AIR - Air NZ.

[Joshuatree]

Have laboured through the pricing then 18/11/15 and the share pricing now of re 22 Airlines

AIR has performed in 6th place with re +5% QAN re +5.4%

12 of the Airlines have negative returns

AIR FRANCE the highest return re +21% LUFTHANSA
next with re +12%

Bottom is AIR CHINA,CHINA EAST<CHINA SOUTH -23 to -25%

3 USA Airlines negative Delta AAL UAL

LOW COST RYAN AIR +6.7% EASY JET +1.75%

Forgot about Virgin;VAH is up re 11% in that time biker..

I did this comparison for myself but chucked up here in case it was useful .
Very volatile times esp through that time slot so taken with a big grain of salt.

Take out the chinese airlines because of that and, for some reason the airlines ;seemingly in a pretty good space aren't performing; with a few exceptions. I don't know why and thats been the puzzle for AIR too just not overcoming resistance in these low & getting lower fuel price times. You'd think the profits would be well and truly flowing big(as has be advised) and the s/p following.

One thing i can think of , is as i posted a few threads above as fuel prices drop barriers to entry do too and competition intensifies and margins will drop. but it seems too early for this and it seems most airlines are (ignoring current volatility)all not yet performing; go figure. Maybe its some delayed timing and they're all about to take off as the AIR price is teasingly doing as it may be finally breaking through as others are commenting on. I will believe when i see it. I often miss gaps so please fill in your thoughts. cheers JT

[Hoop]

Joshuatree ...some of your mentioned airlines are here...
The chart below is the "so-called" Global Airline index.....the perception of falling oil prices being a positive effect on Airline share prices is not noticeable here....in fact the bull cycle is looking suspect.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah looks terrible HOOP although USA centric not the full picture. Competition and falling passengers (falling numbers? Or plain Vanilla bad Global/ China sentiment ,chicken littles sky falling?

[winner69]

The $3 mark is a long standing resistance level.

One close above $3 doesn't mean it's been broken through. It needs to consolidate for a few days/weeks around $3 before (psychological) punters will feel comfortable.

Yesterday might be as high as the AIR share price goes. After all it is seen as a cyclical stock.

Then again what is AIR going to do with 70/80 cents of free cash flow - jeez 50 cents or more in dividends would make $3 look ridiculously cheap eh.

Fascinating how this plays out

[pierre]

The $3 mark is a long standing resistance level.

One close above $3 doesn't mean it's been broken through. It needs to consolidate for a few days/weeks around $3 before (psychological) punters will feel comfortable.

Yesterday might be as high as the AIR share price goes. After all it is seen as a cyclical stock.

Then again what is AIR going to do with 70/80 cents of free cash flow - jeez 50 cents or more in dividends would make $3 look ridiculously cheap eh.

Fascinating how this plays out

You're spot on Winner - a lower opening price today at 300. I think AIR will hover slightly above or below the $3.00 mark until the juicy dividend gets closer, then we're bound to see some real action on the SP.

Whether to sell before or after the payout - that's the question. I guess the answer will depend on the commentary from the company on how all those new routes are going, impact of oil prices and intensity of the competition.

Meanwhile, I'm doing my bit to hold up the SP with trips to LA/Houston in April and UK in August/September. May do more depending on how big the dividend is - lol.

[winner69]

AIR hanging in there even with the carnage going on around it

That's a good sign

[Hoop]

The $3 mark is a long standing resistance level.

One close above $3 doesn't mean it's been broken through. It needs to consolidate for a few days/weeks around $3 before (psychological) punters will feel comfortable.

Yesterday might be as high as the AIR share price goes. After all it is seen as a cyclical stock.

Then again what is AIR going to do with 70/80 cents of free cash flow - jeez 50 cents or more in dividends would make $3 look ridiculously cheap eh.

Fascinating how this plays out

Yes it will be fascinating..and maybe we will see the beginning of that play next month..not long to wait...

Hmm..Query....6 Dreamliners would cost 70/80c/share plus more..

I see AIR has 6 on order..Whats the system about payment Winner? Is there any up front payment on these orders....how does this system work?

[777]

Some will be leased.

[mikeybycrikey]

Yes it will be fascinating..and maybe we will see the beginning of that play next month..not long to wait...

Hmm..Query....6 Dreamliners would cost 70/80c/share plus more..

I see AIR has 6 on order..Whats the system about payment Winner? Is there any up front payment on these orders....how does this system work?

On page 14 of the annual results analyst presentation (https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/269077), they outline their planned future capital expenditure.

Looks like $2.6 billion over the four years 2016-2019. Seems to be front loaded, with about $750m this year (which I guess is FY 2016 not CY2016).

Also according to that information, there should be delivery of 3x 787-9, 3x A320 and 6x ATR 72-600 this year and 3x 787-9 next year.

[jetski1999]

sold today took my profit off the table, i will still follow AIR as one of my favorites may buy back in at a future date