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13-03-2020, 02:45 PM
#15791
Originally Posted by blackcap
At what price are you looking to exit your short Beagle? And would you be going long at that price or just locking in profits?
Hi mate. I am 90%+ sure this ends with a bailout by the Govt so to answer that question one ends to look at the theoretical price the Govt would effect this.
I need to do some work on this and reexamine the detailed terms of the last bailout as its quite likely they will use that as a starting point for the new blueprint.
I'm more than 90% confident this all happens under $1. If anyone can find the all the specifics of the last bailout and post a link to it that would be greatly appreciated.
Pacifica festival cancelled. Thank goodness common-sense has prevailed. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12316342
Last edited by Beagle; 13-03-2020 at 02:55 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-03-2020, 03:01 PM
#15792
Member
Blackcap, remember the last time AIR went through the bailout? I was short AIR at the time as Ansett was down and out - AIR stock went into halt at 23cps after Helen Clark says on the news "at these levels i wouldn't be selling AIR". Can't remember what price the market reopened again, several days later - 60 or 70 cps but that profitable short became a loss for me and was the cause for a few sleepless nights.....
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13-03-2020, 03:05 PM
#15793
Member
This is a bit of a "dumb question" from someone who was primary school age when Air NZ got bailed out last time (and it's also a terribly "entitled millennial" question).
Let's say Air NZ does require bailing out again. What would likely happen to one's balance of Airpoint dollars? Owing to a lot of work-related travel over the last few years - all on ice now! - I've amassed a decent sum. Not going to be using it for any bookings any time soon, so trying to decide if it's worth ripping down to Mitre 10 to use them there for some new tools, garden furniture etc ... I presume they may be reduced to worthlessness if a bailout is required?
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13-03-2020, 03:06 PM
#15794
Originally Posted by ordop
Blackcap, remember the last time AIR went through the bailout? I was short AIR at the time as Ansett was down and out - AIR stock went into halt at 23cps after Helen Clark says on the news "at these levels i wouldn't be selling AIR". Can't remember what price the market reopened again, several days later - 60 or 70 cps but that profitable short became a loss for me and was the cause for a few sleepless nights.....
I can vividly remember the last time that AIR went through their troubles. Can remember trading it in large parcels as there were A and B shares at that time too with the B shares for foreign holders and the A shares for NZ residents. I know it was trading in the 19-24 range for a bit. However I cannot remember what the govt bail out price was. It did however mean that it was a going concern and that may have given the market a boost. Did AIR not have a largish consolidation not long afterwards so that these prices now have to be divided by 5 or 10 to get the pre consolidation effective price?
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13-03-2020, 03:10 PM
#15795
Originally Posted by blackcap
I can vividly remember the last time that AIR went through their troubles. Can remember trading it in large parcels as there were A and B shares at that time too with the B shares for foreign holders and the A shares for NZ residents. I know it was trading in the 19-24 range for a bit. However I cannot remember what the govt bail out price was. It did however mean that it was a going concern and that may have given the market a boost. Did AIR not have a largish consolidation not long afterwards so that these prices now have to be divided by 5 or 10 to get the pre consolidation effective price?
The bailout was at 25 cents and there was a share consolidation afterwards but I cannot recall the exact terms with any certainty. From vague memory it was a 1:5 share consolidation. I need to find this out somehow ? So far I have this https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2001/11/nz-n03.html
Last edited by Beagle; 13-03-2020 at 03:15 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-03-2020, 03:10 PM
#15796
Member
Too soon to worry, I would have thought samjay. I suspect if it ends up getting in that direction, there will be another warning or three along the path to that outcome.
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13-03-2020, 03:14 PM
#15797
Member
Originally Posted by cyclist
Too soon to worry, I would have thought samjay. I suspect if it ends up getting in that direction, there will be another warning or three along the path to that outcome.
Thanks. This is my first rodeo in terms of a big market dip (I was still at high school in '08) so a lot of learning to do. Trying to cover my bases from all aspects ... would hate to lose out on using them for something useful.
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13-03-2020, 03:15 PM
#15798
Member
1:5 consolidation (23 August 2004)
1:6 Ren Rights @ NZ$1.30 (8 Nov 2004)
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13-03-2020, 03:16 PM
#15799
Originally Posted by Beagle
The bailout was at 25 cents and there was a share consolidation afterwards but I cannot recall the exact terms with any certainty. From vague memory it was a 1:5 share consolidation. I need to find this out somehow ?
I made two notes at the time that are relevant:
21 Dec 2001 - Previously Air NZ "A" & "B" shares, they are now combined and are Air NZ Ordinary Shares
23 Aug 2004 - Share Consolidation (every 5 share consolidated into 1 share, fractional entitlement rounded up)
I will have a hunt through the paperwork tonight and see if I can find any more details
Edit: I see ordop beat me to it
Last edited by oldtech; 13-03-2020 at 03:17 PM.
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13-03-2020, 03:18 PM
#15800
Originally Posted by ordop
1:5 consolidation (23 August 2004)
1:6 Ren Rights @ NZ$1.30 (8 Nov 2004)
Thanks, yes that makes sense. And Beagle did just post that the govt got in at 25 cents.
Which would make $1.25 or thereabouts the same sort of price it was at back in 2004 when the Govt had to step in. Well we are not far off that now.
Last edited by blackcap; 13-03-2020 at 03:19 PM.
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