AIR - Air NZ.

[vin]

I've taken the opportunity to increase my holding in AIR with the weakness in price over recent days. To me, this stock has significant movements based on a couple of competitive announcements. Again, turbulence is part an parcel of the aviation game and thus we see a bit of a bumpy ride in the SP. I still have absolute faith in the fundamentals of this business given the investment in fleet, its people and innovation w.r.t new revenue channels. Given the information publicised at the recent AGM, AIR is in a very good position domestically and internationally which to me will translate into a record FY16 year. My pick is for the price to breach the $3 barrier at or around the half year results announcement, with a significnat uplift from FY15 expected and a likely special dividend due.

AIR has a smart strategy of not relying on any monopolistic route position in the modern world and thus I believe the drop in SP is completely overcooked. I don't think we will go as low as $2.40 any time soon - I personally agree with Roger that fair value is circa $3.50-3.75 for a top quality organisation with excellent leadership and a stellar recent track record.

I'm in this for the long haul, so to speak.

Yep well said, I'm with ya.

[Teeps]

Singapore Airlines has Scoot, Qantas has Jetstar so I wouldn't rule it out as a possibility. Maybe they could keep some of the old 767-300's they're retiring next year, (which would have basically been depreciated down to almost nothing in their books), and use them. Saw a couple of them land at the airport the other day. Amazing what a lick of new paint does to an old plane.

So a major announcement of a new route tomorrow morning and at least one more in 2016...sounds good to me

Don't think Freedom will rise from the ashes - Air NZ runs a low cost model on the tasman which includes seat only options and having to purchase movies/food etc either on board or buying 'the works' ticket types... Too many additional costs running a subsidiary in our part of the world. I like the mix of options depending on route distance (ie domestic, tasman, islands vs long haul all have different strategies). Given the survey I completed this morning, it looks as thought AIR are looking to invest in changes to the travelling experience on board to customise it and make it as pleasant as possible.... so i see a move towards the next iteration of 'service' when flying... watch this space.

Interesting developments over night with Singapore and Lufthansa announcing more cooperation between Singapore and Europe. http://www.straitstimes.com/singapor...ore-and-europe

Given AIR has a much closer bond to SQ these days, be interesting to see the flow on effects for AIR customers flying through Singapore for connections to Europe via codesharing agreements....

[skid]

Skid - AIR has updated the market that they expect profit to double this half since the last time they touched down to $2.40. In my view this advice was well ahead of the market consensus view and I think the fact that the SP went up strongly after that announcement at the annual meeting is supportive of my view.

I'm not saying it can't / won't go down to $2.40 again, but I am saying I think this is unlikely on the balance of probabilities based on current guidance, new routes and all the other things I've mentioned.

I have a lot of confidence in the management and directors and believe this is a very high calibre company...maybe that's why I don't get too concerned with short term price variations and am happy to be on board for the long haul.

Fair enough and a logical call--thats what im looking for -healthy debate--
I also believe the $499 LA was just a shot across the bow and there is no reason to give seats away until its necessary when AA comes to town--(then I wouldnt be surprised though) My guess is that each will respond to each other.
Is there really a reason to resurrect a low cost subsidiary/ They already have grabaseat.
Profit may well double this half as you mention--but the next half is really the issue now ,so while i think you are most likely right about the 2.40 I do not think it will breach $3 and will struggle to get back to where it was a few weeks ago--just my opinion

Could you please ask your fellow owners to give me a nice cheap price to SE Asia this next winter and my wife to Vancouver? --Thanx

[Beagle]

You signed up to the daily deals on Grabaseat skid ? They sometimes have some amazing deals on international destinations so you never know your luck BTW I agree with what you and others have said about Freedom, extremely unlikely. I'm not concerned with second half but have pulled my estimate back slightly based on lower average yields and lower $Kiwi.
I'm thinking $900m - $1,000m before tax and after positive contribution from Virgin for the full FY16 year is where its at.

[Biscuit]

Could you please ask your fellow owners to give me a nice cheap price to SE Asia this next winter and my wife to Vancouver? --Thanx

Done! Qantas to Vancouver $942 on 1st June. Where in SE Asia?

[skid]

You signed up to the daily deals on Grabaseat skid ? They sometimes have some amazing deals on international destinations so you never know your luck BTW I agree with what you and others have said about Freedom, extremely unlikely. I'm not concerned with second half but have pulled my estimate back slightly based on lower average yields and lower $Kiwi.
I'm thinking $900m - $1,000m before tax and after positive contribution from Virgin for the full FY16 year is where its at.

I am sighned up (mostly for Q town)but noticed a little spiel about Thailand on the web page --so checked it out--so far ,not competitive for me but you never know what the future holds

Teeps--I dont think Chicago makes sense --normally partner airlines take over on domestic routes(I belueve somone mentioned United)
For Canada -its Air Canada(which sucks as they dont give a meal on any domestic flights(even the 6.5 hr hauls-how cheap is that for their national carrier)

[skid]

Done! Qantas to Vancouver $942 on 1st June. Where in SE Asia?

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

[Biscuit]

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

One way, sorry, but you also get to see Melbourne and LA airports!!

[Biscuit]

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

One way, sorry, but you also get to see Melbourne and LA airports!!

[Beagle]

AIR have done crazy specials to LA and Vancouver for $999 return before on grabaseat, usually in the shoulder / off season but if you are price driven and flexible with your dates then the patient puppy gets rewarded
Not too many specials Auckland to Queenstown