AIR - Air NZ.

[Phaedrus]

I see you've changed from linear to log price. How come?

We have the choice of using a Linear trendline currently sitting at $1.15 or a Log trendline currently sitting at $1.19 - an insignificant difference in my opinion. There is, however, another consideration. I'm sure I don't need to tell you that the more times a trendline has been tested, the more confidence it inspires and the more significant its penetration.

Which trendline would you recommend we use here - the Linear or the Log?

[Lizard]

mosteph, think you are having a confusion...
Sir P. has always recommended log scales -- trendlines are not useful otherwise.

Scamper, I think MoSteph is referring to the previous chart with linear scale that Phaedrus used when they were discussing the break in July (as per green line no. 3) a couple of pages back.

[Jaa]

Bought some AIR shares @ 1.08 today. Final trigger for me was the large increase in US airline stocks overnight (10-20%).

I am a FA investor due to lack of knowledge about TA more than anything. Phaedrus, thanks to you and the charts above I am slowly beginning to learn what TA wise to look for, which is a start.

The thing that impresses me most about Air NZ is the constant route optimisation they do to maximise profits. This was a lesson the airline learned well from the Ansett debacle where rumour has it they literally had no idea which routes were making and losing money.

Both the systems they now have in place and some nimble management seem to allow the airline to change gears very quickly to changing circumstances. Witness the constant chopping and changing on the Tasman route and the recent use of smaller 777s in place of 747s on the London route.

[h2so4]

If you must invest in an airline, IMO, AIZ is the best out of AIZ, QAN,and VBA. At a pinch they could pay off their long term debt with 4 years of earnings, mind you liabilities are catching up to their assets and return on invested capital? About 8.3% FY08. If Cap/Ex are increased to the average, the return on investment falls to 6.18%.and 5 years of earnings will be needed to knock off the long term debt.What are bank deposit rates in NZ?

I note the Cap/Ex were a lot less than the Depreciation. GM in the US had a similar situation where depreciation exceeded Cap/Ex.for a number of years. hmmmm
cheers

[Dr_Who]

How low will AIRNZ go? Sp just hit $1.00!!!

Anyone out there brave enough to dip their toes? SKol where are you?

[Scuffer]

They are gettin' cheap but airlines are notoriously volatile stock I bought about 3 years ago at $1.45 and then topped up at $1.10 got out at $1.70 something, not been game to get back in since but they are looking tempting.

[Dr_Who]

96 cents... game over!

[biker]

96 cents... game over!

95 cents actually and holding $1 a share in cash, POO heading down, innovative
pro-active management. At last........game on!

[winner69]

95 cents actually and holding $1 a share in cash, POO heading down, innovative
pro-active management. At last........game on!

But what makes up most of that $1 share in cash .... prepaid fares ..... promises to fly people somewhere .... so it is not really company/shareholders cash is it

Remember a few years ago that AIR CEO from Aussie raving about the $1 billion in cash ..... broke a few months later I recall

[Dr_Who]

I dont think zombies can afford to fly away on holiday these days. Airlines and luxury goods will go first. Will AIR survive?