AIR - Air NZ.

[JeremyALD]

The market is bananas at the moment. AIA can also join the club of having me completely puzzled. Reading some of the comments on Sharsies I think buying shares are turning more into gambling, than buying into the future or financials of a company at this point.

[nztx]

The market is bananas at the moment. AIA can also join the club of having me completely puzzled. Reading some of the comments on Sharsies I think buying shares are turning more into gambling, than buying into the future or financials of a company at this point.

You're telling me nothing, have had a glance at movement in AIR AIA & KMD today ...

[Flugenbear]

Well, today, I’m sorry, but the market and 18 million dollars of buyers money says your wrong.
Yes, there were sellers of those shares but the market has proved that under a dollar these were actually a screaming buy.

Quite true biker, I agree with you 100%.
I guess my point is I just don't understand it.
I don't see any positives.
Are people hankering down for the long long term thinking ANZ will never fail, is it FOMO, is it the share price was a third of recent prices?
Anyway it's an interesting watch.
From 5 billion revenue we have gone to 10% of that, with just a little upside in the near term future.
And as of now the share price is close to 50% pre covid.
You do the math.
I have.
But back to your post...I can't fault it.

[peat]

so who is it buying all these AIR then?
Coz it sure aint the Sharesies crowd there was over 15 mill traded today.
So are there some funds getting a nod and a wink from some official?
Or what could induce big money, (usually smart money) to invest?
Or is it possible there is value there I ask myself and its very hard to see

So yeh weird.
No position.

[Flugenbear]

so who is it buying all these AIR then?
Coz it sure aint the Sharesies crowd there was over 15 mill traded today.
So are there some funds getting a nod and a wink from some official?
Or what could induce big money, (usually smart money) to invest?
Or is it possible there is value there I ask myself and its very hard to see

So yeh weird.
No position.

It's really easy to make a small fortune in aviation.
Just start with a large one.

[Hoop]

I also cannot see the attachment.

Why would you want to short? Because although the sell signals your looking for are not there, I'm saying you are looking for the wrong signals. The fundamentals are bad. TA is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of these shares. This bounce would appear to be a result of factors based in fantasy. It's my opinion and the advice I'd give to my family/friends if they asked for it.

Not fantasy...sentiment!!!!!! The optimists outweigh the pessimists atm.

quote:-..."Because although the sell signals your looking for are not there, I'm saying you are looking for the wrong signals...." No I'm not At the moment I'm using mostly momentum indicators which react the quickest to any trading behaviour change...

Independent Observer I have some good news for your "shareprice forever down" bias..
1...The Charts and all other disciplines say AIR is Bear..therefore Bear Market theory says this rally is a correction and soon this correction will have run its course and the price will recommence its downward trend.
2..A Bear Market Cycle have a series of capitulation events..It is rare to see only one..
3...AIR price closed at 118c up 14c +13.5%...not exactly a shorters paradise...eh...but hang on, maybe it is a shorters paradise in the making, as from lunch time today the very short term TA started throwing up momentum sell signals (-ve divergence)..That warning is being confirmed by the BB (Bollinger Bands) on the 5 Day/15min chart are squeezed indicating a trend change....There's a good chance tomorrow will be a down day, and as AIR has a high Beta value at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if any secondary trend reversal is volatile.

Caution:..Working with very short term TA there is a big risk of being whipsawed to bits ..so..lets see what happens tomorrow...eh

Quote:- "..I also cannot see the attachment...." Thanks...Fixed the link back to my earlier post with the chart is here

[JeremyALD]

so who is it buying all these AIR then?
Coz it sure aint the Sharesies crowd there was over 15 mill traded today.
So are there some funds getting a nod and a wink from some official?
Or what could induce big money, (usually smart money) to invest?
Or is it possible there is value there I ask myself and its very hard to see

So yeh weird.
No position.

I think institutional investors are also playing game as well, just look at Afterpay on the ASX over the last 2 months. From $40 to $8 then back to $27 which has all happened in six weeks

[Cyclical]

Interesting article on where their thinking is at.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12324948

...Cam Wallace held out a glimmer of hope for the airline's international future at a tourism summit today, but says the most immediate steps out of lockdown won't help it much.
He has seen revenue plunge during the past two months to a point where it the airline is targeting earnings of $500 million, rather than $6 billion it had projected. It now faces drawing on a $900m bailout loan from the Government as it burns through cash.

If the airline was out of markets such as Chicago, San Francisco and Buenos Aires for too long it would be challenging to restart them and recapture tourists.

''And we're competing against an awful lot of hungry nations with deeper pockets than New Zealand.''


That bit concerns me. What if we have this "bubble" between Oz and NZ, will Oz go for the jugular?

Also read on Stuff the other day that the Commerce Commission had been fielding complaints about refunds, or lack of, with guidance supposed to be released yesterday...anyone seen said guidance?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...rce-commission

[arc]

I think a large portion of the dead cat bounces happening will be Shorters taking a chance to close their positions. When the price was so low it triggered the get-out-now reflex. And I think that spree triggered the algo trading systems responses. The algos rush ahead of the upward trend and take multiple parcels that they hold for either a few minutes or an hour or two and then resell at the inflated price... wash...rinse..repeat. expect algos to be dominating the market when an actual recovery arrives, look for rapid price hikes, a sure sign the algos are out to play

[Beagle]

so who is it buying all these AIR then?
Coz it sure aint the Sharesies crowd there was over 15 mill traded today.
So are there some funds getting a nod and a wink from some official?
Or what could induce big money, (usually smart money) to invest?
Or is it possible there is value there I ask myself and its very hard to see

So yeh weird.
No position.

Sure is. Maybe the word is out that AIR will get some form of non refundable Govt grant ?
Maybe parties friendly to the Govt have been told to buy to jack up the price for a massive cash issue ?
I might even be tempted to wonder if its all a carefully orchestrated litany of lies ?

Who knows...one thing we do know though, their business is in a total mess at present and likely to stay that way for a considerable period of time.
With them running what amounts to a BBQ where the fuel is $10m a day in cash, maybe they could throw a few thousand sausages on that BBQ each day and feed the homeless people and get the staff doing something useful ?