AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

I think the only way to get a cheap flight wherever you are in the world(that I know of)is to drive to the nearest big connection point.
We all want low prices,but the business has to work as well.
There are some practices out there (walmart comes to mind)that are almost criminal in their practices in eliminating competition,but I dont think this case is one of them.
If the small routes are not economically viable in terms of numbers,then competition will simply cause one competitor to fall by the wayside.
I was surprised to hear that AIR allow for a discount for family members for a funeral--Thats long gone for most airlines.
We pay higher prices for alot of things in this country due to our small population-but for most its worth it to live here.
I think Roger has some valid points.
Having said all that,its still good to keep an eye on things in general-Us Kiwis dont seem to be very active in that sense-I only wish we had more say in some of the costs levied by the councils and Government in some other areas.

[Beagle]

I don't want to go into too much detail but the declining NZD is quite bad for AIR. No things don't cancel themselves out sorry. As a rough guide, 1c change in NZD USD = 1c change in normalised EPS. So from 30c based on 82c we are looking more like 26c now - though hedging will shield us this year. Still growth but...

Re China eastern - bad news, but not hugely significant in the scheme of a network.

Re Qantas, US competition on trans-pac, I don't see anything has changed. Yes Qantas has gone A380 to DFW, so what. Capacity increases are in line with demand. Regarding the Aussie feed to NZ trans-pac services this is not as significant as some would have you think. My impression is since Qantas pulled off AKL-LAX, AIR has been less aggressive in poaching Aussie customers (which are lower yielding anyway). You could call it a case of the two carriers playing nice. No signs of US carriers entering, its all gravy here.

The worry is USD strength for me - a clear negative. Can't see 65c though, 75c maybe. Still like the stock, haven't sold, just less upside...

-mod

If we take an extreme example and using your rough guide if we get John Key's magical Goldilocks level of 65 cents, down about 24 cents from the peak of about 89, what you appear to be suggesting is that EPS would be slashed by circa 24 cents and profit would be about 6 cps or only circa $67m after tax.

With all due respect this seems very simplistic as quite obviously the Airline would adapt its business model to suit the changing circumstances as frankly, CL said they would. Airfares would go up for a start.
To illustrate my point that the airline can indeed be highly profitable at this Goldilocks level lets look at the 2007 year when the exchange rate was at that level.
Net profit after tax was $214m
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=1691390
According to the IRD's website conversion of overseas currency to $N.Z the exchange rate on average was about the so called dreaded level we're talking about. See link. http://www.ird.govt.nz/resources/d/5...ir270-2007.pdf

[Arbroath]

Its all just supply and demand. Roger makes a common sense argument about the costs/benefits of Auckland versus the regions. We moved from Auckland to New Plymouth 5 years ago and don't regret it for a second. I grew up in NP and flights these days are so much cheaper than 20 years ago - easy to get Auckland return for $200-250, or just a 4 hour drive to connect to international flights.

The simple truth is places like Wanganui / Gisborne are slowly fading economically, just like the Sunday programme said recently and the economics of supporting those towns doesn't add up. I own AIR because its a well run company - probably the best run airline in the world. From NP to Auckland there are now 8 flights a day at cheaper prices than 5,10, or 20 years ago. There used to be 4 flights a day. It's just economic winners and losers - thats the simple truth.

[Beagle]

Good post. iI's about making choices and if you want to save money putting in some effort. We had only two days notice of my wife's father passing early last year and had to travel Auckland to New Plymouth. Flights at short notice were about $320 return ($640 for my wife and I plus rental car costs and parking, all up we were looking at about $800 in costs for the day) for the first flight of the day on a Tuesday and back on the last flight of that day. We had no idea that concessions were available for close family members, something that all of us are now aware of thanks to the recent post on here. We found it a bit objectionable so we took the car instead and stayed overnight. Just before Xmas my wife flew down to visit her mother on a grabaseat special at $49 each way.

[tricha]

Its all just supply and demand. Roger makes a common sense argument about the costs/benefits of Auckland versus the regions. We moved from Auckland to New Plymouth 5 years ago and don't regret it for a second. I grew up in NP and flights these days are so much cheaper than 20 years ago - easy to get Auckland return for $200-250, or just a 4 hour drive to connect to international flights.

