AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Then again, it might not......are you just trying to pump life into it W69?

Apparently sharesies drive the AIR price ......this announcement to them says AIR not going broke ..govt haven’t had to bail them out and things are getting busier and they cutting costs ...all good ,.. no worries

[Balance]

Apparently sharesies drive the AIR price ......this announcement to them says AIR not going broke ..govt haven’t had to bail them out and things are getting busier and they cutting costs ...all good ,.. no worries

Bumped into one of my Air NZ friends yesterday. It has been very brutal at the airline as he put its - 2 out of 3 senior crew staff have lost their jobs in his section (international crew).

Sounds like AIR is indeed taking the opportunity to cut back on 'expensive' staff to reduce future staff & crew cost when services build up again.

[Cyclical]

Bumped into one of my Air NZ friends yesterday. It has been very brutal at the airline as he put its - 2 out of 3 senior crew staff have lost their jobs in his section (international crew).

Sounds like AIR is indeed taking the opportunity to cut back on 'expensive' staff to reduce future staff & crew cost when services build up again.

Yeah, sounds like they are managing the situation better than some of us have been giving them credit for. And if they can get that trans tazzie bubble happening, they might just be able to squeak through without delving too deep, be that government loan or capital raise.

[Justin]

how much cash they have to burn each month nowaday

[Raz]

Yeah, sounds like they are managing the situation better than some of us have been giving them credit for. And if they can get that trans tazzie bubble happening, they might just be able to squeak through without delving too deep, be that government loan or capital raise.

I tend to agree better than expected, i guess more funded by customers credits at this time which only squares off if they cancel them, substantial overhang on future operations if they honor them. Few businesses could run two years on 70% head count (when they actually get to that point) when turnover is minimal for months, debatable 6-12 months and yet they forecast to be only coming up to 70% in two years time, as I understand it.

[Beagle]

I tend to agree better than expected, i guess more funded by customers credits at this time which only squares off if they cancel them, substantial overhang on future operations if they honor them. Few businesses could run two years on 70% head count (when they actually get to that point) when turnover is forecast to be only coming up to 70% in two years time, as I understand it.

Probably why in the announcement it was made clear that further headcount reduction is pending, or words to that effect. It could turn out that Foran with all his experience with cutting costs might be the right man for the job but the headwinds this company is facing are really fierce, no question about that.

[Raz]

So consumer NZ is requesting credit refunds and would like to see 50% reduction in headcount. Good on them, about the only group actually looking at this objectively in the media.

[Zaphod]

So consumer NZ is requesting credit refunds and would like to see 50% reduction in headcount. Good on them, about the only group actually looking at this objectively in the media.

Agree with Consumer on the refunds, however they are well outside their realm of expertise & raison d'etre calling for a 50% reduction in headcount.

[Beagle]

Agree with Consumer on the refunds, however they are well outside their realm of expertise & raison d'etre calling for a 50% reduction in headcount.

Maybe so but keeping 70% of staff when you have 10% of your business left on the basis that you simply hope your business will be back to 70% in two years time looks like a plan destined to destroy a vast amount of shareholders funds in the next two years to me.

[Jaa]

Seem Beagle et al have been overly pessimistic, even hysterical. So let me give the optimistic case.

Impressive they have kept the fuel hedge losses to only $90m. Was wondering what the effect of all those reparation and cargo flights was. Even if only break-even they help use up the fuel hedge.

Also impressive they still have $640m in the kitty after almost 10 weeks of severe restrictions and no covenant or near term debt repayment issues. $640m could last 6+ months.

By Nov/Dec:

• NZ sould be at level 1 with no more social distancing or fear of domestic travel allowing the middle seats to be filled and a profitable domestic network to reemerge.
• Tasman and Pacific bubble could be in operation
• Near instant COVID-19 tests both on departure and on arrival could see home quarantine replace quarantine in hotels with bracelets and tracking aps. Have a look at what Hong Kong is doing to see how this could work. Thus allowing resumption of more international flights and greater international demand.
• The efficacy of potential vaccines should be better understood and thus an end date could be in sight (even if still over a year away). The share market is always forward looking.

Under such conditions and with plenty of financial runway things won't look so bad. Air NZ will then be able to reorganise their debt to avoid using the usurious government loan and/or have a sensibly priced pro-rata rights issue if need be.