AIR - Air NZ.

[nztx]

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.

so possibility of further sheep being taken for a ride to hoist the fusilage to a slightly more even keel ?

SP seems to have recovered a bit since the last CapRaise Wallet slaughter

Wonder how much longer and higher before the next 'empty the pockets' exercise lands ?

Still an amused spectator watching this airframe wreck spluttering across the skies

Hopefully some of the loose debri doesn't make too much of a splash when it crashes
into a startled peacefully sleeping Robbo's soup bowl in front of him

[Sideshow Bob]

Update

My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?

Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.

Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.

Dassets, whats your take on the cargo numbers and what will happen going forward? Up 32% to $1b but 40% of their income is the Govt scheme which is going to taper off in the next 6-7 months.

Will AIr NZ lose out once other operators start back flying into NZ with more capacity??

[Recaster]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

[BlackPeter]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

Hmm.

It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.

It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?

Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.

I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:

1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?

2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?

I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.

Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.

[biker]

Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-airnzx-aizasx

It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.

But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.

Cheers.

“ Buy when there’s blood in the streets “

Most of us here on this forum are in the business of looking for opportunities to increase our wealth by way of the share market.

Like it or loathe it as a company, the AIR share price has always been cyclical.

If you had bought AIR when everything looked hopeless, and the share price was at a low ebb ( not necessarily it’s low) and sold when it had recovered significantly, (not necessarily at its high) there was money to be made. I have done this and it has been profitable.

It has however required time and patience, and as stated, reasonable timing.

I have started that process again recently.

DISC: I hold quite a few so I’m biased, I am not risk averse, and this is not advice.

[Recaster]

Hmm.

It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.

It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?

Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.

I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:

1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?

2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?

I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.

Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.

Thanks for your very constructive reply. Great points, well made and appreciated.

I apologise that I went over the top on this company. It was unprofessional. You're right, it's very emotional.

As regards the two important questions you raise on 2) I think the surprise will be on the downside. Don't think travel will recover quickly if ever to the pre-Covid levels and 1) is dependent on 2) and don't think there's the capital in the company to endure a soft ramp-up.

Thanks again.

(Don't like to be pedantic but it's advice not advise).

[Dassets]

Dassets, whats your take on the cargo numbers and what will happen going forward? Up 32% to $1b but 40% of their income is the Govt scheme which is going to taper off in the next 6-7 months.

Will AIr NZ lose out once other operators start back flying into NZ with more capacity??

That is a hard one. I think looking at the pax numbers and Auckland Airports that we will struggle to get a full recovery so we may not see the same operators and schedules. Long haul, and we are long, is problematic for some people. Carbon cost of flights is becoming a thing that drives where (some) people go. I think that european to NZ/Aust tradition could be paired back with maybe Aussi surviving with an Asian add on.

The freight is really interesting. It is pretty obvious we have a big issue in terms of vulnerability of key trade to transport disruption. On seafreight we appear to be losing schedule. For airfreight I believe the system we had has been shown to be flawed. Maybe AIRNZ/Govt has to think about a dedicated freight operation ie freight planes with a Pacific mandate focused on Aust/China/Japan. I mean what if Taiwan kicks off, we lose our belly space on pax aircraft for how long through Asia? Or SARS or or etc. And while we are at it maybe we need sea vessels that we can influence, hey Crazee Robo's Container-2-u Services. We need to bring in 8 ship loads of bitumen a year to put on our roads since Marsden Point no longer produces ir(as a by-product). What happens if we don't? We have big problem. Liquid fuels transport, critical to the economy so why don't we harden(protect) that capability. We actually have to, imo, secure our lines of communication(army slang for logistics routes) with the current state of affairs and the time to build ships. I welcome comment on those bombshells!!

[iceman]

Thanks for your very constructive reply. Great points, well made and appreciated.

I apologise that I went over the top on this company. It was unprofessional. You're right, it's very emotional.

As regards the two important questions you raise on 2) I think the surprise will be on the downside. Don't think travel will recover quickly if ever to the pre-Covid levels and 1) is dependent on 2) and don't think there's the capital in the company to endure a soft ramp-up.

Thanks again.

(Don't like to be pedantic but it's advice not advise).

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

[SCOTTY]

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

Thanks Iceman and Recaster. Sadly you are both absolutely spot on with your observations.

[Recaster]

Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.

I was mainly referring to AIR and the asia-pacific. Don't know much about Europe.

An article today might be of interest:

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/09/04/t...tcPGXmnS3uuBVU

At present I'm in Asia and in the country I'm in things are pretty dire. Many are having trouble meeting costs of day-to-day living. Violence on the rise.

Another issue is climate change. That's been explored ad infinitum.

As regards AIR demand is strong for a while. It's hard to ramp up supply. The demand is a balloon I think. Will fall later. AIR cancelling flights for various reasons.

Domestically the middle and lower classes are caught in an inflationary squeeze. Much travel is discretionary.

Some people are doing business differently without travelling to meet.

I believe the true horror of what the pharmaceutical and medical people have done to the general public with the Covid vaccines is slowly emerging. Ergo significant illness coming (only an opinion mind you).

Lastly, something odd is happening with energy. Just a feeling which followed Macron's recent comments on the 'end of abundance' made recently.