AIR - Air NZ.

[Hoop]

Touching 2.50. Where to from here?

Getting close to the sloping H&S pattern break target area (~245)....so for me AIR goes onto my watchlist

[Beagle]

Fair enough Roger I used to be a long term FA investor (1973 - 1998).. I know where you are coming from, as I have a FA core too...That also means I enjoy your excellent posts.

When investment disciplines diverge its always pays to be aware of it happening. Its more tools for your decision making...As Winner wrote ...Technical Analysis with Fundamental Analysis along with a bit of Visualisation is the way to go...
I agree but would be careful about the visualisation bit though..sometimes they are mirages

Absolutely I definitely feel more comfortable when FA and TA are both in harmony with each other and pointing in the same direction. Visualisation is bloody difficult in this market but I must say the CEO and CFO sounded extremely confident on the call about how FY16 will play out. I always appreciate your input mate.

I'm not going to speculate ddrone on the short term price direction. As Hoop mentioned the technicals look weak at this time but the fundamentals are extremely compelling. Its perplexing but I won't lose any sleep over it as I'm still happy to sit on just under a 10% portfolio position and bide my time too pounce if the price gets too stupid.

[winner69]

Analysts seem to be bit downbeat on AIR
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...n-strategyhtml

Mention no special dividend has upset some.

[winner69]

One thing Mo said was the higher AIRs profit the lower the PE goes. Valued by the market on a over the cycle basis or something like that.

If mo is right and analysts are right about super profits in 2016 we probably will still see a shareprice under 3 bucks this time next year. How much under is the unknown

[Yoda]

Yeah and I followed his advice and sold my AIR at the height of the Ebola scare at under $1.80 and it cost me nearly 20 cents more to get back in. For the record Hoop, I do value your input and put a good value on TA but my core I am a FA guy so will always buy exceptional value when I see it.

I really don't care if it goes lower. Happy to buy into any further significant weakness.

Im interested to note that some people just seem to have spare cash to just "buy some more" when the price is right .
is it part of your strategy to sell some other stock when high and keep some cash reserves at all times ... 10 % .?

[Beagle]

Analysts seem to be bit downbeat on AIR
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...n-strategyhtml

Mention no special dividend has upset some.

I listened to all those analysts questions and AIR's answers during the conference call. AIR more upbeat than the analysts are recognising. I reckon some of them are off-beam picking a big slide in profit in FY18. Lets get real here, not a single one those analysts can predict with any degree of reliability at this stage what the profit will be in FY17 let alone FY18.

I picked up on an undertone of slight frustration CL has with analysts insistence this is a cyclical stock. Bottom line in my opinion is this company is running like a well oiled Swiss watch, FY16 consensus EPS is now up to 44 cps, (previously 41 cents) which puts AIR on a FY16 PE of 5.7 !! (against a historical 10 year average of 10).
Cash flow last year was nearly $1 per share ! Consensus fair value, (after broker revisions), is now $2.91.

Yoda, when stocks reach compelling price points I make it my business to ensure I'm liquid.

[couta1]

Well i'm fully loaded now after topping up big time at $2.53( Fell a few cents more but that's life) My average is now $2.57 for over 180k shares (I won't say what percentage of my portfolio that is as it may frighten some even Roger) IMHO the current price is completely irrational and has come about through a mix of things like plain fear/the shepple effect/stop losses being hit etc etc ,will become oversold soon ( If not already) so expecting a bounce and of course there's that nice fully imputed divvy which is on a par with the Spark divvy. Anyway I reckon there's a lot of upside in this share, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Master98]

Well i'm fully loaded now after topping up big time at $2.53( Fell a few cents more but that's life) My average is now $2.57 for over 180k shares (I won't say what percentage of my portfolio that is as it may frighten some even Roger) IMHO the current price is completely irrational and has come about through a mix of things like plain fear/the shepple effect/stop losses being hit etc etc ,will become oversold soon ( If not already) so expecting a bounce and of course there's that nice fully imputed divvy which is on a par with the Spark divvy. Anyway I reckon there's a lot of upside in this share, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

lol, hopefully you didn't sell SPK to fund AIR

[couta1]

lol, hopefully you didn't sell SPK to fund AIR

Why settle for one divvy when you can grab two if you play your cards right, got heaps of Air still Master?

[Master98]

Why settle for one divvy when you can grab two if you play your cards right, got heaps of Air still Master?

was 50k shares SPK at 3.1, then bought another 50k shares SPK at 2.7 in the dip, sold AIR on the announcement day at 2.7 as the results not surprised me.