AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?

Well, maybe the cruise industry needs to adapt their destinations. Pretty sure countries like e.g. Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, and many other South Sea destinations but as well places like Antarctica will be safe for cruising after the first vaccination sweep:

[iceman]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.



Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

Agree with much of your post Jaa but have a huge concern about how slow NZ is with vaccinations. While much of Europe and USA are aiming to have herd immunity through vaccinations by Q3 this year which will release a lot of the pent up travel demand, NZ has announced it will be 12 months from now that we have such herd immunity and borders will stay closed meanwhile. So none of the pent up demand will travel to NZ next summer potentially destroying a lot of tourist businesses and possibly whole towns like Queenstown, Akaroa, Franz Josef, Te Anau just to name a few that are really struggling

[BlackPeter]

Agree with much of your post Jaa but have a huge concern about how slow NZ is with vaccinations. While much of Europe and USA are aiming to have herd immunity through vaccinations by Q3 this year which will release a lot of the pent up travel demand, NZ has announced it will be 12 months from now that we have such herd immunity and borders will stay closed meanwhile. So none of the pent up demand will travel to NZ next summer potentially destroying a lot of tourist businesses and possibly whole towns like Queenstown, Akaroa, Franz Josef, Te Anau just to name a few that are really struggling

Probably not the right thread for this subject, but I tend to agree. It appears that government and other xenophobes enjoy the locked borders and want to keep them closed in perpetuity. While they drag the chain on vaccinations they can rethink (think minimize) both future tourism as well as any future immigration.

[iceman]

I think this subject is highly relevant to AIR BlackPeter

[BlackPeter]

I think this subject is highly relevant to AIR BlackPeter

You are right ... the outcome of these policies (or is it more the nationalist / racist / arrogant attitude which shows through in them) is clearly highly relevant (and highly damaging) for AIR, but it is as well highly relevant for any tourism company, for our schools and universities as well as our general work culture and the cultural diversity we used to enjoy. Many of our high tech companies are absolutely dependent on the free flow of minds - and government does whatever they can to stop this flow in the long run using Covid as a convenient excuse.

Watching this government turning New Zealand from an open and welcoming society into a bastion of xenophobes (no visitors, please, we are New Zealanders ...) might suit the NZ First clients (which funnily are not even anymore part of the government), but it will damage New Zealand's economy, culture and standing in the world. Better we stem this process soon - the current thoughts on severely curbing immigration and tourism are in my view nuts.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Kz_ISc0lc Some people have been busy enjoying the peace and solitude of the Fiordland national park without hordes of tourists...lucky chaps.
Interesting new boat design. I was born down that way and grew up enjoying the area without hordes of tourists. Putting labels on people just because they don't especially like millions of people coming here and crowding out our wilderness isn't cool. Last time we were in Te Anua you couldn't move for the vast numbers of tourist buses coming through.

[Blue Skies]

You are right ... the outcome of these policies (or is it more the nationalist / racist / arrogant attitude which shows through in them) is clearly highly relevant (and highly damaging) for AIR, but it is as well highly relevant for any tourism company, for our schools and universities as well as our general work culture and the cultural diversity we used to enjoy. Many of our high tech companies are absolutely dependent on the free flow of minds - and government does whatever they can to stop this flow in the long run using Covid as a convenient excuse.

Watching this government turning New Zealand from an open and welcoming society into a bastion of xenophobes (no visitors, please, we are New Zealanders ...) might suit the NZ First clients (which funnily are not even anymore part of the government), but it will damage New Zealand's economy, culture and standing in the world. Better we stem this process soon - the current thoughts on severely curbing immigration and tourism are in my view nuts.

Let me get this right, you're saying this govt is a, nationalist (meaning?) racist, xenophobic government using Covid as a convenient excuse to implement these policies & close down the free flow of minds/thought ?
And NZ's remarkable achievement of eradicating Covid from our country & therefore as a gateway into the Pacific Island nations, causing immense suffering and collapsing health systems in both, will damage NZ's standing in the world?

Hmm..., I'ld have to say that's not a commonly help perspective.

[Beagle]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...+February+2021

No surprise that Kiwi's in general are more comfortable driving than flying and that's certainly how Mrs B and I feel too.

[Blue Skies]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...+February+2021

No surprise that Kiwi's in general are more comfortable driving than flying and that's certainly how Mrs B and I feel too.

Back in level 3 in Auckland, just when we thought about flying down for a brief holiday to the South Island.
Already got one lot of credits for Covid cancelled flights, can do without any more.

[Beagle]

Back in level 3 in Auckland, just when we thought about flying down for a brief holiday to the South Island.
Already got one lot of credits for Covid cancelled flights, can do without any more.

We very nearly booked a trip to Invercargill for this week to do a factory tour at Stabicraft boats and sea trial of that boat I posted a link for above. In hindsight I am very pleased Mrs B was very reluctant to fly.