AIR - Air NZ.

[modandm]

I wasn't limiting that statement simply to analysis. He frequently brings articles and insights both about the industry as a whole and company specific things that I had overlooked to my attention through this thread as well as generously sharing his conversations and insights with management with those of us unable to make it to the AGM.

very true and fair, sorry

[Beagle]

Rogers 'analysis' of the stock comes down to

1. Using the analyst consensus earnings estimates
2. Applying a PE of 10
Roger hasn't estimated the difference in earnings might be if passenger revenue grows 3,4,5,6,7, or 8%, or how a change in fuel or FX affects next years profit. He certainly hasn't bothered to forecast P&L cost line items. Instead he would say - oh the business model can cope. That's nice. Chorus will probably cope too - never mind shareholder losing half their investment.

So simple... I would disagree with both of these and hardly call it high quality posting.
Good luck...

You're a laugh mate. Many times you've referred to your model and actually offered to send me it and then withdrew that offer for no reason other than it gives you too much of a "competitive advantage". In my eyes you lost all credibility at that point.

No professional analyst has been anywhere near your 30 cents EPS forecast so you'd obviously have us believe that you as some pseudonym on the internet with some alleged seven figure holding and alleged meetings with management and special analytical skills give you insights into the company that named professional analysts that definitely have been meeting with management of a regular basis don't have. Yeah, that's really plausible, (NOT).

A while back you claimed the stock was worth $3.00 NOW. Ha, obviously the market disagrees with you :doh you didn't bother turning up to the ASM, despite claiming to have a seven figure investment didn't bother meeting other ST members at the Chch meeting. Who are you, what's your background ?
Other members on here have met me and know my credentials, who you are is anyone's guess and to be quite honest I take what you say with a grain of salt and also your claimed position in the stock.

I have been factoring forex and fuel changes into my thinking and what do you know, just like CL said, they basically cancel each other out for the 2015 year.

Fact is you have no idea any more than anyone else what the exchange rate will be in 2016 when their forex cover runs out, how they'll fill their projected capacity increases of 5% growth each year, what the oil price will be, how the Ebola crisis will play out and affect people's propensity to avoid unnecessary travel and don't even seem to understand what stage we are at in the economic cycle.

Your wonderful analysis was summed up with the rough projection that each one cent decline in the N.Z. U.S. x rate reduced EPS by 1 cent so a 25 cent drop basically wipes out profit but then I posted their 2007 result making over $200m when the forex rate was mid 60's. You had no answer to that.

The difference between me and you mate, is I take the time to meet people on here and they know my credentials. I accept professional analysts forecasts as a good starting point and work my own assumptions from there, I don't pretend to have some theoretical special model that's God's gift to the investment community.

I'm not trying to forecast this years EPS, management don't know either other than initial signs are looking encouraging compared to 2014. That could easily turn to custard as new non-essential bookings start to get curtailed if Ebola goes rampant.

I reckon you should put in the time and effort to meet people on here so people can get to know your credentials if you want people to take you seriously.

Finally its you my friend that needs good luck with your own portfolio that you've admitted to me is not at all well diversified.

Ever heard of modern portfolio theory and diversification reducing risk. Good luck to you reducing you're so called 7 figure position if the Ebola crisis runs away on itself.

Apologies to other members, sometimes things have to be said. Sorry to pollute the thread with so my angst.

Some people on here who don't make the effort to get to know others and have a specific agenda whether its ramping or bleating like a trained parrot about AIR being a cartel are frustrating to say the least.

Still, what would I know, just 33 years experience as an accountant advising privately owned aviation operators... My 3 cents.

[modandm]

I wasn't limiting that statement simply to analysis. He frequently brings articles and insights both about the industry as a whole and company specific things that I had overlooked to my attention through this thread as well as generously sharing his conversations and insights with management with those of us unable to make it to the AGM.

very true and fair, sorry

[modandm]

Don't really care whether you take me seriously or not, and I have nothing to prove to you or anyone else.