The simple truth is places like Wanganui / Gisborne are slowly fading economically, just like the Sunday programme said recently and the economics of supporting those towns doesn't add up. I own AIR because its a well run company - probably the best run airline in the world. From NP to Auckland there are now 8 flights a day at cheaper prices than 5,10, or 20 years ago. There used to be 4 flights a day. It's just economic winners and losers - thats the simple truth.

supply and demand bullish.t, it's a Rort, monopoly, actively propped up and supported by the Govt.
when they burn out Jetstar, watch the fairs triple from the major city's .

John Keys going to speak to the airline, I doubt it, election won, now he can go of jet setting and have more high tea with the queen

it's a disgusting monolopy


'Horrendous' airfares


By Harrison Christian


11:11 AM Friday Aug 29, 201437 comments
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Hawke's Bay airfares have been slammed by the region's candidates - with Napier Labour hopeful Stuart Nash saying Hawke's Bay travellers are being "rorted".


The high cost of Air NZ's regional flights was thrust into the spotlight on Wednesday when the airline announced a 45 per cent increase in annual profit, to $262 million.


The announcement caused Prime Minister John Key to speak to the airline about its expensive regional airfares, saying people in the regions had raised the issue of high fares during his travels on the campaign trail.


The New Zealand Airports Association also called on the Commerce Commission to regulate the airfares.


The domestic routes between the major centers, such as Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, were often discounted, but there was potential for excessive profits in some domestic routes, where the airline had "a virtual monopoly," the association said.


Mr Nash said regional airfares were "horrendous".




"As somebody who's been travelling to and from Auckland for two and a half years, we get absolutely rorted. I actually think it's a barrier to business in Hastings and Napier. What I see in their [Air NZ's] pricing is monopolistic behaviour," he said.


Tukituki National MP and Commerce Minister Craig Foss said he agreed with John Key's suggestion Air NZ should reduce regional airfares.


"I agree with the Prime Minister that Air NZ needs to continue the work it's doing while making sure it reduces prices to the regions, if it can ... Air NZ has a crucial role in the development of Hawke's Bay, and I would expect them to work positively with our region." Tukituki Labour candidate Anna Lorck said Air NZ's regional airfares were "another example of the Government neglecting our region".


"Air NZ is making profits out of the regions and in doing do stifling regional economic development. The costs are far too high and this must be addressed," Ms Lorck said.


Napier National candidate Wayne Walford agreed "everyone would like to see a reduction" in regional airfares.


Napier Green Party candidate Paul Bailey said he would welcome competition on regional routes, but "in the long term we have to wean ourselves off our love of air travel and use more carbon efficient methods of transportation".


Ikaroa-Rawhiti Labour candidate Meka Whaitiri said regional airfares were "overly priced," particularly to Napier and Gisborne.


"I would support any initiative to bring them into a more reasonable range as a way to encourage more tourism to these areas, creating much needed jobs," Ms Whaitiri said.


Ikaroa-Rawhiti Maori Party candidate Marama Fox said the airfares were inhibiting Ikaroa-Rawhiti residents from accessing major cities for tertiary education and work.


"Further, the tourist market is likewise impacted by the daunting cost of convenient travel to our region," Ms Fox said.


Napier Conservative Party candidate Garth McVicar said the high cost of flying to and from Napier had always frustrated him.


"Competition is the only way to pull the process down. Our regional leaders need to team up and make a submission to Jetstar to entice them to the Bay."


Air NZ rejected claims it was price-gouging passengers on regional routes, and said there was ample domestic competition.


Hawke's Bay Airport chief executive Nick Story said the airport had had discussions with Air NZ regarding its regional airfares.


"Air NZ has a monopoly on regional flights," Mr Story said.


However, the carrier had recently increased seating capacity in and out of Hawke's Bay, which he hoped would have a positive impact on pricing.


Asked if he thought Air NZ's regional airfares should be regulated, he said: "We would prefer that a focus on customers and a desire for a long term and mutually beneficial partnership with the regions, as opposed to regulation, will determine their pricing of regional services."


