AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the link mate, good bit of dry humour for the day. The militancy of Australian unions is legendary to say the least. What a bloody gall they have. The company posted a $2.8 billion dollar loss last year for goodness sake. One year's more loss like that and it would wipe out the entire equity of the company !!!! As soon as there's a modest profit they put their hand out. What part of being reasonable don't they understand ? It would appear they've learned nothing from their colleagues in way the AMWU have bankrupted Ford and Holden into imminently shutting down.

Interestingly as an aside I crunched the numbers a while back and found the average worker at AIR N.Z. makes $104,000...not too shabby is it !!...any wonder they're an employer of first choice for so many people Classic case of all stakeholders benefiting from this IMHO. Now all we have to fix is those 17.8 inch width seats on the new Dreamliners and all will be well in the AIR world...or is this a cunning plan to encourage larger people to lose weight thereby doing their best for people's wellbeing... it seems to be working for me lol

[IAK]

Good article from Brian Gaynor on Air NZ and the SOE gentailers. "Stellar outcome for Government-controlled firms a notable exception"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11409400

[Beagle]

Market seems content to price AIR on the basis that the oil price tailwind will persist for current year and maybe some of next year and who knows for the 2017, 2018 and 2019 years ? Market seems to think you can't put a value on those potential oil price tailwinds for future years but what if oil prices around $70 are the new normal ?
Current futures price for oil Dec 2018 at $68, (mid point of AIR's 2019 financial year) are pricing in big tailwinds for the foreseeable future !!
Implications for the potential for SP upside appear to be very good but to be honest its anyone's guess how sticky these lower oil prices will be.
http://www2.barchart.com/charts/futures/CLZ18

[brend]

Market seems content to price AIR on the basis that the oil price tailwind will persist for current year and maybe some of next year and who knows for the 2017, 2018 and 2019 years ? Market seems to think you can't put a value on those potential oil price tailwinds for future years but what if oil prices around $70 are the new normal ?
Current futures price for oil Dec 2018 at $68, (mid point of AIR's 2019 financial year) are pricing in big tailwinds for the foreseeable future !!
Implications for the potential for SP upside appear to be very good but to be honest its anyone's guess how sticky these lower oil prices will be.
http://www2.barchart.com/charts/futures/CLZ18

in otherwords still alot of potential for + in the SP

[Zaphod]

There are some interesting comments in the article below about UA looking at establishing an SFO-AKL sector and AA looking at the LAX-AKL sector (as unlikely as either might be), along with some other interesting tidbits.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ic-competition

[Beagle]

Yep sure is mate but no matter, (within reason) where oil goes Air are well positioned with a very young and fuel efficient fleet.
They are very pleased with all the operational aspects of the new generation Dreamliners and they're getting fantastic customer feedback on them so accordingly I'd expect they'll exercise all their remaining options in due course leading to a fleet of 18 of these fancy new aircraft !!
We're "very well positioned"...do I need to pay Percy a royalty for using that expression

[brend]

Yep sure is mate but no matter, (within reason)

would you continue to accumulate today?

[Beagle]

Mate I'm maxed out at my self imposed 20% portfolio allocation limit so won't be buying more but I am very happy to hold at full allocation level.
Shares are ex the 6.5 cent fully imputed divvy Wednesday next week and its paid shortly thereafter, (IIRC on the 20th March).
People are really paying $2.825 ex divvy buying today at $2.89.

I see fair / good value based on all known information at this time, (inclusive of VAH's prospects improving as evidenced by their SP appreciation to circa 50 cents) at $3.40 - $3.50.
Considerable upside exists from this value if oil settles somewhere around $70 on a protracted basis and VAH really gets cranking along....but can't put a value on those aspects at this stage.

P.S. Consensus EPS for 2016 now up to 40 cps, not sure if all brokers have upgraded yet, will check back next week.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/revisions/

[nzspeak]

I haven't been in this forum long enough to see a lot of the highly recommended stocks turn to custard (I’m assuming on probabilities this has happens half the time (perhaps not in this bull market however) But the two biggest stocks I’ve seen championed over the last year (as far as I’ve noticed) have been Air New Zealand and Heartland and they’ve both been gold. I’ve never invested in Heartland because I’m worried about a NZ banking collapse (Ireland etc small chance I know) but I’ve invested significantly in Air New Zealand. In spite of Roger’s rando Ebola rant, I would just like to thank him for making a lot of us here a lot of money by championing those two stocks. I think the stock picking competition shows a lot of his influence.

[Beagle]

You're most welcome mate. HNZ and AIR, my two biggest positions, still solid value at current prices (notwithstanding recent strong SP performance).