AIR - Air NZ.

[Raz]

On a beautiful still evening on Wednesday last week my wife and I flew back from Queenstown and enjoyed the very friendly company of a Canadian tourist beside us in 1C. The flight service manager and attendant were very friendly and professional and the day was made all the more perfect by the 6.5 cent SP rise to finally crack $3 in reasonably convincing fashion.
Renee was happy to serve us another wine on the Koru hour flight, (who knew what was left after the initial passenger service was tipped down the drain ?), and all seemed extremely well with the world.

So I got to thinking...why has the SP been so strong against such a backdrop of thunderclouds wherever you look and what is it about AIR that's so special ? Initial thoughts.
1. We live in a really beautiful country. Really the clarity and purity of Lake Wakitipu is just as superb as I remember it 40 years ago as a kid, (same for Lake Taupo)
2. Queenstown is really going off in a huge way
3. The staff you meet on AIR flights seem to be happy with their jobs and are very friendly and professional, (lets be honest all airlines use similar hardware so its the people and attitude that make a difference
4. I enjoy flying on an airline where I have a meaningful stake and I am sure other Kiwi's enjoy flying their national airline
5. Clearly the market is anticipating a ripper half year result
6. I suspect a lot of baby boomer's have extra time and money on their hands now the kids have left home and are well and truly cognisant of the fact that due to the phenomenon of hedonic adaption, stuff per se doesn't make you happy but varied and interesting travel experiences with family and friends does.
7. With cheaper fuel airfares are coming down and I think people are travelling more.

With so much pollution, crowding, security and other issues elsewhere in the world I think N.Z. tourism has a very bright future especially now our $Kiwi is at a more attractive level.
Anyway that's FWIW my further musings last week...obviously as previously posted I hold the management team in the highest regard and the balance sheet and cash flow are extremely robust. I'm looking forward to the half year result and flying again with AIR soon.

Queenstown is certainly a fun trip. A couple of observations on tourism having traveled the south Island over the holidays and have clients in the sector:

1. More Chinese independent travellers than i have every seen before..tourist operators agree however capacity constrained on hotel/motel accommodation. They can't see any further growth without increased core infrastructure. Also a lot of kiwis missed out on accommodation by not book far enough ahead for the holidays. If the trend continues we will have all have to plan to a greater degree in the future.

Think this point certainly can be considered an issue for the North Island as well. Been a while since Auckland has had a new five star hotel..although some now in the pipeline.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11577606

Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.

Agreed Raz. Car parking and traffic congestion also becoming quite problematic in Queenstown.

[winner69]

Man on radio this morning commenting on the 10 year high shareprice said 'AIR is the diamond of the NZX' (along with SKC)

December operating stats will be interesting

[Beagle]

Man on radio this morning commenting on the 10 year high shareprice said 'AIR is the diamond of the NZX' (along with SKC)

December operating stats will be interesting

Yes mate they will be and are due imminently and I wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded guidance at the same time, (Qan provided same with their Nov operating stat's on 15 Dec $875m - $925m from $367m in pcp).
Mid point if AIR match QAN's growth in EPS we will see $530m underlying before contribution from Virgin up from $216m in pcp. Its interesting however to note that QAN have grown rpk's by 4.7% but AIR have grown rpk's by a whopping 12.2%, their fastest rate of growth in their 75 year history. Join the dots but it arguers very well for the current half and future earnings IMO.

I am sticking with my $1,000m underlying earnings for the full year for now, (plus VAH contribution of $A40-50m)

Expect more analyst upgrades to follow soon including Craigs upgrading higher from $3.40..(Credit to Craigs analyst...been on the money with this stock for some time now)

[skid]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11577606

Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.

Agreed Raz. Car parking and traffic congestion also becoming quite problematic in Queenstown.

Now with direct flights from China it will only get better/worse depending how you look at it--IMO Queenstown is under threat--the very thing that makes it nice is slowly being replaced with hoards of tourists---its a catch 22---Most locals go elsewhere to live (than the main town)--The area will always be stunningly beautiful,but the town is getting a bit full on---good for business though---(not sure AIR will be among those direct flights)

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11577606

Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.