- HAWKES BAY TODAY


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On many occasions I can purchase an air ticket to Australia cheaper than the flight from Hawke's Bay to Auckland. A trans-tasman journey on Emirates, a three hour flight, will include a full meal, free drinks, a huge selection of in-flight entertainment plus excellent service by a professional cabin crew. Compare this to Air New Zealand's service Hawke's Bay to Auckland: a pottle of water, a free lolly and biscuit plus tea or coffee only served providing the flight isn't too turbulent, which in small aircraft it frequently is.


Air New Zealand should be ashamed of the way they treat customers from the provinces. At the same time they charge us up to $300.00 for a flight to Auckland, they can run a jet from Auckland to Wellington, every day for $35.00 ... go figure.
Robin. - New Zealand - 02:02 PM Friday, 29 Aug 201410LikeReplyReport
I travel to Napier most weekends from Auckland and unless I get a grab a seat which has no flexibility it can cost over double to fly than what it costs for the five hour drive. To get a drink of water, tea or coffee and a piece of fudge and carry on luggage can cost me just on $300 one way Auckland to Napier. Of course it's price gouging - they have no competition. It's cheaper to fly to Australia than it is to some of our regional areas.


Mr Bailey's comments really add no value whatsoever - what alternatives are there? A five hour drive in a car, a bus drive which can take up to 8 hours and leaves Auckland at unreasonable hours for someone that works.


Rant over.
BB - 02:02 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20145LikeReplyReport
Harrison


I hope you take this investigation further.


Air NZ reportedly earn $135m per annum gross through Napier Airport, $70m alone from Auckland. By a rough estimate, the average ticket is $250 each way.


Part time "appeasers" are occasionally offered (think Starfish, or stand-by), but soon withdrawn once we settle down again. Grab-a-seat works if you have flexibility and foresight, but is useless for business.


An business is what the Bay needs. As one of many (and there are many more than you would imagine) who travel every second week, if not more, Air NZ is directly responsible for less business and growth in the Bay.


Having a close association with the tourist and accommodation sectors, the damage caused is huge for the Bay. If we look at Auckland alone, just try comparing the weekend break cost options for say Australia, Queenstown or the Bay in say one month from now. The Bay does not stand a chance due to flight costs alone.


Then there is the jets discussion. Rob Fyfe admitted earlier this year (as you published) that jets are a line call for the Bay. Saving 30min of each flight, at the expense of a few flight time options is a no brainer.


Jet Star want to talk.
Warren - 02:03 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20145LikeReplyReport
Harrison


I hope you take this investigation further.


Air NZ reportedly earn $135m per annum gross through Napier Airport, $70m alone from Auckland. By a rough estimate, the average ticket is $250 each way.


Part time "appeasers" are occasionally offered (think Starfish, or stand-by), but soon withdrawn once we settle down again. Grab-a-seat works if you have flexibility and foresight, but is useless for business.


An business is what the Bay needs. As one of many (and there are many more than you would imagine) who travel every second week, if not more, Air NZ is directly responsible for less business and growth in the Bay.


Having a close association with the tourist and accommodation sectors, the damage caused is huge for the Bay. If we look at Auckland alone, just try comparing the weekend break cost options for say Australia, Queenstown or the Bay in say one month from now. The Bay does not stand a chance due to flight costs alone.


Then there is the jets discussion. Rob Fyfe admitted earlier this year (as you published) that jets are a line call for the Bay. Saving 30min of each flight, at the expense of a few flight time options is a no brainer.


