yield is a good way of looking at and managing investments.

I tried to say that in plain english, the accountants here might have a more refined way of expressing how yield works for investing long term, versus focusing on SP, unless looking for a nice yield generating entry price.

[blackcap]

Your yield is related to your SP buy price and dividends (earnings) paid out, so after you've bought in, it isn't affected by the SP head price changes regardless of the market. As long as AIR keep paying out excess profits along similar lines to recent history and your buy-in price is/was low enough to generate a nice yield, SP becomes irrelevant. Unless you sell, then your overall yield is affected by the difference between your buy price and your sell price, plus earnings in between. Yield is a good way of looking at and managing investments.

I tried to say that in plain english, the accountants here might have a more refined way of expressing how yield works for investing long term, versus focusing on SP, unless looking for a nice yield generating entry price.

It depends on your definition of yield does it not? For example you may buy AIR fora "yield" of 5% pa by buying the shares at $3.00. But if the shares are trading at $2.00 in 5 years time then what is your yield on your investment in AIR? What if AIR never gets back to $3.00 and starts cutting dividends.
Or alternatively what if the SP goes up to $4.00 in 5 years time? For me yield is the realisable value of the investment plus any dividends returns received divided by the number of years invested (then a small calculation to allow for compounding to get yield in real terms) For example to me a 50% return over 5 years is an annual yield of 8.5% (1.085 to the power of 5 is close enough to 1.5)

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/AIR-N...07/financials/
Yield is showing in here as net forecast yield. Most people will gross that up for imputation credits at 28% by dividing the forecast yield number by 0.78.
For example in FY21 average broker forecast is for dividends of 24.9 cps / 0.72 = 34.58 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits.
34.58 / 309 = 11.2% forecast looks pretty attractive to me.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12168490

Christopher looks happy...as I suppose he would be after a $4.5m pay day this week selling down some shares the board kindly allotted him.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12168490

Christopher looks happy...as I suppose he would be after a $4.5m pay day this week selling down some shares the board kindly allotted him.

O’Hare reports it made it safely after 16 hours and a bit

Beagle and a few others — Warning as a Kapa Haka is shown

https://twitter.com/fly2ohare/status...78301650845697