AIR - Air NZ.

[Zaphod]

Poor sod on Twitter ...should have read the market better

HELP! I borrowed money and then shorted AIR New Zealand (AIR.NZ) and now my money is all gone. What do I do?

Answer: Launch a Gofundme campaign

Heck, we don't even need insurance now, just launch a campaign and take advantage of our naïve fellow citizens.

[bull....]

840 buyers at 1.85 wow so many

[Quantitative Easing]

Air NZ is a good swing trade but the positive sentiment will not last for long. I only entered because there was so much support around the $1.20 mark and the positive sentiment was building up at that time. "Feel good" and "We did this" are driving this stock higher at the moment. But reality will bite and there will be a retrace at some point.

[Waltzing]

Well i hope so and well done for at 1.20? Retracement to where from where? 2.10-2.20 to 1.80? Surely a bit of a sell off at 2.50, how ever i see safer trades in many other stocks.

[Beagle]

Interesting comparison chart on CNBC this morning. Brought up a bunch of the airline shares and the cruise line companies, (remember cruise lines are not even sailing yet at all). Basically they're moving in incredibly close sync and many have doubled from their lows. (AIR has more than doubled from 80 cents).

Essentially what is going on here is hot money being thrown at "the recovery story". It doesn't seem to matter what the recovery story is, all that matters is that the shares were beaten up and are now recovering. All of the experts on CNBC's fast money show thought it was madness. (Glad I am not the only one, I feel just a little bit more sane now lol)

On Friday Greg Foran admitted they will need all of the Govt's $900m loan, recall its in two tranches, one of $600m and another of $300m. This suggests to me that in FY21 when they will have to endure a very slow recovery and 12 months of the effects of Covid 19 and losses could very well exceed those estimated by brokers for FY20 of around $700m incl extraordinary items (4 months effects of the virus).

If they have to write down the value of their 777-300 fleet losses incl extraordinary items could go over a billion in FY21. Still...what would I know having followed this companies fortunes and despairs for over 35 years...

[Quantitative Easing]

Well i hope so and well done for at 1.20? Retracement to where from where? 2.10-2.20 to 1.80? Surely a bit of a sell off at 2.50, how ever i see safer trades in many other stocks.

More like 1.25 to be exact. I dunno when the retracement will be tbh. I would be lying if i told you i did. The upswing still hasn't been broken. My view is that

1) It will plateau around the $1.90-$2.10 mark

2) It might shoot up to $2.50 and then retrace back to $1.90-$2.10.

[blackcap]

Interesting comparison chart on CNBC this morning. Brought up a bunch of the airline shares and the cruise line companies, (remember cruise lines are not even sailing yet at all). Basically they're moving in incredibly close sync and many have doubled from their lows. (AIR has more than doubled from 80 cents).

Essentially what is going on here is hot money being thrown at "the recovery story". It doesn't seem to matter what the recovery story is, all that matters is that the shares were beaten up and are now recovering. All of the experts on CNBC's fast money show thought it was madness. (Glad I am not the only one, I feel just a little bit more sane now lol)

On Friday Greg Foran admitted they will need all of the Govt's $900m loan, recall its in two tranches, one of $600m and another of $300m. This suggests to me that in FY21 when they will have to endure a very slow recovery and 12 months of the effects of Covid 19 and losses could very well exceed those estimated by brokers for FY20 of around $700m incl extraordinary items (4 months effects of the virus).

If they have to write down the value of their 777-300 fleet losses incl extraordinary items could go over a billion in FY21. Still...what would I know having followed this companies fortunes and despairs for over 35 years...

Add almost a $80m interest bill on that loan and things getting tough. That said with the SP where it is, the capital raise might be at $1.50!

[Beagle]

Add almost a $80m interest bill on that loan and things getting tough. That said with the SP where it is, the capital raise might be at $1.50!

Or the Govt could have written into that loan agreement the right to convert that loan to shares at a fixed price of 50 cents, (recall the loan agreement was entered into when the share price was 80 cents). Looking at the rest of the terms of the loan that wouldn't be a big surprise.

[Sideshow Bob]

Or the Govt could have written into that loan agreement the right to convert that loan to shares at a fixed price of 50 cents, (recall the loan agreement was entered into when the share price was 80 cents). Looking at the rest of the terms of the loan that wouldn't be a big surprise.

Surely got to be low odds of conversion of the loan to shares - not going to be able to pay it back fast and the interest would be a burden in the current situation. Only unknown would be the price, whether its fixed, and at what level, or another sort of mechanism. Even at 80c, would double the number of shares on issue, and raise the govt back to circa 75%.

Wouldn't like to be a minority holder in that instance......

[winner69]

@stevebiddle
Seems pretty clear now that Air NZ picking a CEO with zero airline experience was a very bad idea.


That Steve is great supporter and defender of AIR ...and he’s saying that!