AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Last months stats out

Can't do much better than this. The important RSK number drives revenues so double digit top line growth. AIR on a roll and oil price staying lower for longer = huge profits

November market conditions

Air New Zealand carried 1,185,000 passengers during the month of November, 8.7% more than the same period last year. Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) were 12.4% higher on a capacity (ASKs) increase of 9.5%. Group load factors were up 2.3 percentage points to 85.1%.

Bad day on market but AIR up. Good sign.

That $3 beckons - please Santa

[RTFQ]

Last months stats out

Can't do much better than this. The important RSK number drives revenues so double digit top line growth. AIR on a roll and oil price staying lower for longer = huge profits

November market conditions

Air New Zealand carried 1,185,000 passengers during the month of November, 8.7% more than the same period last year. Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) were 12.4% higher on a capacity (ASKs) increase of 9.5%. Group load factors were up 2.3 percentage points to 85.1%.

Bad day on market but AIR up. Good sign.

That $3 beckons - please Santa

The yield was down I suspect shoulder season. RSK's are a reflection of numbers carried. If discounting to fill seats then yield is reduced. I might be misreading the report but I don't think its that flash.

[winner69]

The yield was down I suspect shoulder season. RSK's are a reflection of numbers carried. If discounting to fill seats then yield is reduced. I might be misreading the report but I don't think its that flash.

They said - Group-wide yields for the financial year to date were down 1.2% on the same period last year. Short Haul yields were down 0.2% while Long Haul yields were up 1.1%. Removing the impact of foreign exchange, Group-wide yields were down 4.4%.

The Group-wide yield is declining because long haul (with a lower yield) is growing faster than short haul (which has the higher yield) - its a mix issue which will continue as they roll out more long haul destinations.

RFKs up 12% odd and yield sown 1% will still give revenue growth >10% which is pretty darn good.

Also pleasing is that the November month % growth numbers in most case higher than YTD %ages - momentum building / things are getting better as they year progresses

[Onion]

But the big gains to be made are when AIR breaks through the $3 barrier - once past that it really is blue sky.

...

wait until $3 and then pile in big time.

Educate me please Winner. What is so magical about $3? If it is going to be so good once $3 has been hit then it must be even better at today's price.

[RTFQ]

They said - Group-wide yields for the financial year to date were down 1.2% on the same period last year. Short Haul yields were down 0.2% while Long Haul yields were up 1.1%. Removing the impact of foreign exchange, Group-wide yields were down 4.4%.

The Group-wide yield is declining because long haul (with a lower yield) is growing faster than short haul (which has the higher yield) - its a mix issue which will continue as they roll out more long haul destinations.

RFKs up 12% odd and yield sown 1% will still give revenue growth >10% which is pretty darn good.

Also pleasing is that the November month % growth numbers in most case higher than YTD %ages - momentum building / things are getting better as they year progresses

Got it now Thanks

[RTFQ]

Educate me please Winner. What is so magical about $3? If it is going to be so good once $3 has been hit then it must be even better at today's price.

For TA traders whole numbers often reflect points of market resistance. I think what Winner is suggesting that currently $3 is a point of resistance and when it is broken market inertia will see the share price quickly climb.

[Onion]

For TA traders whole numbers often reflect points of market resistance. I think what Winner is suggesting that currently $3 is a point of resistance and when it is broken market inertia will see the share price quickly climb.

I thought it would be something like that. I am not familiar with all the secret handshakes, flags and crosses that keep the TA'ers occupied.

... although there was a very interesting pattern in my muesli this morning -- looked bit like a plane taking off! Or crashing, depending the how you held the bowl.

[vin]

Strong run over the lasat few weeks, looking good. Today is the inaugural flight for Houston at around 6PM, I'll be there.

[winner69]

Got it now Thanks

Some 5 months into the new financial year and growth got some real momentum going.

Based on the numbers in the update expect H1 passenger revenues to be $225m higher than last year (+11%)

Of that increase $160m coming from long haul - the new routes are paying off eh.

No wonder AIR super confident of H1 earnings n excess of $400m - double last year

What does Percy keep reminding us - price follows earnings

[winner69]

I thought it would be something like that. I am not familiar with all the secret handshakes, flags and crosses that keep the TA'ers occupied.

... although there was a very interesting pattern in my muesli this morning -- looked bit like a plane taking off! Or crashing, depending the how you held the bowl.

It's more than patterns in your muesli mate - its all psychology

Over the last 10 years AIR share price has got close to $3 but never stayed there. I think it went briefly over for a few hours a few months ago.

It seems a point where punters feel they should sell (probably thinking it is not going any higher). That's what happened several times now over the years. Spooky eh.

But what often happens is that once these 'resistance' levels are broken all the bad feeling about $3 (in AIRs case) will be forgotten and the price will head up to another resistance level - maybe $3.50 or $4.00

The best part of the story is that when a long entrenched resistance level is broken than it becomes support - any minor correction will only be to that point.


You asked why not buy big now if the big gains will be made when $3 is breached. Answer is that there is no certainty that $3 will be breached and in this case buying now has limited upside. A matter of waiting for greater certainty.

But for he likes of you onion who have been holding for years now all this doesn't matter does it ....at $2.84 you happy, at $3.50 happier still eh

Do you think AIR share price will go over $3 one day? Be honest with me and not consult you muesli or onion skins.