AIR - Air NZ.

[bull....]

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand cuts more flights

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12313941

demand obviously falling rapidly

[Blue Skies]

Sure ... though I doubt they considered in this analysis global warming and flight shame. Linear extrapolations are sometimes useful, but always wrong :

On top of that - one of their "working assumptions" to come up with this numbers was that the trend to globalization continues. I doubt that.

Anyway - I think the current discussion is more around whether it is more fun to buy AIR for $2.00, $1.00 or $0.50 per share. No matter how much or little you pay, you always end up with the same share of the airline which may or may not have a great future.

Why paying full price if you can get it some weeks later as well at a nice discount?

Yes well I have to admit I halved my holding at beginning of January even before Coronavirus struck due to challenges AIR facing with RR Dreamliner engines not even beginning to be solved for at least another 18 months.
Then have sold almost rest of holding recently as this does look really ugly.
Everyone I know postponing/cancelling holidays & with no travel insurance I cant imagine how anyone could take the risk.
One of our family members ended up in hospital in the US and the eventual bill was well over US $100,000 - fortunately covered by insurance.

[winner69]

Once an airline gest into strife it doesn't take much to tip it over the edge

Flybe broke (again)

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nounces-rescue


Gwyn Topham, the Guardian’s transport correspondent, predicts this morning that Flybe won’t be the last. Virgin has enacted emergency money-saving measures after bookings halved; Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights to Italy and elsewhere; BA has even cut transatlantic flights; and Donald Trump has held crisis talks with US airline bosses

[Raz]

Once an airline gest into strife it doesn't take much to tip it over the edge

Flybe broke (again)

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nounces-rescue


Gwyn Topham, the Guardian’s transport correspondent, predicts this morning that Flybe won’t be the last. Virgin has enacted emergency money-saving measures after bookings halved; Ryanair and easyJet have cancelled hundreds of flights to Italy and elsewhere; BA has even cut transatlantic flights; and Donald Trump has held crisis talks with US airline bosses

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/d...versity-travel

Just more examples of a further step down in demand, when main NZ organisations reduce travel domestically expect things to financially deteriorate quickly for AIR

[iceman]

Amongst some of the airline news from Europe today, FlyBe gone into receivership and Lufthansa Group parks up 150 planes and cancels 7,100 flights in March, about 25% of its schedule. Their shares down 5.5% today and 22% since Feb 21

[Balance]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sou...ks-51583422748

Airlines stocks getting hammered - ugly day for the sector.

US$100 billion expected in losses for airline sector.

Guess another earnings downgrade for Air NZ may be on the cards.

[Beagle]

IATA just came out and just on quadrupled their estimate of the impact globally on airlines from their earlier estimate in February.
Many North American carriers down 12-13% overnight.
Some cruise lines down ~ 15% overnight.
I expect AIR will go under $2 in the very near future.
Several experts on CNBC saying the sector is basically un-investable at present, (Airlines, cruise ship operators, hotels and other tourism stocks).
Extremely serious implications for AIR, THL, SKC and Skyline enterprises in my opinion.

[dr_]

'This is a crisis.' Airlines face $113 billion hit from the coronavirus

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/05/busine...vel/index.html

[Beagle]

'This is a crisis.' Airlines face $113 billion hit from the coronavirus

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/05/busine...vel/index.html

Thanks for the link. I can't help wondering what IATA's estimate of the financial impact will be a month from now ? My guess is it could very easily quadruple again.

AIR to downgrade outlook substantially in the next couple of weeks or just play it safe and withdraw guidance altogether and say we can no longer estimate the impact ?

[Blue Skies]

IATA just came out and just on quadrupled their estimate of the impact globally on airlines from their earlier estimate in February.
Many North American carriers down 12-13% overnight.
Some cruise lines down ~ 15% overnight.
I expect AIR will go under $2 in the very near future.
Several experts on CNBC saying the sector is basically un-investable at present, (Airlines, cruise ship operators, hotels and other tourism stocks).
Extremely serious implications for AIR, THL, SKC and Skyline enterprises in my opinion.

Govt must desperately need this AIR dividend, which must be only thing holding up the SP, but can't imagine there'll be any future ones after this for some time.
Noticed a serious change in tone from Public Health officials in last day or two. Is it too late now for AIR to cut this dividend?
If there was a sudden announcement next week, SP would drop like a stone.