AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

I LOVE to punt too mate but I find that if I take anything bigger than a 10% portfolio position in any one stock I start to worry too much so I've had to accept that a more balanced and diversified investment approach suits me better.

We're all different in our makeup mate, most of my stocks are under 10% except a few like Air / Diligent , and Spark which is my biggest holding at around 30% and at one point Sum made up 50% although I did get a bit nervous when I averaged down on Xro and it made up 15%, of my total

[Beagle]

We're all different in our makeup mate, most of my stocks are under 10% except a few like Air / Diligent , and Spark which is my biggest holding at around 30% and at one point Sum made up 50% although I did get a bit nervous when I averaged down on Xro and it made up 15%, of my total

You've been on Ashley Maddison with Norah at one stage haven't you Sorry mate, couldn't resist At one stage I had over 20% in AIR but I used to fret too much...life's too short..it wasn't good for my blood pressure.

[couta1]

You've been on Ashley Maddison with Norah at one stage haven't you Sorry mate, couldn't resist At one stage I had over 20% in AIR but I used to fret too much...life's too short..it wasn't good for my blood pressure.

Mums the word on Norah, yeah Air is a bit riskier than others to be overweight in with a bird falling turning everything to custard in short order. Wonder where Mod is these days ? he was extremely overweight in Air if I recall.

[Beagle]

Nobody's heard a peep from Mod for ages on any thread. I speculate he sold the lot when it tipped over $3.00 for a day or so a while back. The stock was in the 290's and Mod gave it a huge ramp and then he was gone... I think if he was here he'd be cautioning us on the lower $Kiwi currency impacting AIR's future overseas based opex and capex and then I'd be debating with him that its immaterial as half AIR's sales are to overseas punters in overseas currency.

[couta1]

Nobody's heard a peep from Mod for ages on any thread. I speculate he sold the lot when it tipped over $3.00 for a day or so a while back.

June 2nd was his last visit(Not post) so as you say possibly flew out of the Air coop a while back. PS- I think I've inherited his bar tab as I'm thinking of putting the icing on the cake by loading up just a few more on Monday.

[Beagle]

I think its prudent to be cautious in this market mate. From a global economic perspective, it appears we live in interesting times.

[Jay]

I thought Mod did literally fly away somewhere, thought I remember reading that on a thread (probably this one) sometime back.

[modandm]

Hi everyone.

I'm not around much, and given my new responsibilities at work I feel posting in these forums regularly has become inappropriate.

I haven't sold a single share, and am pleased with the way AIR is going.

While the strength of this years result is well expected, I expect stronger revenue growth than consensus for FY16 (less PRASM decline (loads/yields)). Partly because FX is now supporting yields - see the July stats. Although NZD weakness is a medium term negative for costs, the company have good hedging in place for the next 12 months. On top of this the oil price continues to weaken, and Virgin is set to improve next year. Lastly AIR has cost saving programs which should show a contribution next year.

In summary, consensus expects c.40c EPS next year, falling back to 30ish in FY17. I think c.50c is possible, falling to c.40c. There is no reason AIR can't sustainably earn 30-40cps into the medium term. Conditional on demand/fx/fuel (the usual). On top of this I feel the strength of balance sheet/competitive position/fleet/stake in VAH worth 40cps etc is not reflected in the share price.

I still think the company is worth $4.00 per share today, maybe $3.50 after a big special dividend in September 2016. Until then I we should continue to pick up nice divi's, on the way.

[IAK]

Great to hear from you Mod, always appreciate your contributions.

[Hoop]

I got asked about AIR's soon to be released report and problem to see signals on the charts...

I'm a little reluctant to post a chart on this AIR thread my recent sell signals off the $3 late May (a reason I started posting again) and the controversial September 2014 sell signals received some flack from the Fundies

This time the Chart shows no bad news....no great news either. The reason I got asked for my charting opinion was because AIR TA indicators didn't seem to be saying much and some were conflicting...
When a share price is trendless many indicators become less reliable and often TAers revert to oscillators to help out,,,,however AIR has presented a problem there too as the oscillators are showing neutral and aren't much help either..

We know the report will be positive but we don't know about the share price (is it factored in already?)..Well the Bollinger Bands are squeezed which indicates the answer is no, it's not factored in...
The good news is the investors are slowly accumulating (OBV rising). AIR is one of the few companies in the NZX50 that are still ahead of their primary uptrends and EMA200..

If the H&S pattern has failed then the very good news, is the gap territory around the 278 280 could come into play...area which could see a price accelerate back and reestablish itself into the middle of its old trading pattern range (2.70/3.00)

The not so good news is the sloping H&S pattern neck break..H&S patterns are reliable patterns, however the better news is that this is a shallow pattern and the target bottom is 2.50...Its broken its Primary trendline but thats not a biggee unless it falls further

I must admit I was surprised by the TA neutrality so close to its Wed 26th August FY announcement ...

Disc: hold no AIR