AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Hey Hoop...when all else fails you need to revert to fundamental analysis. At $2.70 its trading on 6.59 times consensus FY16 earnings of 41 cps...super expensive eh

Nice to hear from you Mod....nothing to stopping you posting after hours. I think many people miss the vigorous debates you and I used to have.

[Hoop]

Hey Hoop...when all else fails you need to revert to fundamental analysis. At $2.70 its trading on 6.59 times consensus FY16 earnings of 41 cps...super expensive eh

Roger..This is probably not a good day to repost my chart illustration this being a black Monday and all that..but my repost shows how fundamental analysis failed for AIR back during the recession 2000 -2002..Air is a cyclical stock and cyclical stocks are risky beasts especially during weak economic times..I posted all this on the AIR thread on the 8th of May but my post has mysteriously disappeared which is very strange...

The chart illustration shows the share price and reports with brokers forecasts...notice how "cheap" the shares were with that excellent year 2000 result (profit up 54% but didn't beat brokers forecasts) and 2001 was forecast to be a huge year and yet TA sell signals appeared before the result and the downtrend continued for a year until capitulation..

The point I'm trying to make here is that results are historic by the time of release and the market which TA monitors is the "now" and forward looking....Prolonged downtrends or lack of price momentum during periods of good results and high future expections should be viewed as a caution especially with cyclical stocks.

[Beagle]

Fair enough Hoop but its perhaps worth noting there were specific concerns surrounding AIR at that time 2000/2001 in respect of its major investment in Ansett Australia. I think a more relevant period of time is the GFC when general consumer confidence was very weak.

My one concern regarding AIR is in regard to consumer demand. I note last week the latest consumer confidence survey came out and was at a 3 year low but interestingly in the second paragraph they talk about the "futures conditions index" being at a 6 1/2 year low. This index measures consumers perceptions of future economic conditions and is at its lowest level since the GFC. Probably not the most optimum time for AIR to be planning a 6% capacity expansion this year on top of last years 6% capacity expansion...I expect the marketing teams talent for creative demand stimulation will get a good workout this year.

To date the "Briscoes" a sale almost every week, or sometimes twice a week strategy seems to be paying off...I guess the risk is consumer "sale fatigue".
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...3-year-lowhtml

[sb9]

Thought AIR held quite well today considering the carnage across leader board, must be in anticipation of results prospects!!!

[vin]

Thought AIR held quite well today considering the carnage across leader board, must be in anticipation of results prospects!!!

Agreed, was just another day for AIR really. No movement that was out of the ordinary. Bring on results _b

[Beagle]

Held up surprisingly well considering the haircut some of its peers got.

[vin]

Tomorrow's results will be interesting.. Hanging out for it!

[Hoop]

I must admit I was surprised by the TA neutrality so close to its Wed 26th August FY announcement ...

Disc: hold no AIR

Thought AIR held quite well today considering the carnage across leader board, must be in anticipation of results prospects!!!

Agreed, was just another day for AIR really. No movement that was out of the ordinary. Bring on results _b

Today AIR has succumbed to the panic 255 -12 -4.5%...It has gone from a month of being blah (no reliable signals..neutral) close to its reporting date (tommorrow)... to triggering some more sell signals today...

One can blame the irrational Global crash and would probably hold on... but TA discipline blames no body or anything, just act on signals..

[tim23]

What sell signs every stock had that earlier today!

[couta1]

What sell signs every stock had that earlier today!

Exactly will probably hit $2.90-$3 within a fortnight I reckon so why sell? Disc-Bought more on open