AIR - Air NZ.

[dobby41]

Met 2 ex AirNZ pilots in the last week, 1 working as a courier, the other as an onion picker.

Question: why is it that Jetstar as kept their pilots on albeit on leave without pay, but AirNZ has made many of theirs redundant? Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but this is what I was told....

Seems AIR was quicker at seeing reality.
Qantas now laying off 20% of their workforce as they prepare to be a much smaller airline.
They are now 'increasing' their domestic capacity to 15% (what you get with a so called open economy when internal borders are closed).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12342898

[Blue Skies]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

[stoploss]

Lufthansa news, interesting the return flight guarantees etc ,...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/b...ele/index.html

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...y-postpandemic

[Raz]

Lufthansa news, interesting the return flight guarantees etc ,...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/b...ele/index.html

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...y-postpandemic

Emirates sent out a similar support plan to regular business class passengers a week ago. The cost to compete and depth of network is going to go up. AIR needs to sort its capital structure ASAP.

[Raz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...-long-lockdown Doesn't look good at all for AIR or any other tourism operator.

Trans-Tasman bubble looking extremely unlikely any time soon. a whopping 33 new cases in the state of Victoria today up from 17 yesterday. Looks like community transmission to me and as for U.S.A...oh dear... https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/us/co...cid=spartanntp

Talk around Qantas is not full international schedule until late 2021.

[Beagle]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

That's bang on the money. Investors got really lucky its been 19 years since the last collapse and bailout after 9/11. Going forward, from an investment point of view I think its safer to assume a collapse and bailout at least once a decade and when you start factoring that into your long term investment returns really this only becomes a traders stock and long term investment is a mug's game.

[Waltzing]

The Brilliant MR B has made it offical. Up to the last 2 years we moved on and off the market at such pace that we created special software to cater for the amount of transactional movements. Then with interest rates staying super low in the 10 year we decided to stay another 2 years looking sideways at the dow saying to ourself. Trump in charge and DOW at all time sky high.... anything goes wrong... its a long way down. Well i just did not align viruses with total portfolio liquidation as we had regularly done every year since 2008 and made some money with full Transactional Liquidation at regular intervals. In the process missing a lot of profits but staying liquid. Now that gots offical from MR B that longterm in a MUGS game we can now say its short term only from now on. And AIR was always a short term trade only we did not go SHORT ENOUGH. DISC: sold at 2.10. Looking buy back and trade at .50c. Of course you may say health care is blue chip and we agree but its a low profit return and also can be traded, banks a total right off trade. We see every stock as a trade these days and we noticed that the big boys stayed off this rally globally. Fed as not rolled out the big gun yet, still mired in paper work.

[dobby41]

And then their was only one suitor for Virgin Australia
https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...a10757e07ec89c

[Jaa]

So far this Century a quick cursory count shows we've had 6 deadly pandemics/ epidemics, SARS, MERS, H1N1 (an epidemic in Asia) , H5N1, Ebola, and now Covid-19.
After Covid-19 we now know the devastating impact a Pandemic can have on Airlines.

Even after a vaccine is found or Covid-19 mutates into something less harmful, we now know to expect new epidemics in the near future.
From an investment point of view, many seem to overlook this.

My thoughts would be, even if there is eventually a Post Covid-19 return to normality, would you or any institution want to risk investing in an industry when at the slightest rumour of a new outbreak or dangerous new virus emerging somewhere on the planet (which undoubtedly will happen), there is likely to be an irrational panic response & a rush for the exits?

I completely sold out & always though of getting back in after SP dilution, but having second thoughts.

This is a good point. The world's scientists have repeatedly said we can expect an increase in viruses as humans increase the pressure on nature via forest clearing, burning of rainforests, palm oil plantations, increased agriculture, plantation forests, wildlife trade, pollution, oil consumption, plastic waste etc.

Aviation will always be one of the most affected industries. Pay back I guess for all the environmental destruction it causes.

Halt destruction of nature or suffer even worse pandemics, say world’s top scientists

[Jaa]

Bit silly Singapore Airlines storing A380s in the Australian desert and Qantas storing its A380s in the Mojave Desert in the US isn't it? Qantas a bit slow to secure space? An unlucky and unloved (by airlines) plane that A380.

The Airbus A380 jets, which usually service international routes to and from London and Los Angeles, will instead fly to the US’ Mojave Desert and remain there until the middle of 2023 at least.

Qantas is benefiting from government subsidies to maintain a minimum network otherwise looks to be in a much worse position than Air NZ. Qantas is flying only 15% of domestic capacity vs 50-55% for Air NZ.

Those here who claimed that Air NZ would face greater competition from Qantas in NZ are likely to be disappointed. Jetstar in NZ is a marginal business and could just as easily face the chop. An even stronger reason is after many years of competing, Air NZ and Qantas now share passengers on each others domestic networks (in normal times). Why put that at risk?