AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Its had a good solid 14% uplift since the guidance provided at the ASM. I am not surprised to see some consolidation at these level's before the next push higher. Good volumes suggest the naysayers are taking the opportunity to exit and take some profit while the true believers settle in for the long haul benefits

[Joshuatree]

I bought my first AIR shares today. A bit of a base formed re $2.40. Since the announcement @ 2pm buy vol has increased and s.p now $2.43 and rising

Just to clear up some misinformation posted on my holding or not,i bought on 18th June after ignoring all the Hubris up to $2.90. Felt the price was a good margin of safety although the s/p almost got back there again

[Beagle]

Not really overbought Couta1. Last time they told the annual meeting profit would double (2012 annual meeting) it roared up 20% in no time.
Winner you need plenty of patience my friend, remember we're in this for the long haul. Any minor weakness would be a great opportunity to top up even further

[Joshuatree]

Chart is looking pretty good .
Hubris means Arrogance, conceit ,haughtyness, vanity. self importance , self conceit, pomposity, feeling of superiority.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11532277

Underscores some of my core investment theme's with AIR.

1. Air travel is incredibly cheap in real terms e.g. it cost my mother $2,000 to fly to the U.K. 23 years ago and you can fly there now on a qulaity airline like AIR for the same price on special now ! How many other products or services can you think of that haven't gone up in 23 years ?

2. AIR N.Z. are well positioned with a modern fuel efficient fleet and are positioned better than most when oil goes back up.

3. 60,000 new migrants last year, (highest ever), all wanting to see the country, fly back to their native homeland and have their friends and extended family come visit

4. Baby boomer generation have significantly more time and money on their hands now that the kids have left home.

5. Many younger generation people have simply given up on trying to save for their own home, (last census threw interesting light on the low proportion of people under 40 who own their own home) and are simply spending the money now, often on travel.

[Biscuit]

That article, not that inspiring:

"During the past five years there had been "tremendous growth" around the world. "We've seen 6 per cent passenger growth in terms of revenue passenger miles, which is above the trend of the last 30-40 years [where] we've seen 5 per cent growth per year, and we project about 5 per cent going forward,"

So, same growth going forward as over the past 40 years?

[Longhaul]

"During the past five years there had been "tremendous growth" around the world. "We've seen 6 per cent passenger growth in terms of revenue passenger miles, which is above the trend of the last 30-40 years [where] we've seen 5 per cent growth per year, and we project about 5 per cent going forward,"

So, same growth going forward as over the past 40 years?

Yeah but that's a compounding growth rate so to maintain 5% is pretty good isn't it?

[Biscuit]

and then:

" ... in the past five years airline profits had been around US$59 billion ($87 billion), with over half of that in the last year. This compared to no accumulated profits at all from across the entire commercial aviation sector for close to a century of flying... in the past year airlines had saved about US$40 billion in fuel costs.

a hundred years of no overall profit!

[Biscuit]

Yeah but that's a compounding growth rate so to maintain 5% is pretty good isn't it?

Just saying, the article didn't inspire me to look more favorably at airlines. Still hold AIR though.

[Beagle]

I believe the article is saying they have seen tremendous growth in the last five years and we expect that to continue.

In recent years we have seen a dramatic consolidation in U.S.A. carriers, (you may find this interesting http://students.com.miami.edu/netrep.../?page_id=1593 ), and there does seem to be a determination to make profits going forward come what may with the oil prices. you see this in all the extra charges airlines are levying passengers for now. If oil goes back up expect fuel surcharges to become rampant and recover most if not all the extra costs.

Airline sector is notorious for intense competition and that's why AIR s priced where it is on an extremely low PE. If we see any other future scenario play out then there's heaps of upside but brokers are all suggesting oil will ramp quickly back up and intense extra competition over and above what we already know exists is imminent too. What if they're wrong