AIR - Air NZ.

[iceman]

A reality check. AIR flew revenue passenger kilometers in June 2020 (when for the majority of that month we were in level 1) of less than 10% of what it flew in June 2019. Their overheads will be similar to last year. Even if they can get up to 20% of former capacity overall the reality is that total overhead including staff is likely to be circa 80% of what it was. The prospect of a Trans-tasman bubble anytime in the foreseeable future is now looking like a wishful pipedream and there are clear capacity restraints at the boarder restricting passanger repatriation flights.

The truth is Covid 19 looks like more of a problem world-wide than it did a couple of months ago and until there's a highly effective vacine that's widely available the prospect of any meaningful international schedule apart from freight is extremely dim.

I think they will be doing very well indeed if they can reduce the cash burn to $100m a month in FY21. If others think that's an investable proposition for a major capital raise with an unknown timeframe to when the airline might be profitable again...then I wish you luck, you're going to need it

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ening-position

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...aland-ceo-says

I flew in with AIR this morning from LAX on a Dreamliner. They had 3 PAX in business class, 3 PAX in premium economy class and 83 PAX in economy class. The cargo hold was full. A crew member that has been flying the route regularly last couple of weeks it has been fairly similar on the flights he's done.

I have to say AIR did well with pre-flight communications, boarding and in-flight service.

[Beagle]

I flew in with AIR this morning from LAX on a Dreamliner. They had 3 PAX in business class, 3 PAX in premium economy class and 83 PAX in economy class. The cargo hold was full. A crew member that has been flying the route regularly last couple of weeks it has been fairly similar on the flights he's done.

I have to say AIR did well with pre-flight communications, boarding and in-flight service.

Welcome back mate. Very happy for you that you've finally be able to get home after all this time. 14 days to go and you can look forward to seeing your family again, bet you can't wait ! Don't go jumping any fences

[Jaa]

A reality check. AIR flew revenue passenger kilometers in June 2020 (when for the majority of that month we were in level 1) of less than 10% of what it flew in June 2019. Their overheads will be similar to last year. Even if they can get up to 20% of former capacity overall the reality is that total overhead including staff is likely to be circa 80% of what it was. The prospect of a Trans-tasman bubble anytime in the foreseeable future is now looking like a wishful pipedream and there are clear capacity restraints at the boarder restricting passanger repatriation flights.

The truth is Covid 19 looks like more of a problem world-wide than it did a couple of months ago and until there's a highly effective vacine that's widely available the prospect of any meaningful international schedule apart from freight is extremely dim.

I think they will be doing very well indeed if they can reduce the cash burn to $100m a month in FY21. If others think that's an investable proposition for a major capital raise with an unknown timeframe to when the airline might be profitable again...then I wish you luck, you're going to need it

Air NZ can't do anything about Australian or NZ government rules. Only 30 pax allowed per plane into Sydney and Brisbane now so cancellations inevitable.

Think you'll find their costs have already dropped more than 20%. They cut 30% of the staff remember? Fuel is still down about 1/3. Leased planes will be returning and parked planes don't need as much maintenance. That is the big 4 cash costs. Other variable costs will be down too and others non-existent like overtime, bonuses and new plane payments. The government has also cut aviation fees. If the current trends continue, no way their monthly cash burn is $100m+ in August or September.

If a re-emergence of locally transmitted COVID in NZ is the big risk, it is balanced by a vaccine being available at the end of the year. Lots of vaccines going to phase 3 trials in the US and UK now.

[tommy_d]

I flew in with AIR this morning from LAX on a Dreamliner. They had 3 PAX in business class, 3 PAX in premium economy class and 83 PAX in economy class. The cargo hold was full. A crew member that has been flying the route regularly last couple of weeks it has been fairly similar on the flights he's done.

I have to say AIR did well with pre-flight communications, boarding and in-flight service.

sounds like a tick for air nz. And glad you managed to get where you want to go.

Another tick for air nz from me.
Although the time taken to be able to use the credits from cancelled flights has been a hassle, i'm happy that they've got the tool up and running. The airpoints used to pay for cancelled flights were credited to my account a while back, and today i booked and paid for flights using a credit from a ticket paid with real dollars and it worked seamlessly.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...lery_id=222521

[iceman]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...lery_id=222521

All these articles and wild guesstimates are just plucking numbers out of thin air. I don't see how anyone can give any half informed forecasts about world travel or tourism at this stage, except that it will get much worse before it gets better. Until we have a reliable and widely available effective vaccine, things are looking very bleak.

[biker]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...lery_id=222521

Where is this article? Sounds interesting but the link doesn’t take you there and can’t se it on the Herald site.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...lery_id=222521

Even getting back to 2019 levels in 2027 is a big guess

My considered guess is never

As I heard today - So when does the world go back to normal? Sorry to say, but it already did. This is it. This is the new normal.

[iceman]

Where is this article? Sounds interesting but the link doesn’t take you there and can’t se it on the Herald site.

It does take you to a podcast interview

[Zaphod]

This is it. This is the new normal.

Long-term, for the most part, things will not remain this way. If the virus continues to mutate becoming more infectious but less virulent, people actively take precautions to slow the spread, and we can inoculate against it, then we'll slowly return to our former ways. That's just human nature.