AIR - Air NZ.

[hoyinma]

Thanks very much for all your suggestions. Shopping done and happy to be able to.

[Sideshow Bob]

With the way they're squeezing their suppliers, I personally wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole!

I've got quite a few APD that I had redeemed on flights, but I don't know yet what I'm going to do withe the balance. The AP store represents rather poor value.

Probably standard retailer behaviour, especially when expecting a downturn, and seen a huge risk-off currency move on the NZD. Stores are individually owned - and some are pretty substantial owners - so don't have any concerns. Anyway, off topic.

Indeed, not great value, but bit of a bonus when travelling for work and all the weekends have travelled on or been away. Might get some paint and do the house if we get to lockdown stage.

Not going to travel privately for a while.

[peat]

I bought Mitre 10 vouchers - dollar for dollar. 5 year expiry.

good idea , transfer the risk away from AIR. Got myself some winter thermals! Winter is coming!

[Beagle]

$ 1.08 ...Beagle you take your short back ?

No mate...I am clinging on to this short with "dogged" determination. The last bailout was at 25 cents and the funny thing about history, it has a strange habit of repeating ! Greg Foran is too nice a guy and other management don't care and know they will be there forever and a day because Grant Robertson has repeatedly said "we need a national airline". Too big to fail.

Management haven't got the gonads to make the changes they really need to or the will to do so and consequently minority shareholders simply cannot win. In effect, minority shareholders will end up wearing the vast majority of the losses while senior management dine out at their expense and the Govt will soon be back to collecting $500m+ total per annum in PAYE, GST, Tax, Interest and eventually dividends again. Being a minority shareholder in AIR is effectively a mug's game.

[macduffy]

Whatever the rights and wrongs of senior management remuneration Beagle, the fact remains that AIR would quickly become insolvent if it wasn't for the proposed govt funding. I'm sorry for minority shareholders' position but management are powerless to help in these circumstances.

[Beagle]

Whatever the rights and wrongs of senior management remuneration Beagle, the fact remains that AIR would quickly become insolvent if it wasn't for the proposed govt funding. I'm sorry for minority shareholders' position but management are powerless to help in these circumstances.

Admitted as much...that a shutdown was a real risk and this deal was chosen for speed. Their reassurance very recently that they have one billion dollars and have a strong balance sheet, just like they said right before they were bailed out in 2001, was weasel words just like last time. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12318483

For those that don't have access...a number of analysts have said the support is woefully inadequate and one suggested the airline is un-investable and is headed for nationalisation.

Greg Foran refused to be drawn on how long the $900m will last but did mention it should get them through a few tough months..my guess "few" = 3 months.
With international flights effectively on ice, the most interesting thing in this article was domestic demand was down...wait for it and this is not a typo.. 70% !!
From a business perspective this is ostensibly just a shell of its former self but still carrying the vast majority of its massive fixed costs, staff and overheads. I think they will be back with their begging bowl for more money within 3 months.

[peat]

a number of analysts have said the support is woefully inadequate and one suggested the airline is un-investable and is headed for nationalisation.

Yeh the forthrightness of that surprised me and to say it when the market was trading around a $1 seemed contradictory
but it is probably true.

I might have even considered another short but someone has said its been stopped haha. I doubt the broker is doing that out of kindness so probably de-risking themselves as we all are now.

[mikeybycrikey]

Greg Foran refused to be drawn on how long the $900m will last but did mention it should get them through a few tough months..my guess "few" = 3 months.

Given they are basically shutting down for 3 months (30 March–30 June), I think "a few tough months" is definitely more than 3.

[winner69]

Foran coming in for criticism for not doing much fronting up to the public and saying how bad things really are

Maybe it’s all too hard and who really wants to tell lies and say it’s all OK anyway and don’t worry

AIR in deep deep trouble ....would not surprise me if a statutory manager was iin charge soon.

[Beagle]

Given they are basically shutting down for 3 months (30 March–30 June), I think "a few tough months" is definitely more than 3.

Interestingly our own top expert suggests initial modelling shows Covid 19 won't even peak for 5 months ! https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartanntp
If it doesn't peak till August how long is the tail, another 5 months ?...then there's the question of how long it will take after that for the public to truly feel safe to fly again ?, maybe sometime in mid-late 2021 ?

I love the suspense of the possibility of a good corporate train wreck, (I am a bad dog), but there's so many to watch on the NZX and this one looks like a forgone conclusion already.

A cynic might suggest this so called rescue plan has been clobbered together with the express intention of nationalising the airline at the cheapest possible price in due course after minority shareholders have been wiped out ! One supposes they won't want to make it look too obvious so they will follow the previous blueprint and step in at 25 cents...again.