AIR - Air NZ.

[RupertBear]

Same goes to you too Baa Baa

[BIRMANBOY]

Very poetic Baa Baa What I find curious is it seems everyone on this thread is, as you said, showing symptoms of 'fear and loathing" but in the meantime the alternate reality of the marketplace has bypassed this bunch of posters. I realize that hindsight is easy to comment from, but it seems as though there was some sort of collective hypnosis operating. The underlying theme was economic fundamentals are dire therefore the SP must follow this. Well a good lesson for all I suppose...we should all realize we know jack s**t about how the share market operates...instead of trying to will the market into doing what we think it should do, we should accept that we are merely observers.

Some people are long and have no clue about where or when to close out

Some people are short and have no clue about where or when to close out

There are some who have done nothing and are bewildered confused and still do nothing

There are others who see upside while others see downside, but still do nothing

The majority I suspect are on the sidelines intrigued by the spectacle that air is

Confounding confusing but not engaged. They are the safest

This is a disaster in the making only propped up by the government long.

Which will if it eventuates kill off all the small holders, but not necessarily benefit the shorts

[Snow Leopard]

To quote Greg:
"The good news is that Air New Zealand could be more profitable in the future than before, allowing us to start reinvesting in our customer experience, to share the rewards with Air New Zealanders via consistent profit share bonuses and to distribute dividends to our shareholders"

Which I presume means we are going to make you whinging b*****s pay through the nose for flights as you did not support us in our hour of need.

And when those profits roll in and the dividends weigh down the bank balance those same whingers will be proclaiming Greg Foran as the greatest thing since Chris Luxon.

[BIRMANBOY]

And with those aspirational words...he has both intrigued new investors, placated existing and future dividend seekers and shown how important a few well chosen media blurbs can be. Previously accused of not responding and lack of communication with shareholders, evidently he said something along the line of " I'm busy trying to get this business going again and when I have something worth saying I'll say it." Good luck to him. Must admit the dividends were sweet for several years so the absence will be missed

To quote Greg:
"The good news is that Air New Zealand could be more profitable in the future than before, allowing us to start reinvesting in our customer experience, to share the rewards with Air New Zealanders via consistent profit share bonuses and to distribute dividends to our shareholders"

Which I presume means we are going to make you whinging b*****s pay through the nose for flights as you did not support us in our hour of need.

And when those profits roll in and the dividends weigh down the bank balance those same whingers will be proclaiming Greg Foran as the greatest thing since Chris Luxon.

[dreamcatcher]

Amazing 565 million shares traded NZ-AUS since 2/3/2020 heaps of M&D retail investors?. Think SP will easily break $2 possibly this week. DOW overnight looking to open green again and Aus in catch-up after Monday's Queens Birthday holiday there.

[Snow Leopard]

This “could be” talk is a strange one....

Under-promise and Over-deliver. Greg is the Man I am telling you.

[Waltzing]

As stated above .

"We have set the annual results announcement in late August 2022, which is in around 800 days’ time, as the target date for Air New Zealand to report we are starting to earn healthy profits again even though we may be only 70 per cent of our pre-Covid-19 size."

and the next statement.

He said he hoped Air New Zealand in 2022 would be flying about 13 million customers a year versus almost 18 million pre-Covid-19.

"Air New Zealand could be more profitable in the future than before, ."

and finally

"reduce costs by 150 million more"

and if they do fly 13 million passengers then some serious number crunching is required to arrive at a new profit and loss estimate.

but calculating this is difficult due to routes and prices. impossible to calculate?

However if the numbers stack up then perhaps there actually maybe some fundamentals for this current valuation?

after all no one has yet to publish here a comprehensive profit and loss estimate and so the market climbs higher becuase all markets are climbing higher and momentums trend is your friend....

We need some numbers based on AIR new reconstructed model.

Stocks often go higher and higher until the actual is published..

[Blue Skies]

[QUOTE=Snow Leopard;820764]To quote Greg:
"The good news is that Air New Zealand could be more profitable in the future than before, allowing us to start reinvesting in our customer experience, to share the rewards with Air New Zealanders via consistent profit share bonuses and to distribute dividends to our shareholders"


Could this be the same Greg?

Last week being grilled about the refund disaster, Greg was placating angry AIR customers whose money they couldn't refund without the airline going under, grimly describing (his words not mine) the desperate situation AIR was facing with 2/3rds (International) of it's business completely gone for the foreseeable future, massive ongoing costs, needing every bit of the govt $900M loan, facing a battle to survive etc. i.e. we need your money more than you do.

This week, Greg's placating the market with the news 'that AIR could be more profitable in the future than before allowing us to start reinvesting in our customer experience, to share the rewards .....etc'

Think someone must have got to him over the weekend & said in his role as CEO might need to at least project a bit of confidence for the remaining shell shocked troops!

[Mr Slothbear]

When he talks about flying 13 million in 2022 the majority will be in their domestic majority monopoly where they can extract supernormal profits.

I believe oil will stay cheap for a long time to come, not only has demand been reduced for significant time but future demand is also decreasing significantly. Older, less efficient aircraft will be the ones getting early retirements and cars are all going electric so these will be big changes going forward.


the value of any investment is the sum of all future cashflows discounted at an appropriate rate and recently we have seen a significant material change in the discount rate with possible further reduction in the near future ultimately boosting the value of airnz and all other investments so long as they stick around long enough to generate cash and there in lies the question. This I think has confounded many as evidenced by the posts in this thread and as surprising as compound growth can be it is just the same exponential change to an investments value when you change (in this case decreasing the OCR) the discount rate, its not linear.

Will add i’m not a holder and don’t intend to be anytime soon

[bull....]

airlines index up strong again in the US and boeing is surging , so many planes to be built obviously