AIR - Air NZ.

[ordop]

I’ve been feeling for weeks it’s been heavily manipulated and now it’s falling in a hole after the money is raised. Call me cynical but it’s performance is much worse than the markets the past 2-3 sessions.

When the underwriters IB team are getting well rewarded for the cap raise by AIR, the underwriters Insto trading desk can afford a 'loss leading' long trading position in AIR. All about painting a narrative whilst the issue is still open. Just bewildered mugs were prepared to pay up to 81cps on the shortfall bookbuild - that equates to $1.37 pre rights.

As for the 'horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down' piece, ahaha, welcome to a Dutch auction for a naïve investor.

But what makes the whole charade even more impressive was how the underwriters successfully did this during a period of high fuel prices, very high inflation and economic gloom. Some absolute mugs in NZ with too many dollars and not enough sense.

[Dassets]

They only adjust NTA on FY numbers i think, not half year. Plus take off the 50mil on fees

[Beagle]

NZX just updated their website.

3.368B shares on issue, $0.349 NTA per share - perhaps not adjusted for the cash they just got in.....

$811m net assets as at 31/12 + $1.2b just raised. I reckon net assets of approx $0.597 per share.

They lost $376m in the first half of the financial year. I haven't done an indepth search of latest announcements, but they did say full year loss wouldn't exceed $800m. So we'll "be kind" and say $250m loss (no doubt plenty of govt ministers on planes in the next year or so). Another 7.4c per share, taking it down to around 52 cents.

Then further losses expected in following years. Notwithstanding the macro environment with fuel, war, inflation, China lockdown etc etc.

Doesn't exactly look like a bargain at $0.70......

Top post. More huge losses in FY23 and FY24 to come. I am happy to wait for 25 cents.

[BlackPeter]

When the underwriters IB team are getting well rewarded for the cap raise by AIR, the underwriters Insto trading desk can afford a 'loss leading' long trading position in AIR. All about painting a narrative whilst the issue is still open. Just bewildered mugs were prepared to pay up to 81cps on the shortfall bookbuild - that equates to $1.37 pre rights.

As for the 'horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down' piece, ahaha, welcome to a Dutch auction for a naïve investor.

But what makes the whole charade even more impressive was how the underwriters successfully did this during a period of high fuel prices, very high inflation and economic gloom. Some absolute mugs in NZ with too many dollars and not enough sense.

Has nothing to do with NZ. Many humans tend to be in extreme situations hype driven ... otherwise it wouldn't be often fear and greed shaking the markets. Just look at the mugs investing in cryptocurrency ... no fundamentals, 100% hype.

I guess these AIR "investors" (all hoping to make a quick buck - i.e. greed-driven) got at least some fundamentals for their dollar, even if its not a lot and even if the risks for the remaining fundamentals disappearing are not neglegible.

Just another useful lesson in human psychology, even if the people who needed it are most likely to ignore it - again.

[Maxtrade]

Has nothing to do with NZ. Many humans tend to be in extreme situations hype driven ... otherwise it wouldn't be often fear and greed shaking the markets. Just look at the mugs investing in cryptocurrency ... no fundamentals, 100% hype.

I guess these AIR "investors" (all hoping to make a quick buck - i.e. greed-driven) got at least some fundamentals for their dollar, even if its not a lot and even if the risks for the remaining fundamentals disappearing are not neglegible.

Just another useful lesson in human psychology, even if the people who needed it are most likely to ignore it - again.

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

[Beagle]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Having worked on my Uncle's farm in my younger days to pay my way through Uni I can tell you from first hand experience with more than 5000 of them that sheep are not deep thinkers LOL

[BlackPeter]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Maybe you should study human history ... and then answer your own question ;

But if that's too much effort:

one of Einstein's (a quite smart guy) more famous cititations goes like 'Two Things Are Infinite: the Universe and Human Stupidity". It is as well reported that he was not so sure about the infinity of the universe ...

If many people agree, then this is called :"GroupThink". This is an interesting psychological phenomena, but not a good indicator for the relevant groups being right.

And if you need more indicators:

32% of the world's population are Christians, 23% are Muslims, 22% are Hindus or Buddhists and roughly 7% are atheists. OK - Hinduism and Budhism might be from their perspective not necessarily be mutually exclusive with other religions, but the others are with each other and with them.

Now - even 7% of the world population are already more than 500 million people, who clearly can't all be wrong, can they? Without investigating which of these more or less mutual exclusive religions / convictions is right ... no matter, which of them it is - the majority of people clearly must be wrong.

Ouch.

[Dassets]

This is back from mid-Nov on the NTA issue. I will also repeat AIR will lose money at least until FY25, unless it does an almighty cost out. Why? Just because you fly plane on a route doesn't mean you make money. Load factor break even I can only guess cause haven't modelled for over 20 years but probably 60% under the old rules when business seats paid for alot of the flight. Note today's announcement on re-hiring aka costs. Cost out exercise coming doesn't reconcile with that re-hiring.

I predict(not forecast under FMA rules lol) 2-3 cap raises. 1st, the "Light at the End of Tunnel" raise, 2nd, the "Almost at the End of the Tunnel, Just got to get There" raise and finally the "Recovery Opening up Opportunities(but we are cash-flow negative and just need some money brother because we been flying for no cash cause of them pesky credits) " raise. $3 to 4 billion in total. "Welcome to my parlour boys" Quote JA 2022.

A couple of posts on NTA from last year and Feb this year. IMO NTA after the cap raise is about 35 cents per share incl additional shares. My next prediction, Foran will be gone within 12 months and not because of Henry's article either. Remember the credits still have to be dealt with!! No-one talks about that inconvenient fact. eg I am flying to the US business class in June. Paid $6t return on AIRNZ and used $2T credits. Cash handed over $4T. Cash costs for flight are Fuel cost for the 2 flights circa NZD$240T. Say a biz seat takes up 1% of pax space, that leaves $1600 cash to pay for everything else, staff, maintenance, overhead, airways, airport charges and not least food, Jack Daniels and champagne or $800 per flight. Hopefully they skimp on the maintenance and not the Jack Daniels or champagne and some of the food. Staff I don't care, one pilot is enough(I can help lowering the gear or something, a couple of radio calls, the public time adjustment and weather announcement call too!). And when the board's name change paper to AIR Aotearoa or AeroFlop(Robbo's idea, thanks Min!) comes around the Survive Revive Thrive will be complete. This post all in jest btw except for the numbers.

[Sideshow Bob]

Quite surprising that 0.70 level has even been holding . Amazing how much depth there currently is on the buy side. Surely there cant be that many sheep out there not running figures and looking at real data can there!?

Up to $0.74 today - No doubt some of it the border announcement, but still, go figure.....

[Waltzing]

A380's are back!!

This may have been posted already.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...to-new-zealand