Jet Star want to talk.
Warren - 02:04 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20141LikeReplyReport
Everyones acting so shocked.This has been common knowledge for so long it hurts more than everybody missing the fact that this just happened to be brought up right before an election.Small minds I guess.Now where did I leave my life again.
Evenkeel - 04:06 PM Friday, 29 Aug 2014LikeReplyReport
Tried flying t Keri Keri even with one of link services discounted $400, almost the cost of a return airfare to the Gold Coast. Peole flying overseas prefer flying to driving in a car 5 hours to the major cities. It is time for us to have international flights at least 2 a week. Half of the link planes that carry those passengers will have empty seats. It will encourage tourism to fly direct to Hawkes Bay.
While Air New Zealand had hard times in the late 1900 it is time for the regional cities to be given cheaper fares when you see the profits this company is making now. Personally I find It frustrating to have to pay excessively for a flight an add this to an internaltion airfare it is making it too expensive. Secondly Air NZ have allowed cheap fares if you have a carry on bag but if you need a suitcase the costs go up and up.
0air New Zealand is not on its own all the power companies have increased profit s and at the expense of the consumer. wages are not as high in the regions as the big ciites yet we actually pay more for travel and power.
Robyn - 04:06 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20144LikeReplyReport
Aren't market forces wonderful. Private enterprise provides better services cheaper remember. How's those electricity rate cuts working out?
Steve CA - 04:06 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20148LikeReplyReport
Air NZ have also cut flights between some of the regions. Bring back the flights between Hamilton and Napier please!
Sedge - 04:06 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20143LikeReplyReport
Air NZ have also cut flights between some of the regions. Bring back the flights between Hamilton and Napier please!
Sedge - 04:06 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20142LikeReplyReport
I am flying over from Australia in October and flying from Wellington to Napier. The airfare is much the same price as flying from Brisbane to Wellington. My close family live in Napier so naturally I want to visit occasionally but the price is a rip-off! Also car rentals for 9 days are going to cost the same as the whole trip over - another rip-off! Over here in Brisbane you can rent a car (new model) for around $30 a day. Many Australians I have spoken to have not considered going to Hawkes Bay as it is too expensive to go there. Air New Zealand you need to lower your prices - you are ripping off your customers! Rental hire businesses - you are ripping off your customers too. As far as the Greens Party representative's comment - get into the real world.
Lynn2508 - Brisbane - 06:55 PM Friday, 29 Aug 20143LikeReplyReport
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[Fox]

supply and demand bullish.t, it's a Rort, monopoly, actively propped up and supported by the Govt.
when they burn out Jetstar, watch the fairs triple from the major city's .

John Keys going to speak to the airline, I doubt it, election won, now he can go of jet setting and have more high tea with the queen

it's a disgusting monolopy

I'm sure if exuberant profits are being made within short domestic flights at the price AIR NZ charge, then there wouldn't be a monopoly and every other airline would jump in on this opportunity. But there is no queue of airlines waiting to offer domestic flights, simply because it is so expensive. For the sake of our own sanity do a simple calculation on the number of people that use these domestic flights and the costs involved (pilot salaries, fuel, depreciation, airport costs etc etc.). If you don't like the price they offer the service to you at, then don't use it.

[modandm]

If we take an extreme example and using your rough guide if we get John Key's magical Goldilocks level of 65 cents, down about 24 cents from the peak of about 89, what you appear to be suggesting is that EPS would be slashed by circa 24 cents and profit would be about 6 cps or only circa $67m after tax.

With all due respect this seems very simplistic as quite obviously the Airline would adapt its business model to suit the changing circumstances as frankly, CL said they would. Airfares would go up for a start.

I fully understand the interplay variables that would occur, and don't suggest this rule of thumb be applied to larger long term exchange rate shifts.

With respect, I don't consider chatting with a CEO over biscuits at the AGM research, of course Chris is going to portray the company in a positive light, as is his job. My knowledge of the company, having been invested for several years, following developments closely, regular one-on-one discussions with the CFO and IR, detailed financial model, and investment knowledge puts me in a strong position to judge the impact of an FX shift. In fact my original investment case was predicated on the fact that most analysts were under appreciating the positive impact of NZD strength and lower fuel prices on the companies performance. I started getting excited in 2012 (post 717 page 48 of this thread), and more in 2013 on NZD strength - accumulating.

Lets ignore hedging and examine the impact of FX moving from 83c to 78c - in a very simplistic way

P&L

1. Fuel in NZD goes from $1183m to $1259m by my model - call it +80m
2. Maintenance, aircraft operations, lease payments and interest (where USD) rises - rough estimate +40m

offsetting this
3. US revenue is worth more. In FY14 this was $638m. Add 6% = $676m so a gain of rounding up $40m

Net decrease in profits before tax of $80m. Pretty significant you agree?

