AIR - Air NZ.

[skid]

Hi Poet. I think there's two factors at play there. 1. 2010 was a low point for the airline coping with the fallout from the GFC and the effects of six billion dollars, (that's not a typo) of money that was wiped out by the collapse of dozens of finance companies in N.Z. Remembering that the majority of bookings are from Kiwi's you simply cannot lose that vast amount of money from people's personal wealth and while the memory is fresh without it having quite an effect on how people chose to spend their remaining disposable income. In short, people spend a lot less on travel when they feel poor.

2. The stock is presently under priced because it seems many (despite being in a period of pretty challenging economic times both nationally and internationally), think we're at the peak of the earnings cycle. My contention is that if oil was somewhat higher (say $70), and there was far more national and international economic growth I think AIR would actually do better than in this cheap oil low growth era where yields are compromised. Regarding the whole cyclical thing, a short while back I expressed my thoughts that I believed it was strange that the consensus analyst forecast for FY18 earnings was 32 cps given that analysts didn't see the same level of cyclicality with QAN earnings. I see analysts are starting to see my point of view and consensus eps for that year is now over 40.8 cps a pretty remarkable 28% increase. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/

A couple of other interesting facts came out of that databook. Have a look at the projected average aircraft age over the next few years and check out the number of full time employees which was at its lowest point in 2015 despite the growth. New efficiencies and strong RPK growth are also part and parcel of why future earnings will be supercharged and in my view lower oil is less of an influence than people are realising due to its effects on yields.

Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)

[Raz]

Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)

Well looking at the share price Skid..that will be all of us soon!

[Beagle]

Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)

No question its been a tough start to the year for most markets including ours. Add in significant new competition for AIR and you've got the recipe for some genuine pain.
That said, unemployment unexpectedly fell last month, interest rates are plumbing 60 year lows and headed lower so anyone with debt has materially more disposable income and consumers are faring well from cheap petrol further assisting disposable income. Factor in cheaper airfares and I don't see demand changing much but the market is clearly worried about yields going forward.

[skid]

Yes,I think alot are getting caught in the collateral damage atm--the volatile nature of airlines has perhaps amplified it a bit. (whens the last time anyone has seem gold go up 5% in a day)--might be a storm in a teacup but it seems like the public is not thinking ATM or AIR--they are thinking ..the stock market..

[Baa_Baa]

Could be a rally later to close above the 200MA, but currently it's just gone below. Plenty here see 200MA as a significant turning point.

[percy]

Could be a rally later to close above the 200MA, but currently it's just gone below. Plenty here see 200MA as a significant turning point.

Still looks great using a 399 day EMA.!!
The uptrend is intact.!

[Valuegrowth]

Commodity users are winners. Cheaper jet fuel thanks to falling oil prices has helped Air Lines including AIR NZ. According to new research from World Travel Market London, the travel industry looks set for further growth in 2016. This will lead to growth in other industry such as food, hotels and restaurants etc as well.

http://www.accordgroup.co.uk/blog/gl...l-outlook-2016

Global travel outlook for 2016

[Baa_Baa]

Still looks great using a 399 day EMA.!!
The uptrend is intact.!

17 pips down -5.9% in one day, sliced through the 200MA. It's been a tough past three weeks. The big uptrend looks fine at around $2.30 and plenty of technical supports before then. This week was a technical sell on my weekly chart, but if it all turns to custard the Die Hards might watch for the 'double death cross' for a late but save-yr-butt exit ... that's the 200MA crossing down through the 400MA.

[Beagle]

Great management,lead by a brilliant CEO.
Great staff.
Great Planes.ie the right planes to do the job.Newish fleet better fuel economy and lower maintance costs.
Great Routes.
Great upgrades of Koru lounges.
Great deal more people travelling to NZ.
Great deal more people travelling within NZ.
Buns on seats drive profits.eps growth will drive the share price.
I would think you/we are "well positioned."

Nothing material has changed and Percy summed it up well earlier this month. Other airlines I follow have seen much lesser falls in their SP's in recent weeks. I think the fall is overdone but that's not to say for sure the correction doesn't have some distance to travel. Those who believe that fundamentally this is an extremely well run airline could have quite an opportunity at some point in the near future. Fortune favours the brave...

[skid]

Monday should show how much of this is AIR and how much is the share markets in general(which bounced Friday,because of a rise in oil)
If it bounces it will show that its because of the markets--which means a rise in oil has been good for AIR (crazy world isnt it)