AIR - Air NZ.

[bull....]

Just remind us - what did the previous health scares (like SARS, Ebola, ....) do to the NZX? I doubt that this will make any meaningful dent, but potentially we might see some buying opportunities for anything tourism related ...

while it is early days in the virus outbreak to know if it is going to be a big problem. an astute investor should always access risk weather real or perceived. so china as one of nz biggest incoming tourist markets would be a big impact if say all china people were banned from entering nz because of a full blown world pandemic

[bull....]

actually just released

china has banned all travel

Wuhan Is Going Under Quarantine no one allowed to travel from city

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22...unar-new-year/

[bull....]

China may have also drastically under reported the number of people infected by a mysterious coronavirus that has since spread around the world.

But there are fears that figure could be as high as 10,000, with warnings the new strain is "as deadly as Spanish flu" which killed 50 million people

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12302723

[bull....]

and here in NZ where we have so many chinese coming and going everyday , the govt sits on there hands doing nothing while many many countries are rushing to put screening in place. think movis bovis etc etc border security is so slack here

[BlackPeter]

actually just released

china has banned all travel

Wuhan Is Going Under Quarantine no one allowed to travel from city

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22...unar-new-year/

Not quite. They banned all travel from Wuhan. The remaining 1374 million Chinese people who don't live in Wuhan are still free to travel wherever they please (and can afford).

[bull....]

Not quite. They banned all travel from Wuhan. The remaining 1374 million Chinese people who don't live in Wuhan are still free to travel wherever they please (and can afford).

at the moment , but if it gets worse who knows? by the way when sars broke out full on markets fell 10%

[BlackPeter]

and here in NZ where we have so many chinese coming and going everyday , the govt sits on there hands doing nothing while many many countries are rushing to put screening in place. think movis bovis etc etc border security is so slack here

Lets face it - given the incubation period is 2 weeks (which is quite long) - what exactly do you expect authorities to do? The "scanning" implemented by other countries only catches people who are already sick, but not during the incubation period.

Sure - we could just ban all travel (i.e. kill of import, export, tourism - i.e. livelihoods) ... but even then is it likely that we have already infected people in the country ... which will fall sick in due course ...

[BlackPeter]

at the moment , but if it gets worse who knows? by the way when sars broke out full on markets fell 10%

cheers - i.e. nice little correction might be ahead ;

[bull....]

Lets face it - given the incubation period is 2 weeks (which is quite long) - what exactly do you expect authorities to do? The "scanning" implemented by other countries only catches people who are already sick, but not during the incubation period.

Sure - we could just ban all travel (i.e. kill of import, export, tourism - i.e. livelihoods) ... but even then is it likely that we have already infected people in the country ... which will fall sick in due course ...

as many countries are doing is preventative measures to prevent a big outbreak becoming a big gdp impact event. NZ as usual will probably only do something when **** hits the fan like someone dying from it bit like movis bovis only did something when it was too late.

[Blue Skies]

Just remind us - what did the previous health scares (like SARS, Ebola, ....) do to the NZX? I doubt that this will make any meaningful dent, but potentially we might see some buying opportunities for anything tourism related ...

Interesting question.
At the time of the SAARS outbreak, Statistics NZ figures showed visitor numbers from Asia fell by 26.8% & from the US & by 9.7% compared to the same month previous year. AIR had to reduce capacity on Asian routes for 6 months as load factors dropped by 5.7%.

The Ebola outbreaks occurred mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo & West African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea & Nigeria none of which we have direct flights to or significant travel between.

With around 30 flights a week between NZ & China and over 400,000 international arrivals a year from China, am sure the govt & airline & tourism industry keeping a very close watch on this latest epidemic.

However, to keep some perspective, 17 deaths out of a population of 11.8 million in Wuhan so far.

I've always thought contagion & resulting panic is one of the biggest risks to airline industry & it's not if but a question of when.
Apart from the travellers, how would the company deal with a situation where pilots and cabin crew refused to expose themselves to the risk by flying to a destination. I don't believe the airline could impose that on anyone.