AIR - Air NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

But they're not going away, or bust, are they? That won't happen. It's just another 'once in two decades' opportunity to time a decent stake. Patience.

[Beagle]

But they're not going away, or bust, are they? That won't happen. It's just another 'once in two decades' opportunity to time a decent stake. Patience.

I'm up for a few hundred thousand if it gets down to 25 cents again.

[Arbroath]

Current market cap (sp $1.43) - $1.6 billion

Capital raise - say $1.3 billion.

Expect highly dilutive rights issue for capital raise - will have to be done at a deep discount to current sp for underwriters to be comfortable.

So 2:1 at 60 cents to raise $1.3 billion as a possibility?

This could be a bloodbath of a capital raise once reality hits. I remember Fletcher Forests doing a 2:1 at 25 cents and the share price went from about 70 cents all the way to the issue price because of the obscene number of new shares to be issued.

A 2:1 at 60 cents will raise the cash but the 2.3 billion of new shares should see the price head towards 60-70 cents as there would be 3.5 billion of shares in issue. Wow!

Probably then do a Sky and consolidate maybe 5:1 to get a $4 share price again to be respectable.

[Balance]

Remember Fletcher Forests well - ouch!!!!

The recent Sky rights issue (2.83:1 @12c) when the sp was 30c is the best recent example of a highly diluted rights issue. Sp went all the way down to 12.9c - painful for holders.

But there’s obviously an opportunity here - matter of seeing how low the sp goes.

Suspect that most of Air NZ would be held by retail investors these days so most of them are going to have the shock of their lives when they are ‘invited’ to put in more money into the airline.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You know he was. You'd need to be pretty brave and have great endurance to get on one of those so called Dreamliner's with their sardine can sized seats and sit next to a bunch of strangers breathing in all their expelled breath as well as all the recycled air for 13 hours all the way to Vancouver. Whatever's in their lungs, is definitely in yours

it’s amazing/scary how quickly humans have gone back to previous behavior despite CV being everywhere. In US, despite lack of foreign tourism, air travel passenger levels in 2021 was within striking distance of pre-pandemic volume (84%) and by Dec 2021 Hollidays it was actually above the prepandemic level.

I myself am surprised how my own sub-conscious changed now that Omicron has become widespread. A month ago I thought it would be many years before contemplating international holiday travel again, but now that Omicron is everywhere in NZ I see little difference in going to Queenstown vs going to Melbourne or Honolulu.

[bottomfeeder]

Any guesses on what AIR Ords are really worth now ahead of the coming "Fill in a Large Hole"
at any price exercise ?

$1.43 currently definitely looks more than slightly out the door fresh AIR material than reality

Seen it time and time again. SP's always gets close to issue price after CR. Have to be priced at max as well as at a price that will entice an underwriter.

[BlackPeter]

Air Canada also quick off the mark to announce new services so there's no doubt the competition will coming flooding back.

... and they might get more custom than ever ... at the moment the route over the Americas to Europe looks so much more attractive than the alternative across Asia & Russia / Ukraine / Iran / ...

[Beagle]

it’s amazing/scary how quickly humans have gone back to previous behavior despite CV being everywhere. In US, despite lack of foreign tourism, air travel passenger levels in 2021 was within striking distance of pre-pandemic volume (84%) and by Dec 2021 Hollidays it was actually above the prepandemic level.

I myself am surprised how my own sub-conscious changed now that Omicron has become widespread. A month ago I thought it would be many years before contemplating international holiday travel again, but now that Omicron is everywhere in NZ I see little difference in going to Queenstown vs going to Melbourne or Honolulu.

You're obviously a young pup...I see them everywhere at bars and restaurants, jam packed in wearing no masks. That's one thing but sitting next to a whole bunch of strangers in a thin aluminum tube breathing their exhaled air, that's another thing. I won't be flying to Queenstown or anywhere else anytime soon.

Like other old hands above I also remember the Fletcher Forests thing but more importantly I remember the last time this crashed and burned when capital was raised at 25 cents a share. As many have already noted the share price inevitably gravitates to the rights issue price as shareholders are shocked with the extent of the capital raise. I can see the Sharsies crown, already reeling from a shocking start to the market in 2022 feeling like a Jumbo jet has run them over when they're asked to put their hands in their pockets for heaps more capital ands then watching the share price head down to a very similar level. Who is brave enough to underwrite this capital raise ?

[winner69]

You're obviously a young pup...I see them everywhere at bars and restaurants, jam packed in wearing no masks. That's one thing but sitting next to a whole bunch of strangers in a thin aluminum tube breathing their exhaled air, that's another thing. I won't be flying to Queenstown or anywhere else anytime soon.

Like other old hands above I also remember the Fletcher Forests thing but more importantly I remember the last time this crashed and burned when capital was raised at 25 cents a share. As many have already noted the share price inevitably gravitates to the rights issue price as shareholders are shocked with the extent of the capital raise. I can see the Sharsies crown, already reeling from a shocking start to the market in 2022 feeling like a Jumbo jet has run them over when they're asked to put their hands in their pockets for heaps more capital ands then watching the share price head down to a very similar level. Who is brave enough to underwrite this capital raise ?

and that last time i'm sure non government shareholders didn't get the chance to participate ....they just had to grin and bear it as the government loaded up their coffers and ended up with 80% plus of the company

So sharesies people (and others) might not have to find any spare cash

Of course that won't happen this time around will it

[Beagle]

and that last time i'm sure non government shareholders didn't get the chance to participate ....they just had to grin and bear it as the government loaded up their coffers and ended up with 80% plus of the company

So sharesies people (and others) might not have to find any spare cash

Of course that won't happen this time around will it

My memory has faded a bit but I do believe you're right and of course the same thing could easily happen again especially with this Govt's extreme socialist approach. Minority shareholders could easily be the sacrificial lamb.