AIR - Air NZ.

[Jaa]

Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while

June report makes miserable reading

Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers

Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...574/376058.pdf

What a bizarre and backwards looking way to read the report

June passenger numbers were up 18% overall and passenger revenue kms up even more at 33%. Most importantly overall load factor is 87.7%, the highest I have seen it in 20 years of watching off and on.

In June Air NZ was still scaling back up. The unsustainably high load factor shows they failed to do this fast enough especially across the Tasman and to the US.

Remember NZ only stopped breaking the law and let back in our own people a few months ago and many families were still blocked from re-uniting until a few days ago. Pre-flight tests were also still required in June. Still loads of pent up demand.

The money maker LAX route increasing to 17x weekly from Aug 15 shows the direction of travel.

[biker]

Share price firming nicely on reasonable volume. Looking for more traction leading up to the results in a couple of weeks then back to book-build price and beyond.
Disc: Hold a lot so I’m biased.

[Vitamin_A]

No company has as much operating leverage as an airline. We've seen the impact of it working in reverse. It kills the business almost overnight if passenger numbers fall. But, now we are seeing the operating leverage across both short and long haul working in the right direction. As long as China doesn't do anything silly with Taiwan, AIR will be making profits across it's network.

[Maxtrade]

Share price firming nicely on reasonable volume. Looking for more traction leading up to the results in a couple of weeks then back to book-build price and beyond.
Disc: Hold a lot so I’m biased.

Would seem thew dip down to 0.53 previously was a brief bottom and not going to fall back anywhere near the CR again as some posts were predicting back in this forum's thread.

[biker]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 67 cents, so far he has made a profit of $262,540 in less than 3 months - just over 10%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.

[BlackPeter]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 66.5 cents, so far he has made a profit of $241,900 in less than 3 months - just over 9.6%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.

It is a good sign that he believes in this company ... but lets face it - nobody, not even Greg Foran knows how travel, virus and war will play out over the years to come.

It might work out very nicely ... or it might not.

[biker]

It is a good sign that he believes in this company ... but lets face it - nobody, not even Greg Foran knows how travel, virus and war will play out over the years to come.

It might work out very nicely ... or it might not.

Yes, like any stock on the market. It’s price might go up……..or its price might go down.

[Ggcc]

By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 67 cents, so far he has made a profit of $262,540 in less than 3 months - just over 10%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.

Getting started by getting out of the poo it got into. Sure not by any means the companies fault. Covid and Government legislations are what will slow this companies growth.

[Sideshow Bob]

Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result

Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange


2022 Financial summary
• Loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million ,compared to $444 million in the prior year
• Statutory loss before taxation of $810 million
• Operating revenue lifts 9 percent to $2.7 billion, driven by Cargo performance
• Recapitalisation completed in May, raising $2.2 billion
• Liquidity of $2.3 billion as at 23 August

In a year of ongoing twists and turns, Air New Zealand has recapitalised its business and, in the last quarter, experienced greater than expected demand for travel, while managing rising costs and an ongoing pandemic.

The airline has today announced a loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million for the 2022 financial year, consistent with guidance provided to the market in June. The statutory loss before taxation was $810 million .

Although the financial year ended strongly following the phased reopening of New Zealand’s borders from March, the airline’s operating revenue of $2.7 billion was significantly impacted by pandemic related travel restrictions.

Cargo and domestic revenues helped lift overall revenue by 9 percent, however high fuel prices and reduced flying over much of the year resulted in a loss for the period.

Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran said the airline continued to be guided by a clear strategy, moving deftly to address continued change by focusing on doing the right thing for its stakeholders.

“For customers, we’ve been focused on restoring services, maintaining a choice of fares and launching innovations to improve their journey with us. For our amazing staff we have provided one-off awards to acknowledge their continued extra mahi, and for our communities we’ve been obsessed with operational performance, which drives the reliable services they depend on,” says Mr Foran.
“For our shareholders, whose support has refuelled the business for future growth, we’ve completed a successful recapitalisation that was structured to be fair to our shareholders, including those that didn’t take up the rights offer.”

Mr Foran said cargo revenue continued to be a major contributor to the company’s performance, up 32 percent to $1.0 billion. Additional flying under the New Zealand and Australian government airfreight schemes contributed $403 million of that revenue. With borders now largely reopened, the Australian scheme has ended, and the New Zealand scheme is tapering off and will cease by the end of March 2023.

Firmly in the ‘revive’ phase of the ‘survive, revive, thrive’ journey, Mr Foran says the current environment is one of strong bookings despite ongoing challenges.

