AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Govt made heaps up to 2016.

Put in $1043 million and up to 2016 got $1234 million cash back up to 2016 and still had shares worth $1341 million

Pretty good eh

I might quickly look at what’s happened since …it’s been about $572m in divies and current holding worth about $830m ……so last few years only slightly ahead (divies 572m v cap loss 511m)

https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publica...aland-part-1-3

[Dassets]

SORRY CHART DOESN"T POST EDIT
Here is the chart prior to the bailout out in 2002. Feb 01 2000 share price at $9.42. It fell for 2 years til finally in October 2001 a rescue package was announced giving the government 82% at 24 cents, the cash available early 2002. A further cash injection was required in 2004 at 27 cents. In 2013 the Crown sold $365m and its stake dropped to 53%. So the lessons are 1. The government can wipe out minorities with the 2001 bailout at 3% of the price less than 2 years before. 2. It can then use "investors" later, and 3. It can own much more than 52%(its current position). Now while this is not the same government than the other 2, this govt's ideal's are clear. And shareholders are not as important as voters.

One last thing, I understand that the take-up by Sharesies clients of recent cash issues and placements has dropped off a proverbial cliff. So unless this cash issue is priced at a level that institutions believe there is an investment case then the cash issue will not fly or the government, as an assumed underwriter, will own all but the lot.

When the government find there is no support the price will be cut to the bone and they will own it. Some of the recent broker research is fascinating. One well known broker says AIR will have to raise $1.3B. The derived numbers show a cash issue of 1.3 B shares at an issue price of $1. So about 1.2 new shares for 1 old share, or an entry price at CMP of $1.42+$1.20 = $2.62 /2.2 shares means avg entry price of $1.19 per share. At that issue that broker says NTA is circa $0.50-60 (not going to use precise so the broker is not identified). Goodwill of 60 to 70 cents per share on 2.4B shares or $1.45 to $1.7B. AIR only ever achieved that level of goodwill very briefly over the past 15 years(won't bother with before) when it was paying big dividends and flying in clear blue skies.

Then that broker says it will need to borrow ALOT(keeping the number out) in FY23. Cashflow from operations and after capex is negative. Just wow. Who is going to lend to them and at what rate??

As I say this first cap raise will be followed by 2 raising a similar amount. The first cash issue at 50 cents, non renounceable but you never know. That means

[Beagle]

Good post Dassets. I forgot about the subsequent cash injection in 2004, two years later.
I think they're on the same flight path here. The first cash issue will solve their immediate needs and a second one will be required to restore operational solvency 2 years hence if not earlier. Maybe a third as well. You're dead right about this Govt's ideologies so the potential to treat existing minorities with complete contempt should be readily apparent to all, especially with the benefit of looking at the previous history of how this was handled 20 years ago.
Buying the shares now is analogous to taking a hospital pass on the Rugby field...you're going to get absolutely smashed.

[Waltzing]

think we have clearly seen that this GOVT doesnt know what financial accounting actually is.

and as MR B has been saying for while its flying on fumes and some hot air currents.

one wondered when the SHAZ would come to understand what a sharp spin operation SHAZ HQ is..

what till this stock drops it hat onto the market and the SHAZ get taken out to the wood shed....

GUY's fav saying ...

[winner69]

A few days before the 2001 bailout AIR boss proudly announced 'no worries, we have a billion dollars in cash'

Does AIR have a billion dollars cash on hand at the moment

[Beagle]

A few days before the 2001 bailout AIR boss proudly announced 'no worries, we have a billion dollars in cash'

Does AIR have a billion dollars cash on hand at the moment

LOL I remember that like it was yesterday. They have been touting their so called liquidity lately...which is really just the amount of the Governments bailout loan that's left and of course that does not account for the other liability which is ticket sales in advance. I think we all know the airline is properly insolvent so there is unlikely to be any talk about a billion in cash this time but you can set your watch by the fact that in several places throughout the capital raise documentation the words revive and thrive will be used....probably many times in an attempt to put lipstick on this pig.

[Arbroath]

LOL I remember that like it was yesterday. They have been touting their so called liquidity lately...which is really just the amount of the Governments bailout loan that's left and of course that does not account for the other liability which is ticket sales in advance. I think we all know the airline is properly insolvent so there is unlikely to be any talk about a billion in cash this time but you can set your watch by the fact that in several places throughout the capital raise documentation the words revive and thrive will be used....probably many times in an attempt to put lipstick on this pig.

I just can’t rationalise this one. Having gone large on several deeply discounted and highly dilutive rights issues I think this one is probably worth letting go outside off stump. It’s probably 4 wides in the making.

[Beagle]

I just can’t rationalise this one. Having gone large on several deeply discounted and highly dilutive rights issues I think this one is probably worth letting go outside off stump. It’s probably 4 wides in the making.

plus 4 overthrows when the ball is thrown back to the keeper and mishandled again.

[BlackPeter]

LOL I remember that like it was yesterday. They have been touting their so called liquidity lately...which is really just the amount of the Governments bailout loan that's left and of course that does not account for the other liability which is ticket sales in advance. I think we all know the airline is properly insolvent so there is unlikely to be any talk about a billion in cash this time but you can set your watch by the fact that in several places throughout the capital raise documentation the words revive and thrive will be used....probably many times in an attempt to put lipstick on this pig.

Maybe they should rebrand it at the same time to "Air Phoenix" ... I understand the process of revival used to work for this magic bird ... at least that's what the fairy tales are saying ...

[Dassets]

Maybe they should rebrand it at the same time to "Air Phoenix" ... I understand the process of revival used to work for this magic bird ... at least that's what the fairy tales are saying ...

I found the recipe in my trusty "Harry Potter and Robo's Enterprises' Kitchen of Magic" omnibus(given to me when I left the West Coast(Central) Socialist Curling Club).

To Rescue An Airline
Add
1 x Poultice of self Folding Cash(add 2 to 3 times poultice for severe cases)(if not enough on hand request more from the printer)
Pay rises to Pilots(no need for other in flight personnel) as required
Chant the Phrases " Light at the End of the Tunnel", "Revive", " Thrive" and "Growth" at least 53 x each.

Note for this recipe to work you must gather as much cash as possible from muggles offering flight to such muggles without giving them flight(in itself another magical spell may be required).