Seem to be heading in right direction @3.15 now, won't be big surprise if gets close to 3.30 or so by the time results are due next month.

[RTFQ]

On a beautiful still evening on Wednesday last week my wife and I flew back from Queenstown and enjoyed the very friendly company of a Canadian tourist beside us in 1C. The flight service manager and attendant were very friendly and professional and the day was made all the more perfect by the 6.5 cent SP rise to finally crack $3 in reasonably convincing fashion.
Renee was happy to serve us another wine on the Koru hour flight, (who knew what was left after the initial passenger service was tipped down the drain ?), and all seemed extremely well with the world.

So I got to thinking...why has the SP been so strong against such a backdrop of thunderclouds wherever you look and what is it about AIR that's so special ? Initial thoughts.
1. We live in a really beautiful country. Really the clarity and purity of Lake Wakitipu is just as superb as I remember it 40 years ago as a kid, (same for Lake Taupo)
2. Queenstown is really going off in a huge way
3. The staff you meet on AIR flights seem to be happy with their jobs and are very friendly and professional, (lets be honest all airlines use similar hardware so its the people and attitude that make a difference
4. I enjoy flying on an airline where I have a meaningful stake and I am sure other Kiwi's enjoy flying their national airline
5. Clearly the market is anticipating a ripper half year result
6. I suspect a lot of baby boomer's have extra time and money on their hands now the kids have left home and are well and truly cognisant of the fact that due to the phenomenon of hedonic adaption, stuff per se doesn't make you happy but varied and interesting travel experiences with family and friends does.
7. With cheaper fuel airfares are coming down and I think people are travelling more.

With so much pollution, crowding, security and other issues elsewhere in the world I think N.Z. tourism has a very bright future especially now our $Kiwi is at a more attractive level.
Anyway that's FWIW my further musings last week...obviously as previously posted I hold the management team in the highest regard and the balance sheet and cash flow are extremely robust. I'm looking forward to the half year result and flying again with AIR soon.

Roger Welcome back. A big thanks on your thoughts re AIR since I joined this thread,$$$$.
I was recently talking with a gentleman who was involved with the partial sale of QZN, 1mill travelers last year and he sees little upside there as hotels at max capacity and at least 4 years from concept to construction of a new one.

[Beagle]

Roger Welcome back. A big thanks on your thoughts re AIR since I joined this thread,$$$$.
I was recently talking with a gentleman who was involved with the partial sale of QZN, 1mill travelers last year and he sees little upside there as hotels at max capacity and at least 4 years from concept to construction of a new one.

You're welcome mate and I see you've done alright since buying in early December around $2.80. I agree that Queenstown in mid January is just absolutely nuts and too busy and I think that's one of the reasons why Tourism N.Z. is embarking on a major marketing campaign aimed at boosting shoulder season tourism.
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/new...november-2015/

Speaking of Queenstown, I see your favourite bit of road Winner has been named the third most dangerous road in the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11577944 Interesting to note that the fifth most dangerous road in the world is called Death Road

[skid]

Just looking early for booking to Southeast Asia-(Jun-Sept)--MAL AK-BK=$1140 Thai -AK-Bk=$1450 .....Looked for the new AK-Viet Nam AIR ...Came out to $1950 (forgot the exact amount).....Am I missing something???

[skid]

You're welcome mate and I see you've done alright since buying in early December around $2.80. I agree that Queenstown in mid January is just absolutely nuts and too busy and I think that's one of the reasons why Tourism N.Z. is embarking on a major marketing campaign aimed at boosting shoulder season tourism.
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/new...november-2015/

Speaking of Queenstown, I see your favourite bit of road Winner has been named the third most dangerous road in the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11577944 Interesting to note that the fifth most dangerous road in the world is called Death Road

My Daughter rode a bike(rented)on that road (Bolivia)---I dont think I would want to be on a bus or truck though