No professional analysts thought they were going to earn what they did last year, but I had a view they would - not a certainty, it never is, but based on what I thought were fair assumptions. It's not because my model is better than theirs - I think the detail I go to on fuel costs is better than what they do, but otherwise its not. They likely get better access to management than I do. BUT I have made better assumptions, free of the pressures they face. You don't even understand the assumptions or the sensitivities - because you don't do any real analysis. All you do is turn up late to the party, and say relatively unbalanced (positive) things about the stock, without from what I can tell any position of good knowledge of either investment analysis or the company. Then get together with others that hold the stock (and so already have a positive bias), and back slap each other around the AGM over biscuits. The AGM is an event for the retail shareholder, like I say its dumbed down baby speak and PR. There are analyst day's and direct management access for the pros.

You keep repeating how old you are - thats great. With all your experience you should appreciate investing in boom-bust industries, and how to appropriately value a company for 'through the cycle' performance. I found your obstinate response to what I have said about and peak cycle multiples as particularly annoying given its commonly accepted practice. Regarding 2007 performance I thought the comment was too stupid to even solicit a response. 7 years is a long time, the cost base has risen significantly since then. Most obviously labour was $886m, vs $1151m last year. I would like to see the business model try and adjust back to that without some newspaper articles... I stand by what I said about FX, in the short run that is my best estimate, and the capex point is even more important.

Of course I have heard of portfolio theory, but I disagree with its relevance as do many. I share the view of buffet that risk is not knowing what your doing. Why dilute your returns with inferior ideas? He has most of his money in 4 or 5 companies. I'm the same. Trademe is the other NZ stock I own, a recent purchase. For you who don't know what they are doing please diversify.

And I'm well aware of ebola thanks, I read a detailed piece of research from a professional on it today. I'm comfortable that the risk is minimal.

Lets call it even tit-for-tat and end it here, I don't have any appetite for continued argument. I did want to highlight to others that your cheerleading of the stock is based on next to zero analysis of any value, and that point has been made.

-mod

[winner69]

Maybe if AIR is actually 'worth' $3 the market is discounting it back to current price fearing Virgin might dilute AIR's fantastic underlying performance.

Just a thought

[Beagle]

Yes lets leave it at that, you irk me and have affected my blood pressure this morning. People can make their own minds up, you a pseudonym who nobody has met and claim to have superior analytical skills to professional analysts or myself, who doesn't hide behind a pseudonym and who has made the effort to get out and meet people on here.

W69 Virgin won't give a forecast for 2015, they simply don't know how the year will play itself out and C.L. who's been to his first two board meetings at Virgin can't give any guidance.
Stock isn't worth $3 at present, simple as that, other than in the figment of someone's imagination.

[percy]

Roger.
I wish to record the excellent help,analysis,research and advice Roger has given me recently on a fixed interest investment I was out of my depth on.
I appreciate the time and effort he put into helping me.
Thank you very much Roger.

[Beagle]

Roger.
I wish to record the excellent help,analysis,research and advice Roger has given me recently on a fixed interest investment I was out of my depth on.
I appreciate the time and effort he put into helping me.
Thank you very much Roger.

Its always a pleasure to help mate and I wish to note that Percy picked up on one aspect of that investment I missed. A wise man is always ready to acknowledge he doesn't have all the answers
Its was great to catch up with you in Chch recently mate.

[noodles]

Roger.
I wish to record the excellent help,analysis,research and advice Roger has given me recently on a fixed interest investment I was out of my depth on.
I appreciate the time and effort he put into helping me.
Thank you very much Roger.

Likewise Roger. Always value you input (even if it is sometimes bullish).

And not wanting to take sides, I value modandm's quality research as well.

Both valuable contributors in my opinion. The stock is one of the more complex to analyse.

Analysts have yet to factor in the recent NZD decline as there have not been any new reports since late August. Perhaps punters have already been factoring it in (given the recent share price weakness).

I've also been underwhelmed by the last 2 monthly reports. Revenue seems pretty flat.

[bunter]

Why dilute your returns with inferior ideas? He has most of his money in 4 or 5 companies. I'm the same. Trademe is the other NZ stock I own, a recent purchase.
-mod

Air NZ? It's worth $2.69.

Modandm - my model is very crude and shallow compared to yours - would be interested to know what other stocks you hold.
I hold TME (val 3.54) but am thinking about selling.