AIR - Air NZ.

[Hoop]

TA told me to sell out at $2.05 the day after AIR went Ex-div.. I didn't!! .... as the large div total 15.5c is not adjusted into the chart and confused things somewhat...However if you notice other stock charts with div payouts most didn't trigger a sell after ex-div ...I gave AIR a chance to regather and strengthen but it didn't it just gave more sell signals...Yesterday with a NZX relief rally it failed to break any of its resistances...My defiance of my TA discipline at 2.05 was knawing at me ..enoughs enough and pushed the big red sell button..

EDIT,,,I added the NZ$ (green line) into the chart

[robbo24]

TA told me to sell out at $2.05 the day after AIR went Ex-div.. I didn't!!

Hoop, why do you use EMA as opposed to SMA?

[skid]

TA told me to sell out at $2.05 the day after AIR went Ex-div.. I didn't!! .... as the large div total 15.5c is not adjusted into the chart and confused things somewhat...However if you notice other stock charts with div payouts most didn't trigger a sell after ex-div ...I gave AIR a chance to regather and strengthen but it didn't it just gave more sell signals...Yesterday with a NZX relief rally it failed to break any of its resistances...My defiance of my TA discipline at 2.05 was knawing at me ..enoughs enough and pushed the big red sell button..

EDIT,,,I added the NZ$ (green line) into the chart

I cant see many shares gathering any momentum today after that Dow plunge last night--Sounds like you may have made a good move

I dont think we will see an NZ releif rally today--Should separate the men from the boys in terms of shares today.

[bunter]

as the large div total 15.5c is not adjusted into the chart and confused things somewhat.

Would have thought the sell signal was false for the reason you said - and that the prices after going ex-div ought to be increased by 15.5c.

I've been thinking about getting 'gross' share price data (from yahoo) to compare with the NZSE gross index. Lot of work.

BTW - is trading NZX shares using TA working for you? Or are commissions and slippage killing it?

[freddagg]

Modandm's research on AIR is better than any other that I have seen anywhere.

[Hoop]

Would have thought the sell signal was false for the reason you said - and that the prices after going ex-div ought to be increased by 15.5c.

I've been thinking about getting 'gross' share price data (from yahoo) to compare with the NZSE gross index. Lot of work.

BTW - is trading NZX shares using TA working for you? Or are commissions and slippage killing it?

Would have thought the sell signal was false for the reason you said - and that the prices after going ex-div ought to be increased by 15.5c. Well....there are a few schools of thought on whether the sell signal is false or not..I guess that is why there are two ways on a chart ..adjust or unadjusted...except the adjusted chart doesn't seem to work atm ......Anyway one school saying just add the 15.5c back but thats not correct as there's tax involved..usually its the historic price that is adjusted, its lessened to the current price.... However.......the appeal of shares after a huge div windfall can be lost, this shows up on momentum which is a sell signal on its own for some disciplines...............The other school says the shares should not be adjusted because the company NTA/share just took a dive of ~20c/share and this should be reflected in the share price, and it doesn't matter whether it went to the shareholders, the Taxman, in fines or a subsidary of the same value ($200M) going belly up it should all treated the same way..OK..people say AIR will earn that amount back in 9 to 10 months ..that is forward thinking and not 100% certain so there's a bit of added risk applied into the present shareprice to cover this..
TA works off the principle that investors know best and that demand will push the price up at some stage and only then will it trigger TA buy signals again..

I've been thinking about getting 'gross' share price data (from yahoo) to compare with the NZSE gross index. Lot of work. Manually yes..try using Google drive, then use their spreadsheet program, and hyperlink Google finance AIR data into it. Yahoo have seemed to cleaned up its act but I still treat their data as suspect.. Haven't found any problems with Google Finance..

BTW - is trading NZX shares using TA working for you? Yes, far better than what I was (FA long/very long term investor) Investing with TA takes all forms...I'm comfortable being a medium/long term trader which means I use TA indicators with the default settings..(defaulted to Medium term)...TA can still chuck me out after a few days but Phaedrus using meduim/long settings was in FBU for 7 years..my longest using TA was over 3 years in a stock....so there are periods where I mightn't trade for weeks or months.. Or are commissions and slippage killing it? No, commissions are negligible..I'm not telling anyone how much I invested in AIR but an indication is when 1c change in shareprice relates to $100, $200, commission of $30 $60 are certainly not killing the investment.

Hoop, why do you use EMA as opposed to SMA?

For a long time I got into a bad habit of just using SMA..(Often it was me being too lazy to change the indicators in the chart program )..It was on ST forum I can't remember who it was, Paper Tiger or KW ?? apologies if it was someone else...It was pointed out to me that when using a recently volatile share (PEB I think) then the latest shareprice should have more weight applied to it than its historic start period date therefore I should have used EMA50 not SMA50...It doesn't mean that EMA50 should always be used over that of SMA50..There are times when SMA50 should be used over EMA50 an example being when the current price affected by some sort of abnormal short-term (or unknown term) event or the share is in a trading range.

[MAC]

I’ve AIR as a smudge over fully valued about here (HY15 $1.75), but based on analyst consensus earnings estimates of FY15 $257M and FY16 $290M. On this basis, I wouldn’t be surprised to see AIR go sideways for six to twelve months now.

Modandm, not drilling AIR nearly as deeply as yourself, how well does all your appreciated effort and work correlate with analyst consensus at this time ?

[Beagle]

Well $3.00 NOW looks like a great valuation as I type with all the depth on the buy side being drilled out at $1.88.
OTOH I'm at $2.30 in late 2015 IF they can meet average analyst forecasts of underlying earnings of 23 cps for the June 2015 year and Ebola doesn't run away on itself.

[bunter]

Thanks Hoop - i did just the opposite - traded commodities using TA for four years - got nowhere.

Based on that experience I'd've though trading costs of .3% in and out, and slippage / spread of say 2% WOULD be significant, especially for a short to medium term trader.
Interesting.

Four years ago I set up two accounts - trading, mainly AUS shares, using TA, and long term investment, mainly in NZ shares, based on crude FA (but with a glance at TA too).
The long term FA picks actually did much better than the TA picks, even in the short term.

I guess most people are making money now, with the NZX is a long strong uptrend - but see quote below.

In theory TA traders will struggle in a sideways market.
Have been wondering about NZX futures too - so as to be able go short at some point.

All a bit off topic - go AIR!

[tricha]

Whats the alternatively? no regional flights - that will be next if the economics don't work.

yes we, the taxpayer bailed them out but the taxpayer has and with its current shareholding will continue to get a good return on investment....

Stop them killing of competion by price lowering.

They are a govt backed monolopy. With an unfair advantage.

Watch this space, Jetstar will be killed off soon. My prediction, airfares on the main routes will triple in two years.
Will John Keys do anything probably not, lip service in election year, just gone.

they need to be split like Telecon, to stop the monolopy and price gorging for Roger and his mates!