AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Very sad and about to look much sadder.
He wasted a lot of money on "greenwashing".

[bull....]

Forsyth Barr reduced its target price per share to 70 cents, down from $1

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...-analysts-warn

[Joshuatree]

Wait till you hear about what AIR isn't doing. For one ,staff from an international flight from LA can fly home on a domestic flight. How do you run an airline viably with staff that dont do the 2 week stand down after every flight from a highly infected country.?

[Beagle]

Forsyth Barr reduced its target price per share to 70 cents, down from $1

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...-analysts-warn

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

[winner69]

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

To my mathematical brain, the numbers alone make thinking about aliens perfectly rationale. The real challenge is to work out what aliens might actually be like - Hawking

[dobby41]

Brokers have done a good public service thing getting into the media about this. Forbar and Craigs have made their views "plane" and simple enough for anyone to understand. Those choosing to stay onboard this bird could never say they weren't cautioned.

Now you believe the number brokers give?
When did that change - or is it only numbers you agree with?
PS - I agree with the brokers on this one but you usually don't.

[Jaa]

As usual no one has mentioned the positive news of ~$70m more potential cash in the kitty from the increase in the NZD. That might get them through 2 more months. $37m more coming from the wage extension too, another month.

As at mid June, Air NZ is flying 50% of its domestic capacity and expects this to increase to 55% next month. Qantas in comparison is flying 40% of its domestic capacity which includes a number of subsidised routes.

Air NZ seems to be doing well out of cargo and must have decided might as well sell some tickets too. Flights to Japan and Shanghai resuming and code-share flights to Singapore with Singapore Airlines. Likewise with the 787s flying between Auckland and Christchurch full of cargo.

There will be a capital raising eventually but it won't be the going out of business bargain many are expecting.

[Jaa]

AIR N.Z.'s reputation nose dives. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12339228

777-200's are certainly a goner (circa $400m write off this year as already announced by AIR) and I doubt they'll bring back the 777-300's as they're the ones that have the old legacy pilot contracts with pilots earning ~ $500K each. These are about 8 years old and will be considerably more valuable than the 14 year old 777-200's.

AIR do not give a breakdown of values by aircraft type but I note in their 2019 financial statements, note 9 page 14 under the depreciation that airframes are written off over 18 years and engines over 6-15 years.
If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.

The above wild speculation of an impairment charge in the order of $1b-$1.2b was way, way off, as I called out at the time.

Air NZ's guidance today confirmed an aircraft impairment charge of $350 - $450 million for the year to June 30.

[BlackPeter]

Now you believe the number brokers give?
When did that change - or is it only numbers you agree with?
PS - I agree with the brokers on this one but you usually don't.

Brokers estimates are as reliable as horoscopes. No correlation with reality, however given the randomness (of either reality or the broker numbers, probably both) does it happen from time to time that they are correct. Similar with a broken clock.

More interesting than the value of the brokers forecast is typically any change in this value. Any forecast changes are either triggered by external events or alternatively by changes in the brokers interest. Always worthwhile to analyse these changes ... :

[winner69]

As usual no one has mentioned the positive news of ~$70m more potential cash in the kitty from the increase in the NZD. That might get them through 2 more months. $37m more coming from the wage extension too, another month.

As at mid June, Air NZ is flying 50% of its domestic capacity and expects this to increase to 55% next month. Qantas in comparison is flying 40% of its domestic capacity which includes a number of subsidised routes.

Air NZ seems to be doing well out of cargo and must have decided might as well sell some tickets too. Flights to Japan and Shanghai resuming and code-share flights to Singapore with Singapore Airlines. Likewise with the 787s flying between Auckland and Christchurch full of cargo.

There will be a capital raising eventually but it won't be the going out of business bargain many are expecting.

Jaa - That $70m they mentioned is a non-cash item.