The other factor is USD capex. The shift won't stress the strong balance sheet, but it does make future special dividends less likely.

Lastly I think you over-estimate the ability of the company to flex pricing short term. You should think of demand as being quite elastic, therefore should AIR increase prices ahead of increases in demand, load factor falls.

I am not trying to alarm anyone into selling, like I said I am holding and I have a 7 figure position. But people should be aware that the recent NZD shift if maintained, puts my forecast of 30c eps out, and I would expect something in the order of 26-28c as being more likely now, with less growth in FY16 than previously expected (but still positive) as favorable hedging rolls off.

-mod

[777]

But modandm the depreciation of the $NZ will be against all currencies. Your example includes 100% of fuel costs but only the US revenue. All the other revenue from other destinations has to be considered which improves the situation.

[Beagle]

Modandum - Totally respect your long term and sizeable position in the company and depth of research BUT a couple of things. Firstly my credentials. I have 33 years experience as an accountant and many, many years experience advising privately owned aviation operators who were making good money when we were at 39 cents American. I totally understand price elasticity and inelasticity arguments. Its about providing a quality attractive service at a price the customer can bear when the exchange rate goes badly south.

Looking at your contentions. Firstly a 6% drop in the N.Z. dollar against the TWI, ($N.Z. has been falling out of bed against virtually all currencies) = circa $2.3b in overseas sales x 1.06 = $N.Z.138m dollar revenue gain which more than covers your expected increased costs of $120m.

Secondly, besides that, we have oil at 18 month lows which if unhedged would by my calculations extinguish the exchange rate effect. To be honest I'm really not worried about a modest correction in the Kiwi dollar at all.

On the other hand the spread of Ebola and its possible effect long term on people's propensity to curtail unnecessary travel is definitely a long term concern I hold as is my short / medium term concern regarding the dramatic reduction in Fonterra's forecast pay-out and its effect on the N.Z. economy. People need to have confidence about their financial situation before splashing out on that dream five figure overseas trip. You think dairy farmers and all service providers to that industry aren't going to be pulling their horns in a LOT ?

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I was never on board with the AIR is worth $3.00 (now) calculations. My contention has been that if they can fill there planes to the same load level's as last year with the additional capacity expansion of 5% this year and all other factors being equal then we could see close to 30 EPS next year and if and when they proved their ability to grow the top line by 5% they'd be worth close to $3.00 sometime next year.

My current thinking is that with dramatic Dairy reductions and its effect on the N.Z. economy and with the potential for Ebola to be a medium / long term concern AIR faces a considerable challenge to fill their extra capacity over the next few years.

Interestingly according to Reuters the consensus average of 7 analysts has 2015 eps at 23.07 cps for 2015, (highest is 25 cps), and for 2016 consensus of 6 analysts is 25.78cps and the highest is 28.

If they achieve the average analysts forecasts and we use a reasonable PE of 10, (which is the average its been trading on over the last 10 years), that suggests fair value will be circa $2.30 in 2015 and circa $2.60 in 2016. Given the challenges the airline faces I think we should be pleased if those SP markers are achieved in tandem with receiving high fully imputed divvy's.

Considering the not inconsiderable risks and challenges AIR faces, arguments around having no more than a sensible percentage of one's investment in AIR, (i.e. maintaining a well diversified portfolio) appear to me to have considerable merit.

Tricha - Its become clear you have no idea about the operational costs AIR faces on small short regional routes on a per passenger basis. What part of amortising high fixed (per plane) landing and airways charges over 10 pax as compared to a flight load of 300 is so difficult for you to understand ?
I have no concerns at all the AIR aren't well capable of fending off anyone's bleating agenda about regional airfares using international research. Frankly, unlike the other matters referred too above, I don't see your or anyone's else's emotionally charged rants regarding regional airfares as a risk to AIR at all. Jetstar have been quick to implement full regional services haven't they, (sarcasm intended), could it just be because there's bugger all money in it and its bloody hard to get an acceptable return on capital !!
Can I make a suggestion, use your car some more, it won't kill you.

