AIR - Air NZ.

[Lease]

Take care ... its a dangerous world out there. Never ever bet the farm!

No worries BP, I actually take very small position on AIR. The company won't disappear, and will recover once the world return to normal.

[bottomfeeder]

Let's see if SP can drop to 25C. If it does, I may sell my house to buy all AIR shares

Your house is worth 20% less in the last week.

[Lease]

Its not the end of the world. The Govt has to bail them out so as critical transport infrastructure is maintained in and to and from N.Z. (for example many essential pharmaceutical supplies arrive via air freight) With the unprecedented cuts coming to services they no longer have a viable business model, that's clear to anyone with an in-depth understanding of this company. They do not have the reserves to survive until a vaccine is developed. The only question in my mind is what form the Govt support will take and when will it be forthcoming ?
Last time in 2001 they waited until the share price was completely in the toilet and just one tenth of what it was before stepping in at 25 cents.

My base case assumption is they will step in earlier this time, perhaps at about 75 cents, half NTA, but anything can happen.

How did they survive after Sep 11? and oil price over $100 per barrel prior to GFC? and during GFC? It's not the first time AIR face challenges, but they went through and SP reached new high at $3.83 in August 2017.

I love everyone like you, extremely pessimistic, and knock down SP to 25C.

[Beagle]

How did they survive after Sep 11? and oil price over $100 per barrel prior to GFC? and during GFC? It's not the first time AIR face challenges, but they went through and SP reached new high at $3.83 in August 2017.

I love everyone like you, extremely pessimistic, and knock down SP to 25C.

Are you aware the Govt had to bail them out after 9/11 at 25 cents per share or that during the GFC they went down to under 70 cents per share ?
Do you understand that about 2/3rds of their network will be shut down over the next few weeks ?

[Lease]

Are you aware the Govt had to bail them out after 9/11 at 25 cents per share or that during the GFC they went down to under 70 cents per share ?

2001 bailout was not because of AIR performance, actually they still made operating profit that year. But failed investment on Ansett. GFC down to 70C so what? If you bought at 70C at GFC, you would sell at $3.83 in 2017, not bad return.

[Beagle]

2001 bailout was not because of AIR performance, actually they still made operating profit that year. But failed investment on Ansett. GFC down to 70C so what? If you bought at 70C at GFC, you would sell at $3.83 in 2017, not bad return.

Investment in Ansett weakened their balance sheet but the real issue was the collapse in demand after 9/11. Demand is collapsing worse this time and will be more sustained.
Delta CEO just came out on Friday this week and said they'd never seen a demand collapse like they're experiencing at present, not after 9/11, not during GFC, NEVER before.
Yeah, buying at the bottom of the cycle is smart, that's the one thing we seem to agree on. Good luck for tomorrow.

[winner69]

No worries - the rich and famous are going to be looked after

@CamWallace_NZ
As part of our response to the current travel restrictions our loyalty team are looking at options to ensure that high frequency customers retain status with @FlyAirNZ

[Lease]

Investment in Ansett weakened their balance sheet but the real issue was the collapse in demand after 9/11. Demand is collapsing worse this time and will be more sustained.
Delta CEO just came out on Friday this week and said they'd never seen a demand collapse like they're experiencing at present, not after 9/11, not during GFC, NEVER before.
Yeah, buying at the bottom of the cycle is smart, that's the one thing we seem to agree on. Good luck for tomorrow.

I know tomorrow AIR SP will collapse, and I'm happy to see it as so far my position on it has been very small.

[Arthur]

In the last two months in China around 44,000 have died in car accidents and 3,000 with CV19.

[Beagle]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...bs-in-jeopardy