AIR - Air NZ.

[Hoop]

More than 50% of AIR's sales are in N.Z. dollars to Kiwi's...and general tourism to N.Z. is growing at 9% per annum...big growth from Australia despite the economic slump there, go figure ?. Could it be that people are simply travelling more now days and unless there's another major GFC, that will continue ? I respect your decision mate as you're primary belief is in technical analysis but I on the other hand will always at my core be a person who invests based on the fundamentals but am well aware that TA can also be a useful tool too. I hope you find something of value to invest in because having cash on call isn't very rewarding.

Cash is king Roger...
It was a toss up whether to take my opportunity with Pushpay or AIR ..Years of experience has told me to stay out of cyclicals when the bull market becomes ancient...but I back the wrong horse and bought AIR ..I got sucked in with the AIR hype...Should have listened to my own concerns and remembered Peter Lynch philosophy of keeping away from cyclicals when their PE gets too low..

Now Pushpay's price is another +16% higher and I only realised +4% with AIR ..Using TA Discipline a +4% per month is lousy underachievement...

Sour grapes by me Roger...Yes I'm afraid so..I'm in this Sharemarket business for a living...Sharemarket investing efficiency is a must for me... when you are cashed up you have huge potential to take very lucrative shorter term opportunities....I've just wasted a month fiddling around making 4% with AIR

[iceman]

"we're nowhere anywhere near any kind of top in the economic cycle" Really Roger?.. the business cycle in USA looks like its topped out...
Contrary to the media bull**** of the past.. USA (worlds biggest economic player) has had 6 years of business cycle boom...however the last 2 quarters has shown a slight earnings decline and there is recession talk surfacing..I guess that could be aimed at Janet and her wish to raise interest rates but you never know..
China (no2 economic player) was growing at well over 7% per year.. ..slowing but currently still strong at 6.7%

Hoop. There are other "cycles" around. I invested heavily in one country 2-4 years ago as my friends on ST know. SO far it has returned 228% on average in 3 years. And we ain't stopping. All I'm saying there are many ways to skin a cat.

[Hoop]

May well be cyclical , however the TREND is for increasing tourism which AIR NZ will win big on . The local market is bread and butter , inbound tourism the cream on top .
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...our-top-export

you forgot the competition trend is rising too...It becomes very expensive defending your local patch against those bigger than you

[Hoop]

Hoop. There are other "cycles" around. I invested heavily in one country 2-4 years ago as my friends on ST know. SO far it has returned 228% on average in 3 years. And we ain't stopping. All I'm saying there are many ways to skin a cat.

Many stocks are cyclicals..and they are all terrific performers during good economic times as we including you Iceman have enjoyed for many years now...Many of my best investments have been cyclicals initially bought during economic bad times...I can't recall ever having a great performing cyclical when bought during the height of boom times..I have been skinned though buying in at the boom time

The tricky part is that they are the worst performers in bad times and can suck away all your gains and more..they rise quick and fall just as quick...their cycles are characterised by large oscillations (volatile)..Unfortunately cyclicals suck the investor in as they still produce good forward fundamentals when they quickly drop and many investors fail to get out thinking that the price drop is unfounded..Hence Peter Lynch's warning to be cautious about cyclicals with very low PE values...

All I'm trying to do on ST at this moment Iceman and Roger is to generate a discussion (which hardly anyone does with this subject of dealing with cyclical behaviour) and to make people aware that Cyclicals are dangerous and so therefore be aware of cyclical behaviour and their warning signs ...This way I hope people can do their own research and learn to see those warning signs,..Most often those warning signs are seen by the lesser experienced investors as fundamental buy signals fueled by supposed "cheap valued" share.

[winner69]

If interested in economic cycles and share markets here are some good chars (US but concepts apply here as well)

http://www.aheadofthecurve-thebook.com/04-01.html


The book Ahead of the Curve is one of my bibles.

[winner69]

There be a BIG bounce pack tomorrow

How BIG will the bounce be I wonder

[Biscuit]

Many stocks are cyclicals..and they are all terrific performers during good economic times as we including you Iceman have enjoyed for many years now...Many of my best investments have been cyclicals initially bought during economic bad times...I can't recall ever having a great performing cyclical when bought during the height of boom times..I have been skinned though buying in at the boom time

The tricky part is that they are the worst performers in bad times and can suck away all your gains and more..they rise quick and fall just as quick...their cycles are characterised by large oscillations (volatile)..Unfortunately cyclicals suck the investor in as they still produce good forward fundamentals when they quickly drop and many investors fail to get out thinking that the price drop is unfounded..Hence Peter Lynch's warning to be cautious about cyclicals with very low PE values...

All I'm trying to do on ST at this moment Iceman and Roger is to generate a discussion (which hardly anyone does with this subject of dealing with cyclical behaviour) and to make people aware that Cyclicals are dangerous and so therefore be aware of cyclical behaviour and their warning signs ...This way I hope people can do their own research and learn to see those warning signs,..Most often those warning signs are seen by the lesser experienced investors as fundamental buy signals fueled by supposed "cheap valued" share.

Good discussion - so no golden age for AIR then? I think that AIR has both cyclical and non-cyclical components in its business - just to complicate things, probably more so than most airlines?

[Onion]

How BIG will the bounce be I wonder

No evidence of BIG BOUNCE bids lining up before opening.

If not you can always use http://www.awesomebounce.co.nz/. - "Bringing affordable Bouncy castle fun to everyone !! "

[skid]

Skid you really must take another holiday soon(Flying Air of course) You seem to be the thread roaming sad sack of late. The share price dropped in June upon the announcement that 4 Jetstar relics would fly on cherry picked regional routes. Any perceived threat to profits via competition will cause a share price to drop as nervous Nellie's sell out, of course Air is ramping up its routes as well with its modern fleet so this will offset any losses to a certain degree. PS-United is a partner with Air not another competitive threat.

They are usually a bit expensive for me,for SE Asia.but that may change(that would be great) We have flown them to Vancouver ,so maybe that will cover your request-(with more competition prices may drop)

Im not saying it will necessarily drop to 2.40 but just be prepared for the possibility.

Heres what they say in the article(did you even read it?)

When American Airlines said in June it would investigate direct flights to New Zealand Air New Zealand's share price took a hammering, although it has recovered since. Air NZ is also facing increased competition on its popular Vancouver route, with Air Canada announcing flights from the Canadian city to Brisbane.

You seem to be allergic to anything that questions anything other than high fiveing,but I commend the fact that you have at least stated some reasons for your statement(point taken on United) but your other statement at the least,doesnt tally with the article.(and IMO the article make more sense)---just healthy debate --dont get all worked up.

[iceman]

Good discussion - so no golden age for AIR then? I think that AIR has both cyclical and non-cyclical components in its business - just to complicate things, probably more so than most airlines?

Totally agree Biscuit. Great discussion and very informative posts from Hoop as always.