When travel restrictions began to lift in March the company recorded a very strong recovery in bookings and revenues. This trend continues, with high booking levels through July and August. Corporate bookings are also encouraging and are trending closely towards pre-Covid levels.

Mr Foran referred to the airline’s mid-August schedule changes, which reduced seats by 1.5 percent through to the end of March 2023, as another example of doing the right thing for stakeholders.

“As we’ve been seeing overseas, travel demand is much stronger than anyone anticipated. But we’re operating in a very tight labour market with high fuel prices, tough economic conditions and the highest levels of employee sickness in more than a decade.
“Our rehiring efforts and training capability have been excellent, as has work to get our Boeing 777-300ER aircraft back flying again, but the experience for some of our customers and the impact on our front-line staff this winter has been unacceptable, so we’ve adapted yet again.

“Having adjusted our schedule to provide customers with increased surety over their travel plans for the coming spring and summer, I am hugely appreciative of the work the Air New Zealand whānau has done to deliver more than 25,000 flights across June and July alone.”

The airline also made investment decisions in support of its Kia Mau strategy. These include the plan to move the Auckland workforce to its airport campus, investment in a new hangar at Auckland airport and the decision to close its Gas Turbines business unit by the middle of the 2023 calendar year.

Air New Zealand Chair Dame Therese Walsh thanked Greg and the Air New Zealand team for a year in which the airline not only managed significant challenges but also introduced changes that will deliver improved services to customers and made progress on their long-term sustainability goals.

“The airline’s continued ability to step carefully through an ongoing pandemic while looking beyond the horizon is becoming a core capability. While introducing and then removing vaccination requirements for domestic travel, there have been preparations for our New York launch and the completion of designs for our new Boeing 787 Dreamliner cabin experience.

“For our AirpointsTM members there were more than 2,000 new products added to our AirpointsTM store as well as the introduction of Flexipay, so customers can enjoy even more online shopping options. I’m especially excited about our next generation app, which will give customers a more seamless travel experience when it rolls out in the coming months.
“In April we announced ‘Flight NZ0’, a programme to engage customers as we work towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. We were the second airline globally to announce an interim science-based target to 2030 and continue to make progress on sustainable aviation fuel and zero emissions aircraft technology.

“Throughout the year we have also made improvements to the pay and conditions for our people, settling 12 collective employment agreements, increasing the base pay of our front-line workers and restarting incentive payments to staff on individual employment agreements ensure we retain our dedicated team.”

Dame Therese acknowledged the support the airline has received from its shareholders over the course of a challenging two-year period.

“From the Crown loan provided in the early days of the pandemic, to the airfreight support scheme that helped us keep connected to key export markets, to the $2.2 billion recapitalisation completed in May which allowed thousands of shareholders to take part in refuelling the airline for success. We have had significant support from all our shareholders and for that we are truly grateful.”
Strong liquidity position with dividend suspended

As at 23 August 2022, the airline has available liquidity of $2.3 billion, consisting of approximately $1.9 billion in cash and $400 million of available funds on the unsecured standby loan facility with the Crown. The cash balance includes $200 million of issued redeemable shares which the airline intends to redeem once our recovery is further progressed.

The Board does not expect to consider payment of dividends before the airline’s earnings substantially recover, and in the context of a supportive and sustained broader economic environment and recovery.

Outlook for 2023

With borders now open to the majority of the airline’s markets, Air New Zealand expects the 2023 financial year to represent the first full year of uninterrupted passenger flying since the beginning of the pandemic.

Total flying capacity for the 2023 financial year is expected to be in the range of 75 percent to 80 percent of pre-Covid levels. On this basis, the airline anticipates a significant improvement in financial performance relative to financial year 2022.

Given the degree of uncertainty regarding volatility in jet fuel prices, the risk of a global recession, and other macroeconomic factors including inflationary pressures on costs, no earnings guidance will be provided at this time.

[Dassets]

But here is the gorilla in the chandelier shop. AIR has $1.1 billion of revenue in advance(current and long) as at end Dec 20. And YES the money already spent!! Guess what, that problem just gets bigger with the last bubble burst. Revenue for Aussi lock down now credit notes issued (including moi). When they come to be used no actual cash in the tin. However they still need to pay for fuel and the pilots' 6 percent proposed pay rise. Should give the pilots an IOU..... or better a UOM(you owe me). I reiterate re the cap raise.. who is going to sign that off. As a director I wouldn't.

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.