AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Prediction (Not A Forecast) using the same Level 4 Ballistic Vest protection as the AIR disclaimer which incidentally I don't think I have seen before. AIR will make some SRT(Survive etc) announcements on how well 'growth' is going. "Pax enjoying int travel again with the Akl Syd up 350% yoy". Losses shrinking etc. 2 years down the track they will start blaming continuing losses on consumer carbon consciousness, persistent high fuel prices, reduced corporate demand due to zoom and overhang of legacy credit issuance from the Pandemic Era.

Jarden reiterates SELL rating and target price is reduced to 65 cents - paywalled https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JCTMZUDDB42VY/
Dame Therese Walsh looks resplendent in Synlait Pink and Greg Foran has a colour matched tie, what could possibly go wrong

Key Assumptions underpinning their "guesses", (not an exhaustive list by any means but just ones I wish to comment on)

From the middle of 2022, international travel (excluding China and
Hong Kong where international borders are expected to remain closed) is uninterrupted,
with no self-isolation restrictions and testing requirements easing for inbound and
outbound customers on Air New Zealand's key routes
Chance of another Covid variant causing further major disruption looks very real to me.

By 2025 aggregate passenger demand for domestic, Tasman and Pacific Islands travel will marginally exceed FY19 (financial year) levels, supported by network growth into those markets; and aggregate passenger demand for long haul will be slightly lower than FY19 levels (due to fewer ASKs flown overall), and have a more gradual pace of recovery relative to short-haul markets.
Completely overlooks the high probability that Covid has changed people's propensity for air travel

No long-term structural changes in travel behaviour or trends post-pandemic, including resulting from environmental sustainability concerns, health concerns related to Covid19, technological changes, or changes in customer preference.
I think this is ridiculous. There's no question doing business by Zoom or other digital platforms has become an accepted zero risk way of conducting business. Companies will be very reluctant to send senior executives on long distance flights due to the risks involved to key personnel and the risks of litigation. I think its safe to say the front end of the aircraft where the company makes a lot of its money is going to be affected materially for the foreseeable future. Its also clear there's rising awareness of the environmental impacts of jet travel.
AIR's assumptions here look fundamentally flawed to me.

Fuel prices are assumed to progressively reduce to $75 per barrel for the 2024 financial year.
Yes we'd all like that but its complete and utter guesswork and looks extremly optimistic.

Final comment - I used red because shareholders are going to have to get used to seeing a LOT of red ink in AIR's financial statements in the future !

[bassamrassam]

Thank you JTH. I thought the record date is when you buy them on the NZX. Or did I not get what you said correctly ?

[winner69]

What’s the market depth saying?

[Rawz]

What is this bad boy going to open at?

[Balance]

Shareshies crowd out in force at $1.37.

Going to be a fascinating day of learning for them!

[Maxtrade]

What is this bad boy going to open at?

Quite astounding the resilience of the current market depth with Cap Raise being more than double what was expected. Whats an extra Billion between friends right Surely even retail folk can see what this size Cap Raise means. The resulting dilution of shareholders value. In one way forcing them to inject more capital at an offer to buy 2 shares for each share you currently own at a 'discounted Cap Raise offer' to try to make it look attractive. ie Cost averaging down as the share price will need to be low enough to be attractive to get funds through the cap raise. With no dividends in sight. Years away from breaking even let alone become profitable. Shareholders can expect to see previous low end trough of 0.70-0.80 tested for sure. Will be surprised if there is not a massive sell down ahead of Cap Raise. As post this massive unprecedented (in NZ) cap raise there will not likely be any reason for share price to rally, so those looking for a quick buck off buying in at cap raise offer and selling to make 10-20% won't be interested as likely will at best see SP plateau at Cap Raise price, or slowly decline, as most Cap Raise offers have seen in recent times. As many of us were suggesting on this thread for a long time, blood batch to share holders in the water. Surprised with so much pre warning there wasn't already a mass exodus. Those hat live in hope I guess. But no body expected the raise to be this big. Most analysts are recommending their fund managers downgrade and sell off / reduce current portfolio exposure. Will be interesting to see where Cap Raise price is set and how long support remains in market depth until everyone understands the reality of this 2 Billion dollar 'fund raising campaign' (to pay debt!) that has just been announced.

[Sideshow Bob]

Shareshies crowd out in force at $1.37.

Going to be a fascinating day of learning for them!

640k through at $1.37......What the F.....

[ordop]

This has to be New Zealand's version of GameStop. Very early days but it appears many ordinary New Zealanders still have plenty of dollars to burn...

[iceman]

640k through at $1.37......What the F.....

This is incredible ? What am I missing here ?

[percy]

This has to be New Zealand's version of GameStop. Very early days but it appears many ordinary New Zealanders still have plenty of dollars to burn...

Took years for NZders to return to the market after 1987 crash.
Now they are back for more,.
Sad to watch.