[tricha]

I am sorry but unless you can back your highly emotional claims with evidence that they're outrageous relative to other airlines in other countries providing similar services to small regions then most people will view your statements as nothing more than having a baseless agenda and / or showing a very limited understanding of the operational costs an airline faces. Perhaps go away and do some research and provide some supporting evidence then people might take you seriously. Ever heard of the concept of using your car if you find short regional airfares so morally offensive as it appears you do ?

Air NZ is a cartel, eliminates any completion by dropping prices and then gorging the average Kiwi.
The average Kiwi bailed them out to the tune of hundreds of millions of tax paid money and in return gets flogged!

John Key can go jet setting for free, high tea with he Queen, golf with Obama.
If you do not find Air NZ morally offensive Roger, you do not have a moral fibre.

Air NZ reviews sky high fares
Last updated 12:58 28/08/2014






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Prime Minister John Key has taken up the issue of high regional airfares, which a Nelson woman highlighted.


Key says Air New Zealand needs to keep working to reduce regional airfares.


The airline said yesterday it would review the cost of last-minute domestic regional airfares after criticism they were too high.


Nelson woman Helen Blaikie, who expressed her dismay over regional airfares and the airline's attitude in a Nelson Mail article on Saturday, said today she was pleased the issue was being looked at.


Key said in Blenheim yesterday he had directly raised the issue of high regional airfares with the airline's chief executive, Christopher Luxon.


"I've made it clear that I think Air New Zealand needs to continue the work it's doing while making sure that it reduces prices to the regions if it can. Because in the end we always know they're likely to have a more monopoly-type position in those areas. They've got to make sure that they continue to deliver fair pricing to the regions.


"Now, they assure me they are. But they also assure me they're very focused on that area."


The airline announced today annual profits had soared by 45 per cent due to higher passenger numbers and greater capacity.


Key said it was doing a "magnificent job" and was one of the few airlines in the world to make a profit.


However, the high price of airfares to regional areas had been raised with him as he travelled around New Zealand, and he had "directly raised" that with Air NZ.


The airline's pricing schedules were "quite complex", he said.


It was up to Air NZ's leadership to run their company, he said.


"I was simply making the point that they're our national carrier and we expect them to deliver fair prices across New Zealand . . . New Zealand is a small country and in so many areas, we either have a monopoly supplier or a duopoly position."


Blaikie spoke out about regional airfares after she and her husband paid a total of $1352 for last-minute return tickets from Nelson to Dunedin for a funeral. Her concerns were echoed by many others with a flood of reaction with many fed up with high airfares.


Luxon said yesterday last-minute airfares may be reviewed.


"A strong performance like this certainly helps the business be able to keep a downward pressure on airfares," he said.


However, it is not only last-minute airfares that have sparked outrage. A Nelson traveller who this month booked return tickets for two to a February wedding in Gisborne paid $1148, the cheapest seats she could find.


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In the past six years average regional fares had not changed, Luxon said.


Luxon said he believed Air New Zealand had the best regional network in the world.


Normalised earnings before taxation of $332 million for the 2014 financial year were up 30 per cent on the previous year. Statutory earnings before taxation were $357m, an increase of 40 per cent, while statutory net profit after taxation was $262m.


Operating revenue, capacity and yields grew across the network, while unit costs remained stable.


Other online reaction from air travellers include one who faced paying nearly $3000 return for two adults and two children from Napier-Hastings to Christchurch for a grandfather's funeral.


Margaret Bartlett said: "We had to go to a funeral in Te Aroha (from Nelson) in Feb and it was going to cost $1200 for flights to Ak then rental car and accommodation. We ended up driving. Flight prices aren't good unless you can book in advance."


Cameron Woods said: "When my mother died it cost me, my wife and 18-month daughter more to go to Hawke's Bay from Nelson than it did to spend 10 days on the Sunshine Coast a month later. That can't be right."


Celia Zumbach said: "When I went to Auckland from the Gold Coast I wanted to go home to Nelson and joined up with Grab a Seat. Seriously, Auckland to Nelson came up once and the travelling dates were wrong for me. I had 5 weeks before I travelled and checked every day just in case . . . nothing, so I just didn't go to Nelson, I stayed in Auckland for the week."


- The Nelson Mail








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