AIR - Air NZ.

[Viking]

I think though the basic business structure maybe healthy~ but proves that the industry is very volatile~ and airlines these days quite vulnerable to the environment changes...

[scamper]

I see AIR has been sliding for the last three months.
announcements in the last month have included the impending puchase of four 777s, ~7% increases for the period, and the charter revenue.
could this week's slump be ethics driven, with some investors selling in protest over the charters of aussie soldiers to kuwait. To me Air's moves sound like clever grabbing of money-making opportunities.
i guess the prospect of domestic competition my be chilling to some, but let's face it, that has happened before, and when the dust has settled, Air's still flying.
sold half my holding last week, but will be watching to buy back in. Scamper.

[Placebo]

Probably more to do with the report in today's Dom-Post (and on www.stuff.co.nz) about looming competition domestically. Story tips Pacific Blue (a Branson creation) to start flying within NZ, followed potentially by Jetstar with Tiger Air (Singapore air offshoot) another possible starter.

My comment: I find it hard to believe that there are 3 possible players looking at NZ domestic market. AIR has seen off all comers -- Ansett, Qantas and Origin Pacific, should there really be worries about any others.

I guess any competition will erode their market share, hence the price drop.

[biker]

I see AIR has been sliding for the last three months....
......i guess the prospect of domestic competition my be chilling to some, but let's face it, that has happened before, and when the dust has settled, Air's still flying.

Scamper.

May still be flying but domestic is Air New Zealand's main, number one, primary, substantial, consistent profit centre. Domestic competition wont put them out of business but they will inevitably loose traffic and will be unable to increase yield to compensate. Virgin are cunning operators and even more cunning marketers. It has been a golden period for AIR domestic over the last 12 months but the market knowns things are about to change.

[Phaedrus]

Todays 9% plunge is merely the continuation of a pre-existing downtrend. Technically, the writing has been on the wall for AIR since June, when most of the various indicators plotted here triggered simultaneous Sell signals. This chart is unusual, in that the trendline break was the last indicator to fire. Most commonly it is one of the first to be triggered, generally just after the OBV.

The chart shows how a trailing stop based on the Average True Range is slightly superior to one based on a simple percentage fall.

Current holders of this stock must be totally oblivious to the use of basic technical indicators. The OBV sell signal could hardly have been more obvious, quite apart from the confirmation provided by other indicators.

[ratkin]

Current holders of this stock must be totally oblivious to the use of basic technical indicators. The OBV sell signal could hardly have been more obvious, quite apart from the confirmation provided by other indicators

They must of also been oblivious to the inevitable entry of cut price competitors.
I dont know much about this company as i dont invest in airlines , but what caused the price to rise so much earlier this year?

[ratkin]

Yes, up ,up and away ................this stock isn't popular on this forum , but I dare say some of the detractors here may be kicking themselves now.

What a difference three months makes

[Jay]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...t=1088&page=15

I hope that the above should take you to the existing thread scamper

[trackers]

Rob Fyfe is quick off the mark today:

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_ann...pany?id=152463
Air New Zealand Limited (NS)
AIR


22 Aug, 2007, 15:04
MONTHLYAir NZ Investor Update Issue 36 (Jul-07 Operating Stats)

CONTENTS

- July market conditions
- New aircraft deliveries
- Annual results announcements
- Company announcements

JULY MARKET CONDITIONS

July trading was strong, with 6.7% growth in passenger numbers across the Group compared to the same month in 2006.

Within this, our long-haul operations experienced significantly higher activity than in July 2006, carrying 154,000 customers (10.8% more than July 2006). Total Revenue Passenger Kilometres were 1.4 billion, an increase of 11.4% year on year.

Passenger load factor was 82.2% across the Group, an improvement of 6.2 percentage points compared to the same month last year.

Load improvements were equally pleasing in short-haul and long-haul, with improvements of 6.9% and 5.4% respectively. Short-haul load factor improvement against last year continues to reflect the rationalisation of the Tasman / Pacific Islands schedule. Stronger loads for our long-haul operation were predominantly driven by Asian routes, including Hong Kong and Shanghai.

July 2007 group-wide yields were 0.2% higher when compared with the previous period. Short-haul yields were up 3.0% on July 2006, while long-haul yields were 1.0% lower.

A summary of load factors for the month of July follows:
-Short-haul passenger load factor increased 6.9 percentage points to 78.4% when compared to July 2006.
-Domestic passenger load factor was up 2.6 percentage points to 76.3%
-Tasman / PI passenger load factor was up 8.9 percentage points to 79.5%
-Long-haul passenger load factor was up 5.4 percentage points to 85.0% when compared to July 2006.
-Asia / UK passenger load factor increased by 9.0 percentage points to 81.9%
-North America passenger load factor increased 4.4 percentage points to 87.2%

[AMR]

Could the slump be due to Helen Clark's bashing of Air New Zealand over the chartering? Perhaps investors are pricing in further losses due to the prospect of more government involvement in the company.