AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Bollinger bands squeezing up so what's it to be up or down? Up would be my choice

We're on the same page with this one mate

[KiwiGekko]

Virgin announced today it is passing on some fuel savings (on some routes) from tomorrow: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11390278 - will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[KiwiGekko]

Operating stats for December are out - no real surprises there. The US airlines had a decent SP jump overnight off the back of some positive earnings news (different market but still reassuring). Weather forecast for long weekend looks nice.

All looking positive to me.

[Beagle]

Yep, looks good to me too. Yield improvement is nice against the backdrop of very low oil prices. Approx. one month to go to Feb Operating stat's, very strong half year profit announcement and a major FY15 earnings outlook upgrade which should all happen contemporaneously in late February. Last chance to board this airbus at a reasonable price

[Beagle]

You'll be alright with this one mate. Expect major broker upgrades in late February after the first half announcement, (if not before). PAX and yield growth is solid and oil in the toilet = happy shareholders.

[modandm]

Not much of interest in the December stats i'm afraid. Results are going to be very dull, but the outlook will be super-bright. I am interested to see if they will delay retirement of the 767 fleet.

January operating stats will show a big jump as the Singapore route kicks off so more to see then.

Even full year won't be such big news this year, because of the hedging losses and VAH losses.

Next year is the big party though - EPS should step up to between 40c and 50c from 30c this year. The sell-side analysts still have consensus next year at 30c... wrong again. $4.00 18 month price target - 70%+ total return.

-mod

[freddagg]

Thanks Mod, as always your thoughts are hugely appreciated.

[Beagle]

Not much of interest in the December stats i'm afraid. Results are going to be very dull, but the outlook will be super-bright. I am interested to see if they will delay retirement of the 767 fleet.

January operating stats will show a big jump as the Singapore route kicks off so more to see then.

Even full year won't be such big news this year, because of the hedging losses and VAH losses.

Next year is the big party though - EPS should step up to between 40c and 50c from 30c this year. The sell-side analysts still have consensus next year at 30c... wrong again. $4.00 18 month price target - 70%+ total return.

-mod

VAH have indicated they're profitable in Q2...hard to see how they wouldn't be in Q3 and Q4 with oil where it is so although there's losses in Q1 that's only one quarter so I am more than a little surprised you're so sure the year overall will be a loss. Also we will see a lot of route and fleet rationalisation with the takeover of Tiger to be completed shortly. I guess there will be a fair amount of extraordinary items regarding rationalisation of plane leases and so on with Tiger and some in VAH itself so depending on whether people want to take this sort of thing above or below the net profit line...but as demonstrated with QAN the market is prepared to look past one off extraordinary items provided they can show quantifiable operational gains going forward.

Yes hedging losses...like 99% of the rest of the world's airlines but mitigated by some gains through exercise of put options and more specifically the fact that only circa 50% second half fuel is hedged and not all of first half either. One of the brokers are more optimistic than you with 31 cps this year which will undoubtedly be upgraded shortly. I agree with your EPS prognosis for the 2016 year..good we agree on something Also there was $45m in one-off's last year regarding heavy engineering redundancies and fleet rationalisation, (taken as an above the line charge), that won't repeat this year. Super low long term interest rates for the foreseeable future will also see many brokers re-working their DCF models. Oh yes indeed the outlook is super bright !!!!!, that's another thing we agree on

[Beagle]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102370540
http://australianaviation.com.au/201...erall-pricing/

Interesting move by Qantas. I tend to agree that airfares are very cheap, in fact extraordinarily cheap in real inflation adjusted terms to what they were five years ago, ten years ago, in fact choose whatever time frame of reference you like. Good on Qantas for sticking to their guns and putting a decent return on capital invested first and foremost, sets a good precedent for AIR.

[winner69]

A bubble forming in airline stocks I fear .....outrageous profits before another collapse

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...28-12zr24.html