AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Rumour in the airline industry Skid is they're going to nickname that 18 1/2 hour flight the deep vein thrombosis special

It had suffered some reputation damage with the crash of AirAsia Indonesia A320 in late 2014. An inquiry found pilots' reaction to mechanical problem contributed.

The wider airline group had learned from it, said Ismail.

"Every time there are situations that we can avoid, we put it into training."

Its good to note they're committing to learning from their mistakes...I hope they're quick learners

Quite right Winner69. At 68 cps incl of VAH earnings on a PE of 6 (even if this is the top of the cycle and I am not convinced it is) that puts them at $4.08 as well as some very juicy dividends this year plus a special dividend.

PT They must have been super confident to predict normalised earnings before tax would exceed $400m months ago at the annual meeting. Nothing said since and loads have been very strong and RPK's have been well above capacity growth and oil has gone down a LOT since the meeting so all signs point well north of $400m. $500-$550m incl of VAH is my pick.

[Raz]

As a Financial auditor of PLCs in a previous life, 400 million is the only relative firm element, if they have indicated that at the AGM as per Rodger comment..the usual dance will be between both management and auditors plus respective legal teams having a discussion about winding up or down provisions. It will depend if they want to maxamize dividends or smooth income and dividend policy going forward.

Air Asia x pilot program has been called out before..so would never travel with them.

Air has certainly alienated a lot of people with their nickel and dime approach, in pricing and mind set flowing to service. People do not take kindly to tiered service in the same cabin, especially if its in the premium cabin. People will flock to the alternatives if the price is right.

[skid]

Just to set the record straight--I avoid Air Air Asias long haul flights like the plague (but not everyone will---plenty will go for the bargain)
I do use them alot for short flights in Asia and they have always been fine.(and have been great at making it easy to get around at a good price)..point is ..its more competition---why are all these airlines flocking to lil ole NZ? (it may be the very thing that has got everyone so excited--AIRs balance sheet)
I think that there is only so successful an airline can get before others step in for some of the spoils.

A small side bar--my daughter flew Air Asia to OZ from Thailand some years back...She couldnt even get water on the flight except for a few cups of hot water...now thats class--(I ride a motorbike all over Northern Thailand,but Im to old for that kind of crap)
but if it brings down the price of other quality airlines,its good for customers...Having said that I wouldnt underestimate Tony Fernandes,the man behind Air Asia.

[theace]

Trumping Qatar? .... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11581539

[winner69]

Cyclical is Air NZ, earnings wise which leads into valuations and share price.

Top to bottom of cycle was F07 to F12 when EPS steadily declined from 22.8 cents to 6.3 cent. Over those 5 years share price fell from 264 to 86 (June prices). PE over that time averaged about 10

So lets say the current up cycle will also last 5 years - F12 to F17. Low EPS is the 6.3 cents and lets say F17 EPS is 66 cents (Roger won't agree)

Many say you should value cyclicals on mid point earnings and average PE multiple. So average EPS over the cycle is 36 cents - on a PE of 10 gives $3.50 (conservative)

So AIR 'cheap' even when treated as a true cyclical - looks like it.

Even so I think that likely fat dividends will eventually tempt many into buying at higher prices.

[winner69]

AIR share price taking a bashing today

Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?

It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday

One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.

Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend

[JohnnyTheHorse]

AIR share price taking a bashing today

Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?

It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday

One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.

Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend

Just a bit of capitulation from some of your mates eh?

[Jay]

With all this profit they are supposedly making, pity they cannot employ someone to check/update their website. Just had a look under Special Deals/Melbourne and all the dates say 2015.

And I think it pertains to 2015 and not supposedly 2016
A couple of other cities I looked at seem to be Ok!

[Beagle]

AIR share price taking a bashing today

Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?

It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday

One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.

Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend

Latecomers to the party and those that bought purely on TA will be worried. Me...I've seen this before. I maintain its better to keep a close eye on the fundamentals as well as the technicals and sometimes they're at odds with each other and you are best to follow your gut. Technically its looks bad the $3.00 support level was broken. The next test if it comes and a big one would be a breech of the 100 day MA currently about $2.76.

I think its a little more than nervous sheeples, clearly some institutional shareholders have been spooked by all the recent press releases about new carriers coming here and expanded services by existing carriers. Perhaps it all got a bit too much all at once and they forgot that AIR are expanding too. Perhaps they haven't noticed the growth rate of 17% in revenue passenger kilometres is double their Asia and Australasian competitors and in fact about four times that of Qantas.

Many will be imagining a bloodbath of cheap fare opportunities and others saying this year's earnings are definitely the top e.t.c.

Me, I have yet to see one plausible explanation of why analysts are forecasting similar eps earnings for QAN in FY17 and FY18 to Fy16 and yet analysts are calling the peak for AIR in Fy16 with really substantial falls in those latter years ?
If Airlines are indeed cyclical then they're all cyclical right and Qan can't be immune.

This dichotomy in the way Australian analysts are valuing QAN and the way N.Z. analysts are valuing AIR is very difficult to understand.

How does one explain this, two direct competitors operating in close geographical proximity, both commodity based economies, both subject to ostensibly similar macro economic factors, tourism, oil prices, competition, global economic factors e.t.c.

At times like this I prefer to rely on my own assessment of management and the future prospects of the company. We now have three analysts valuing AIR at $3.40 and I believe they're all being quite conservative.

Be greedy when others are fearful Warren Buffet

[Baa_Baa]

Technically it doesn't look all that bad with modest volume through on Friday.

The daily breached the steep rising trend line, then dropped below only to recover perfectly to the 50EMA. On the weekly it closed perfectly on the 10EMA, which is a signal but not the trigger for a sell on my chart. Further price weakness below $2.90 would trigger a momentum sell on my weekly with confirmation (if procrastinating) at breach $2.86 the next lower rising trend line, but certainly a sell on both charts if $2.75 is breached being the daily 200MA and weekly 39EMA.

Who knows why it bucks around like a rodeo, but it does. So the charts are helpful for those looking to preserve capital in fall and buy weakness in a bounce. Probably a bit too active for some investors.